Time to update and make my final point.
QUESTION:
Does anybody know if the $16.7 billion in estimated tax revenue was figured in today's $'s or is it estimated total $'s including escalators over time?
According to
Transportation 2050 Funding and Tax Revenue Distributions 35% of the funds are designated for (new) Light Rail. That amounts to nearly $6 billion. To the City's credit this is based only on projected taxes and doesn't include the potential of Federal FTA grants which could potentially jump that figure by maybe 35%. Using a more conservative $4 billion base figure and adding 35% yields $5.4 billion; then add back in the $2 billion in unmatched funds would mean a Grand Total of $7.4 billion.
I know that Light Rail is sexy and fixed lines do more predictably lead to private sector investments but well-done BRT has also proven to lead to add-on investments. Cleveland's Health Line BRT is Exhibit A for this.
Since
exit2lef and I have agreed that planned light rail extensions intended to be complete by 2023 are all a Go and that the I-10 corridor is ideal for BRT then it shall be thusly done.
I'll suggest that that the Paradise Valley corridor will get built and will likely cost in the neighborhood of $2 billion.
If Phoenix would reallocate some of that light rail money to rebuilding Complete Streets including a high level of enhanced bus service they could change the whole look and feel of much of the central city and many of the corridors in and out.
Why make the same mistakes as Denver? To be fair RTD built out rail lines at $58 million per mile and that cost can't be duplicated - and is similar in cost to Phoenix's $70 million per mile for an
urban line. Maybe if like Miami, Denver waits 3 decades it will all have been worth it. In Phoenix's case utilizing some vision (like with the Paradise Valley line) is a fair consideration but still... all those Green Streets that could be done? Green Streets improvements
combined with enhanced bus service should surely lead to lots of private sector investment.
Quote:
Originally Posted by exit2lef
To give a specific example, dedicated bus lanes and other BRT features would be appropriate on Bell Road. That's a heavily traveled corridor that needs better transit service. It would make no sense to build light rail there because it is so far removed from current track and is fundamentally, and probably permanently, suburban and auto-centric in design.
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Not only would I agree but the best you're likely to see is some level of enhanced service initially and maybe at some future point designated curbside lanes.