I do not have a lot of strong thoughts on Lindbergh Field; however, I have some that I want to forward.
The Ballot Measure:
The measure taken to voters was not a referendum on kicking the military out of Miramar and the region. It was strictly about seeking an advisory vote from the public seeking an endorsement to allow local leaders to 'talk' with the DoD about a joint use facility at Miramar; using approximately 3,000 out of 23,000 total acres. The 'no' vote did not foreclose future possibilities.
The measure read:
"Should Airport Authority and government official’s work toward obtaining 3,000 acres at MCAS Miramar by 2020 for a commercial airport, providing certain conditions are met?"
A Yes vote meant :
"“YES” vote means that you would support the Airport Authority’s recommendation to work with other governmental officials to obtain a portion of MCAS Miramar as the site for future development of the San Diego International Airport, including all the conditions specified in the measure. "
That said it is my opinion that other possibilities exist that could be taken back to voters. For sake of conversation and ignoring certain aspects, such as cost and political will... one option could be the region building a new Miramar equivalent facility elsewhere in the region, at local cost, so that military maintains synergy with other local DoD facilities. Maybe it's in Ramona? And, Miramar is then converted to a commercial airport. Voters may support a measure that keeps the military here vs the perception of kciking them out.
Again, I remain relatively indifferent about Lindbergh Field or Miramar. I am more interested in the impact of the approved California High-Speed Rail project, and station and network implications to San Diego. For background purposes I note that California high-speed rail will have stations in Temecula/Murrieta, Escondido, University City, and Downtown San Diego. See image snapped from the CHSRA website….
High-speed rail and Lindbergh Field capacity issues:
A high-speed rail station in San Diego with connections to the rest of the state, at least the major urban areas, will absorb a lot of current and future demand for in-state flights. This will be true regardless sof the final terminal station; downtown or Lindbergh Field. The ability high-speed rail to attract users away from flights is not unusual; it has been the case around the world where high-speed rail has been implemented.
The ability of high-speed rail to grab that market share is because it is time competitive with planes, it’s on the ground, it’s easier to access and use, and it’s cheaper. What is the portion of in-state flights coming in/out of Lindbergh? I suspect in the 30% to 50% range? High-speed rail has the potential to absorb much of that demand and free-up runway and terminal capacity and postpone the need to expand due to capacity constraints.
I am not suggesting high-speed rail replace or mitigate the need to expand or replace Lindbergh Field entirely; only that some future demand is mitigated and eventual capacity may be reached at a later date.
With respect to Lindbergh roadway circulation/traffic issues:
Noteworthy is that high-speed rail users travelling out of the region will not need to travel to Downtown or a Lindbergh Station b/c users can access the HSR network elsewhere, such as at Temecula/Murrieta, Escondido or University City. In fact, for a large part of county residents making such trips, a station downtown or at Lindbergh will be out of the way relative to other station locations. The opportunity of having other access points to the high-speed rail system will relieve some of the local roadway traffic congestion issues around Lindbergh Field. This will be true if a high-speed rail station were at Lindbergh Field or at Downtown Santa Fe Depot.
With respect to a high-speed rail station at Lindbergh Field:
As we know, Sanders/Peace included a station in the proposed super transit hub at Lindbergh Field. The intent would be to support their transit hub plan and perhaps generate development opportunities. Unfortunately, a Lindbergh Field station would preclude a downtown station. We would not have both.
However, there is very little synergy between high-speed rail and airplanes... relative to San Diego. As others have said, San Diego is a destination and not a hub. I believe that is true. I also believe that means there will be near zero people transferring between long distance HSR trains and airplanes. Why would people do that? They took a wrong turn somewhere?
Some local people accessing Lindbergh Field may do so via HSR if a station were there... after getting on trains in Temecula/Murrieta, Escondido or University City; however, should such rider demand to the airport trump other rider demand to downtown San Diego?
A station at Downtown Santa Fe Depot:
Commuters from Temecula/Murrieta, Escondido or University City will not be able to access downtown if there were no station downtown... and an alternative Lindbergh station would mean transferring to the Trolley to complete a trip. Unfortunately, transferring kills patronage. I suspect with downtown's planned resident population increasing from 30,000 to 90,000 and employment population increasing from 80,000 to 160,000 (with planned proportion of downtown transit trips being 25% of total) would have overwhelming greater HSR commuter demand than local users needing to access Lindbergh Field airplanes!
Of course, there are other benefits of a downtown station relative to one at Lindbergh Field; however, they are marginal. One is for tourists… isn’t it better to connect them with their final destination in downtown with a plethora of transit options rather them having the get into a rental car and having them aimlessly drive around town? And it’s nice the Trolley and a couple bus lines serve the Lindbergh transit hub; however, the level of service iwould be nominal relative to downtown.
Current Need:
In my opinion, planning efforts for high-speed rail need a jump start; a new regional focus should include implications of the location of a downtown station. At the least, if a station at Lindbergh is really desired, b/c of the implications, it's my opinion that the region should be sought to provide input. Such a decision should not be left for elected officials or a Blue Ribbon Committee. If any one group should play a role... it should be technocrats... people trained and informed on the issues. I would preclude SANDAG involvement because they are a highway organization.