US Census Bureau data for Austin and other cities

[Echostatic]

I expect Burnet to be added by the end of the decade, once the Thomas Ranch development kicks off and growth up towards Bertram has continued. That'll probably push the country across the 25% commute threshold. I think Milam will take longer because you have to go ten miles past Taylor to reach the county line and there's still so much empty land closer to the Samsung plant, between Taylor and Hutto.

[KevinFromTexas]

Originally Posted by JoninATX

No change for Austin. Here are some noticable changes that were made across Texas. Waco +1, Corpus Christi +1, Lubbock +3 now extends to New Mexico, San Antonio -1, +2, Houston +1, DFW +1.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-conten...etin-23-01.pdf

Which ones did San Antonio lose and gain? Lubbock gaining three is surprising.

[KevinFromTexas]

Originally Posted by Lobotomizer

What surprises me is that Austin's MSA is still the same 5 county area it's been since 1990 when there was essentially 1/3 the population as there is now. I really would have thought Burnet, Blanco, and Lee would've been added to the MSA, or at least been part of an Austin CSA by now. Apparently there's just not enough commuting from those counties.

I suppose it might be different for other people, but I can count on one hand the number of times I've been to or through those three counties you listed during the last 10 years. I just haven't had a reason to go out there, and while I know the numbers are based on commuters, it still suggests a major disconnect between those areas and Austin. I've been through Lee County more often, but only on the way to Houston.

[JoninATX]

Originally Posted by KevinFromTexas

Which ones did San Antonio lose and gain? Lubbock gaining three is surprising.

San Antonio lost Frio County, and gained Gillespie, Kerr County.

[DougRockstead]

Driving from San Antonio to Fredericksburg definitely seems a shorter drive than drving from Autsin to Fredericksburg. I travel for around the state for a living. Just saying

Originally Posted by ILUVSAT

This is why one has the right to question/distrust the federal government...They put the Fredericksburg Micropolitan Area into SA's CSA - yet all of Gillespie County is in Austin's Media Market (who's area is also designated by the same federal government).

[wwmiv]

Originally Posted by ILUVSAT

This is why one has the right to question/distrust the federal government...They put the Fredericksburg Micropolitan Area into SA's CSA - yet all of Gillespie County is in Austin's Media Market (who's area is also designated by the same federal government).

No reason to distrust what are straightforward definitions. There are plenty of examples of counties that are in one media market but the general commuting patterns ate connected to another workforce market.

[wwmiv]

Originally Posted by JoninATX

One would think by now commuter patterns in both Burnet and Blanco County would have been high enough to become apart of the Austin MSA or at least form a CSA.

Burnet, Lee, and Milam have all been just below the threshold for inclusion for years and Blanco is a competition between Austin and San Antonio to see who gets it first. Comal is in a similar boat but in reverse, where Travis’s commuter share is just behind Bexar’s, so it is always possible Austin steals it at some point.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by Lobotomizer

What surprises me is that Austin's MSA is still the same 5 county area it's been since 1990 when there was essentially 1/3 the population as there is now. I really would have thought Burnet, Blanco, and Lee would've been added to the MSA, or at least been part of an Austin CSA by now. Apparently there's just not enough commuting from those counties.

I think Covid and remote work came just at the wrong time (as far as Austin is concerned in this matter).


Looking at Burnet county specifically, the census says 21,373 commuters.

Of that, 2476 go to Travis, 1564 Williamson, 216 Hays. Or 20%.

It was 19% last time. So we haven't yet seen the big jump in commuters we're all expecting eventually.
It looks like the next time the census would potentially update this is actually all the way out in 2028 (the five year update). However, the census expects Covid commuter disruption to show up in that data and

"We note that changes in commuting behavior as a result of the pandemic could result in a reduction in the five-year average ACS estimates of commuting which will contribute to the planned CBSA update in 2028. This anticipated reduction could result, if no other adjustments are made, in a large number of outlying counties getting dropped from their CBSAs, at least until the next time commuting data is updated in 2033."
https://www.federalregister.gov/docu...tistical-areas

so Burnet (and others) might be facing headwinds for inclusion then.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by Novacek

I think Covid and remote work came just at the wrong time (as far as Austin is concerned in this matter).


Looking at Burnet county specifically, the census says 21,373 commuters.

Of that, 2476 go to Travis, 1564 Williamson, 216 Hays. Or 20%.

It was 19% last time. So we haven't yet seen the big jump in commuters we're all expecting eventually.
It looks like the next time the census would potentially update this is actually all the way out in 2028 (the five year update). However, the census expects Covid commuter disruption to show up in that data and

"We note that changes in commuting behavior as a result of the pandemic could result in a reduction in the five-year average ACS estimates of commuting which will contribute to the planned CBSA update in 2028. This anticipated reduction could result, if no other adjustments are made, in a large number of outlying counties getting dropped from their CBSAs, at least until the next time commuting data is updated in 2033."
https://www.federalregister.gov/docu...tistical-areas

so Burnet (and others) might be facing headwinds for inclusion then.

Actually looking at the recent numbers, the dark horse Lee may actually be closing in.

7911 total commuters. 1122 to Travis, 172 to Williamson, 59 to Hays. 17 %. It was 14% last time, so that's a pretty big jump.

[paul78701]

Originally Posted by Novacek

I think Covid and remote work came just at the wrong time (as far as Austin is concerned in this matter).


Looking at Burnet county specifically, the census says 21,373 commuters.

Of that, 2476 go to Travis, 1564 Williamson, 216 Hays. Or 20%.

It was 19% last time. So we haven't yet seen the big jump in commuters we're all expecting eventually.
It looks like the next time the census would potentially update this is actually all the way out in 2028 (the five year update). However, the census expects Covid commuter disruption to show up in that data and

"We note that changes in commuting behavior as a result of the pandemic could result in a reduction in the five-year average ACS estimates of commuting which will contribute to the planned CBSA update in 2028. This anticipated reduction could result, if no other adjustments are made, in a large number of outlying counties getting dropped from their CBSAs, at least until the next time commuting data is updated in 2033."
https://www.federalregister.gov/docu...tistical-areas

so Burnet (and others) might be facing headwinds for inclusion then.

One wonders if they might need to revisit the criteria used as the nature of some work/commuting changes.

[papertowelroll]

Originally Posted by Novacek

I think Covid and remote work came just at the wrong time (as far as Austin is concerned in this matter).

It makes sense that with increased remote work you will see more self selection with remote workers being more likely to choose far flung places to live and, even moreso, people already living in far flung places choosing remote work over a hellacious commute.

I see that a lot in the office water cooler talk with people living close-in not minding coming to the office (me) but people in Liberty Hill and such really wanting to WFH. Not surprising by any means; car commuting sucks.

[futuresooner]

Originally Posted by ILUVSAT

This is why one has the right to question/distrust the federal government...They put the Fredericksburg Micropolitan Area into SA's CSA - yet all of Gillespie County is in Austin's Media Market (who's area is also designated by the same federal government).

Same could be said for some counties with their media markets not aligning with the National Weather Service office serving them. I can think of a few in Illinois and Tennessee right away in that regard.

[Green Country]

Originally Posted by JoninATX

No change for Austin. Here are some noticable changes that were made across Texas. Waco +1, Corpus Christi +1, Lubbock +3 now extends to New Mexico, San Antonio -1, +2, Houston +1, DFW +1.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-conten...etin-23-01.pdf

I'm not seeing a +1 for DFW. Where are you seeing that? FWIW, the prior (2010 census) delineation was as shown below, and that is what I see in the 2023 revised delineation:

Dallas-Plano-Irving metropolitan division:
Collin
Dallas
Denton
Ellis
Hunt
Kaufman
Rockwall
Fort Worth-Arlingon-Grapevine metropolitan division:
Johnson
Parker
Tarrant
Wise

DFW's Combined Statistical Area added Hopkins County (the Sulphur Springs micropolitan area), population 36,787, but the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area does not appear to have had any counties added.

[JoninATX]

Originally Posted by Green Country

I'm not seeing a +1 for DFW. Where are you seeing that? FWIW, the prior (2010 census) delineation was as shown below, and that is what I see in the 2023 revised delineation:

Dallas-Plano-Irving metropolitan division:
Collin
Dallas
Denton
Ellis
Hunt
Kaufman
Rockwall
Fort Worth-Arlingon-Grapevine metropolitan division:
Johnson
Parker
Tarrant
Wise

DFW's Combined Statistical Area added Hopkins County (the Sulphur Springs micropolitan area), population 36,787, but the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan area does not appear to have had any counties added.

Yea, I got the CSA and MSA all mixed up.

[drummer]

I have a hard time seeing Sulphur Springs and the vicinity as part of the DFW CSA...but maybe so? I'm beginning to feel like DFW now goes from Texarkana to Wichita Falls and then from basically Tulsa down to almost Waco. Throw in Tyler for good measure, just in case.

Back to our neck of the woods.... Burnet and Blanco counties should definitely be included in later counts for Austin with the growth we're seeing. Lee and Milam will probably come as well with all of the eastward growth. It's only a matter of time. I drove out to see some family in Marble Falls recently and noticed that, on top of the developments I already knew about at 71/281, there are several others in the works going right to the Burnet/Blanco county lines. That intersection is going to blow up soon. Thomas Ranch, as others have mentioned, is going to take that explosive Lakeway area growth across the Pedernales River, and then Spicewood (Burnet County) is going to blow up due to growth in both directions.

Hwy 29 growth is insane. Will it go west of Liberty Hill significantly or will it travel more up 183A? Time will tell, but probably both. Either way, that will take it into Burnet County at some point as well.

And the connections with Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood MSA are only increasing.

[SproutingTowers]

Originally Posted by drummer

I have a hard time seeing Sulphur Springs and the vicinity as part of the DFW CSA...but maybe so? I'm beginning to feel like DFW now goes from Texarkana to Wichita Falls and then from basically Tulsa down to almost Waco. Throw in Tyler for good measure, just in case.

Back to our neck of the woods.... Burnet and Blanco counties should definitely be included in later counts for Austin with the growth we're seeing. Lee and Milam will probably come as well with all of the eastward growth. It's only a matter of time. I drove out to see some family in Marble Falls recently and noticed that, on top of the developments I already knew about at 71/281, there are several others in the works going right to the Burnet/Blanco county lines. That intersection is going to blow up soon. Thomas Ranch, as others have mentioned, is going to take that explosive Lakeway area growth across the Pedernales River, and then Spicewood (Burnet County) is going to blow up due to growth in both directions.

Hwy 29 growth is insane. Will it go west of Liberty Hill significantly or will it travel more up 183A? Time will tell, but probably both. Either way, that will take it into Burnet County at some point as well.

And the connections with Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood MSA are only increasing.

I also noticed there is almost a sea of rooftops from Bee Cave to Marble Falls, and the traffic was just as heavy like going to Dripping Springs.

[drummer]

Originally Posted by SproutingTowers

I also noticed there is almost a sea of rooftops from Bee Cave to Marble Falls, and the traffic was just as heavy like going to Dripping Springs.

I think most of the rooftops stop at the Pedernales currently, but they're certainly solid until that point. They don't really start up again until some of the newer neighborhoods at 71/281. That said, this will change very soon based on everything in the pipeline. Traffic on 71 has been nuts for years. While I generally don't like freeways because of the sprawl that it encourages, something's gotta give... With more households of 2-5 people in each, that's a lot more cars on the road.

There are also an increasing number of multifamily developments in Burnet County due to affordability. I know this is true in Marble Falls but I would assume Burnet is also facing similar issues. Working class folks can't afford to live there and likely won't be able to afford most of the homes under construction (Granite Shoals and Kingsland are growing more as a result). There are real struggles with some of the these smaller areas just outside of the Austin metro.

[JoninATX]

January 2023 estimates are out.

Austin Metropolitan Area 2,448,463

https://demographics.texas.gov/Estimates/2022/

[GoldenBoot]

Originally Posted by JoninATX

January 2023 estimates are out.

Austin Metropolitan Area 2,448,463

https://demographics.texas.gov/Estimates/2022/

The official "estimates" are provided by the U.S. Census Bureau - and the July 1, 2023 estimate is not going to be released until this coming spring.

Just be careful in quoting TDCs numbers.

Austin's MSA should be around 2.49 million on July 1, 2023 and roughly 2.56 million as of July 1, 2024. I'm quite confident in saying Austin has already passed the 2.5 million mark.

[gillynova]

GoldenBoot, what are San Antonio's numbers looking like? Will Austin's MSA pass it sometime soon?