The Canadian Electric Vehicle thread

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by trueviking

This might be true if your choice is between a $45,000 gas SUV and a $52,000 electric SUV, but I have never and will never buy a new car. Even though I can afford it. I could buy a $10,000 used Fiat 500 right now that would last me 10 years. No way an EV would be cheaper. Until I can confidently buy a used EV at 1/3 the price of new, like I can for a gas car, I won't be purchasing an EV.

Are you considering the overall cost of ownership or just the up front purchase price? That's always an important question when comparing EV and ICE vehicles.

[hipster duck]

Not sure if this belongs in this thread, but does anybody plan on replacing a gas car with an electric vehicle that is not a car? By that I mean some form of micromobility, like an electric bike or scooter.

I'm not sure what the size of this market is, but I think a lot of people own cars at the margins, so to speak. Either they're too poor to afford the car, and car ownership has gotten a lot more expensive with the cost of gas, insurance and the cost of cars themselves, or they can afford to own a car, but the car sees very marginal use. Now that cars have become more expensive to operate - and now that used cars are fetching a premium - it's difficult to justify hanging on to that second car.

Also, electric bikes are not as dorky as they used to be, and don't automatically connote a lower class status. Bike infrastructure has improved quite a bit in the last 5 years, too.

[trueviking]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

Are you considering the overall cost of ownership or just the up front purchase price? That's always an important question when comparing EV and ICE vehicles.

for sure. With a $30,000+ head start between a used fuel efficient ICE and a new EV, there's no way the EV catches up.

[AuxTown]

Bought my Model 3 in 2019 and no looking back! Love the car, my commutes are more comfortable and fun, it's faster then any of my previous 3 series BMWs (by a mile!), I am saving a ton of money on fuel (less than 3c per km to drive EV) and it seems to be holding its value. I'm not sure where the debate here is folks. Unless you drive 400+ km per day (extremely small number of people) then there is no reason to have range anxiety outside of travel to a remote cottage or other property with no electricity. The price gap is closing between EV and ICE and will likely flip in the next 10-15 years with battery tech getting cheaper and more efficient every year.

So it seems the only people making predictions otherwise are those with vested interests in the oil industry. We won't rid ourselves of oil for a VERY long time but for driving I expect we are not far off.

[drew]

^ we will all get there eventually it seems.

For me personally, there are at least a few more ~$10k or less used ICE cars in my future before my household goes EV.

And by then, I want all of you EV types to work out all the kinks.

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

That's quite the prediction you're making there.

For starters, 15-20 year old cars don't have much value today in any form. If you've put 300-400K on it, it's served its purpose.

Making predictions about what's happening beyond your lifetime are interesting, but serve little purpose for your own decision making.

Anybody considering the purchase of a brand new car in 2022 should really look seriously at an EV. In 5 years, your 2022 ICE car will have depreciated significantly IMO.

This is why if I ever thought of a EV in some distant future {because right now it is not an option due to living in a condo} I would lease.

As far as looking into the future, it exemplifies how EVs are a non-option for 95% of the world's population. We in the West have a biased and spoiled view that what works for us will work for everyone else. The reality is that the vast majority of people on this planet will NEVER have access to home recharging due to being poorer and urbanites overwhelmingly living in apts. For those BILLIONS of people, EVs will only be an option when the eventualities I described become realities.

Also in most of the world, they don't have the electric supply to transform over to EVs and if they did they would have to create it by expanding their fossil fuel electric production which more than negates the benefits of EV's environmental. That's not just in poorer countries but also wealthy ones as we are seeing with Germany that can't rid itself of Russian natural gas as 30% of their electric supply comes from fossil fuels.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by trueviking

for sure. With a $30,000+ head start between a used fuel efficient ICE and a new EV, there's no way the EV catches up.

No, what I was asking about was the comparison between a used EV and a used ICE vehicle. Obviously a new EV isn't going to be a reasonable comparison to a used ICE vehicle, but when you say you'd only consider a used EV if it was 1/3 the purchase price of a new EV, you don't explain how or why you arrived at that number.

[travis3000]

Originally Posted by trueviking

This might be true if your choice is between a $45,000 gas SUV and a $52,000 electric SUV, but I have never and will never buy a new car. Even though I can afford it. I could buy a $10,000 used Fiat 500 right now that would last me 10 years. No way an EV would be cheaper. Until I can confidently buy a used EV at 1/3 the price of new, like I can for a gas car, I won't be purchasing an EV.

If your goal is to buy the cheapest car out there, then yes gasoline is a more economical option right now. But there are quite a few people who look at more than just a price tag when buying a vehicle. For instance... speed, handling, brand, safety, cargo space, seating, options, etc. Of course you can go out and buy some piece of junk that has no options. If that's your goal then yes the used base model gasoline car will win the cost game.

I was in a totally different boat however. Last year I was in the market for a new car. My goal was to upgrade to something higher end. I have always driven economy cars for most of my life (Elantra, Civic, basic model used Equinox, etc). So my options were: Audi A4, Acura TLX, Lexus IS 300, BMW 3 Series, etc. I went with Tesla 3 because even though the car was more money, the financing was cheaper, and the carrying costs per month were lower due to no gas/oil change, etc. Over the life of the vehicle I was saving thousands upon thousands even with the higher ticket price. The Lexus was 13K cheaper , but at $2/litre for premium gas , that's $6000 per year in gasoline for my driving habits. Doesn't take long for the Tesla to win.

In the future there will for sure be more economical EVs to compete with the Honda Civics, Mazda 3s, and Toyota Corollas of the world. And in time the used EV market will catch up to the gasoline market. EV's might not make sense for you at this time, and I totally get that. But for many other people it makes sense now.

[trueviking]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

No, what I was asking about was the comparison between a used EV and a used ICE vehicle. Obviously a new EV isn't going to be a reasonable comparison to a used ICE vehicle, but when you say you'd only consider a used EV if it was 1/3 the purchase price of a new EV, you don't explain how or why you arrived at that number.

That is my issue though. I wont buy a new car, ever. So my options are, a barely used EV that costs as much as a new one or a fuel efficient ICE that costs 1/3 the price. I also wouldn't buy a used EV that was old enough to be affordable because an old battery needs to be replaced.

I'm not sure what the numbers are that would make a used EV more attractive to me. But as long as there's tens of thousands of dollars between them, it's not even close to being an option. EV's aren't free. They still take many years of operation to become cheaper overall.

I also don't drive very much, so the numbers would likely never work out.

[trueviking]

Originally Posted by homebucket

I think used EVs will be affordable eventually. Remember, we're still in the infancy stage of EVs with Tesla pretty being the only viable high volume EV up until this year. As more and more people buy new EVs (and as more affordable ones finally start to come out), the more and more will be available on the used market at more palatable price. I predict it will be another 5-6 years until we start seeing used EVs in the $10-15k range. Right now, you can find used Model S's in the low $30ks.

they will be more affordable eventually for sure. But I wont be in the market for one until battery life is longer than 8 years and others have proven to me that EV's are reliable long term.

[trueviking]

Originally Posted by AuxTown

Bought my Model 3 in 2019 and no looking back! Love the car, my commutes are more comfortable and fun, it's faster then any of my previous 3 series BMWs (by a mile!), I am saving a ton of money on fuel (less than 3c per km to drive EV) and it seems to be holding its value. I'm not sure where the debate here is folks. Unless you drive 400+ km per day (extremely small number of people) then there is no reason to have range anxiety outside of travel to a remote cottage or other property with no electricity. The price gap is closing between EV and ICE and will likely flip in the next 10-15 years with battery tech getting cheaper and more efficient every year.

So it seems the only people making predictions otherwise are those with vested interests in the oil industry. We won't rid ourselves of oil for a VERY long time but for driving I expect we are not far off.

10-15 years is a long time. That's 2 or 3 cars away for most people.

The average person spends $2,000 per year on gasoline. It still takes a long time to make up the difference between a used $15,000 ICE and a new $45,000+ ICE

for me personally, I ride a bike all but in winter so an EV isn't worth the added cost.

[homebucket]

Originally Posted by trueviking

10-15 years is a long time. That's 2 or 3 cars away for most people.

The average person spends $2,000 per year on gasoline. It still takes a long time to make up the difference between a used $15,000 ICE and a new $45,000+ ICE

for me personally, I ride a bike all but in winter so an EV isn't worth the added cost.

The most economical option is no car at all, especially if you can bike or walk places. I think in your particular use case, most here would agree that an EV would not be necessary for such low, seasonal usage.

Right now, EVs make the most sense for people that drive a lot and only like to buy new cars.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by trueviking

This might be true if your choice is between a $45,000 gas SUV and a $52,000 electric SUV, but I have never and will never buy a new car. Even though I can afford it. I could buy a $10,000 used Fiat 500 right now that would last me 10 years. No way an EV would be cheaper. Until I can confidently buy a used EV at 1/3 the price of new, like I can for a gas car, I won't be purchasing an EV.

There's only one way to make used EVs cheaper. That is by increasing the supply of used EVs. And there's only one way to increase the supply of used EVs. That is more new EVs.

Since you bike half the year and only buy used for under $10k, it's very likely that EVs will probably be out of reach for you, for at least another decade. The good news is that (current supply crunch notwithstanding), your selection of used gas vehicles should improve substantially with time as EVs really start to bite and tank the values of gas vehicles.

[logan5]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

There's only one way to make used EVs cheaper. That is by increasing the supply of used EVs. And there's only one way to increase the supply of used EVs. That is more new EVs.

Since you bike half the year and only buy used for under $10k, it's very likely that EVs will probably be out of reach for you, for at least another decade. The good news is that (current supply crunch notwithstanding), your selection of used gas vehicles should improve substantially with time as EVs really start to bite and tank the values of gas vehicles.

We'll see how the industry evolves. eScooters and other micro mobility devices have exploded over the last few years, so I could see a scenario where micromobility devices and the electric car meet somewhere in the middle to create a 1 passenger micro car that is affordable to almost anyone.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by trueviking

That is my issue though. I wont buy a new car, ever. So my options are, a barely used EV that costs as much as a new one or a fuel efficient ICE that costs 1/3 the price. I also wouldn't buy a used EV that was old enough to be affordable because an old battery needs to be replaced.

I'm not sure what the numbers are that would make a used EV more attractive to me. But as long as there's tens of thousands of dollars between them, it's not even close to being an option. EV's aren't free. They still take many years of operation to become cheaper overall.

I also don't drive very much, so the numbers would likely never work out.

It isn't true that all older EVs require battery replacement. Their battery won't have the same range as when it was new, but the batteries are designed to last the life of the vehicle. I think that's just one of many examples of EV misconceptions going around since it's still a fairly new product to most people.

[AuxTown]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

It isn't true that all older EVs require battery replacement. Their battery won't have the same range as when it was new, but the batteries are designed to last the life of the vehicle. I think that's just one of many examples of EV misconceptions going around since it's still a fairly new product to most people.

It's definitely fake news when it comes to Tesla. In fact, the older Teslas (like the 2012 Model S) are still going strong. Many are suggesting that the batteries may outlive the car and I've seen lifetime estimates of a million miles on each battery.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by trueviking

This might be true if your choice is between a $45,000 gas SUV and a $52,000 electric SUV, but I have never and will never buy a new car. Even though I can afford it. I could buy a $10,000 used Fiat 500 right now that would last me 10 years. No way an EV would be cheaper. Until I can confidently buy a used EV at 1/3 the price of new, like I can for a gas car, I won't be purchasing an EV.

That's fine, but you're not the target market. EVs will get cheaper over time, especially when you consider TCO and not just the up front cost.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by AuxTown

It's definitely fake news when it comes to Tesla. In fact, the older Teslas (like the 2012 Model S) are still going strong. Many are suggesting that the batteries may outlive the car and I've seen lifetime estimates of a million miles on each battery.

Yep at least 500,000 kms seems to be a good benchmark. At that point you are considering your options in replacing a $10K battery or junking the car, similar to an ICE in that range that needs a new engine, tranny, or both.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by logan5

We'll see how the industry evolves. eScooters and other micro mobility devices have exploded over the last few years, so I could see a scenario where micromobility devices and the electric car meet somewhere in the middle to create a 1 passenger micro car that is affordable to almost anyone.

If there was a market for small vehicles, there'd be a lot more Smart Cars on the road and fewer pickup trucks.

We will never see microcars take off. If you can be in a single occupant vehicle, there's almost no point designing it for the roads. Design it to use bike paths and the market is bigger (no license needed) and costs lower (certification, safety standards, etc).

[theman23]

Originally Posted by AuxTown

Bought my Model 3 in 2019 and no looking back! Love the car, my commutes are more comfortable and fun, it's faster then any of my previous 3 series BMWs (by a mile!), I am saving a ton of money on fuel (less than 3c per km to drive EV) and it seems to be holding its value. I'm not sure where the debate here is folks. Unless you drive 400+ km per day (extremely small number of people) then there is no reason to have range anxiety outside of travel to a remote cottage or other property with no electricity. The price gap is closing between EV and ICE and will likely flip in the next 10-15 years with battery tech getting cheaper and more efficient every year.

So it seems the only people making predictions otherwise are those with vested interests in the oil industry. We won't rid ourselves of oil for a VERY long time but for driving I expect we are not far off.

whoareyoutalkingto.gif