The US Census Bureau thread

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Can you imagine Dallas with 17 million? The sprawl would be epic. There would probably be a million or so "Dallas" residents in Oklahoma. Dallas would technically be bigger than Paris or London.

I'm inclined to think "nah, can't happen; no way people are paying for McMansions 60 miles from anything" but Americans just love their sprawl.

Those regional planning offices are so optimistic to the point of being useless.

To reach 17 million, Dallas would have to grow faster than it did between 1990-2020, which was an exceptional period.

Looking at absolute numbers, it’s an even more unreal: Dallas added 3.6 million and to meet this projection they would have to add almost 10 million, in a time the US is growing much less.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by DCReid

The Bisnow website article, https://www.bisnow.com/dallas-ft-wor...h-texas-111923

makes the following claim:

"The 13-county region that makes up North Texas is home to 7.5 million people. According to the North Texas Commission, one person moves to the region every 3.3 minutes. By 2050, the number of people living in North Texas is expected to more than double to 16.8 million."

How the heck did they get this estimate, which seems wildly optimistic, if not unrealistic? I've been looking for any website that have 2021 Metro estimates and projections but have not found any. I also know that projections based on past history almost never pan out. For example, wiki is showing DFW metro grew in the 30% range from 1980 to 2000 but has grown in the 20% range since then.

Yeah, they must be hoping that their population growth will work like compound interest lol. Adding 1 person/3.3 mins would be a +1.5 million increase every decade. DFW has never added that many people in a decade, but has consistently grown by about 1.2-1.3 million per decade. But 1.3 million per decade won't get them anywhere close to 17 million by 2050.

[MAC123]

Originally Posted by DCReid

The Bisnow website article, https://www.bisnow.com/dallas-ft-wor...h-texas-111923

makes the following claim:

"The 13-county region that makes up North Texas is home to 7.5 million people. According to the North Texas Commission, one person moves to the region every 3.3 minutes. By 2050, the number of people living in North Texas is expected to more than double to 16.8 million."

How the heck did they get this estimate, which seems wildly optimistic, if not unrealistic? I've been looking for any website that have 2021 Metro estimates and projections but have not found any. I also know that projections based on past history almost never pan out. For example, wiki is showing DFW metro grew in the 30% range from 1980 to 2000 but has grown in the 20% range since then.

I don't know why the people who do growth estimates never even think about the possibility of slowdown. It's always up, up, up like we're in the stock market before 1929. That's no way North Texas gets to 16.8 million. And that's not to mention the population stagnation of the US. The entirety of the US is growing the slowest it has in its entire history.

[mhays]

They're statisticians, not urban theorists.

But sometimes today's growth makes tomorrow's growth harder. And big factors like climate change will likely be headwinds (heh) to places like Dallas.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by MAC123

I don't know why the people who do growth estimates never even think about the possibility of slowdown. It's always up, up, up like we're in the stock market before 1929. That's no way North Texas gets to 16.8 million. And that's not to mention the population stagnation of the US. The entirety of the US is growing the slowest it has in its entire history.

Tu put things in perspective, the entire US grew by 83 million people between 1990-2020. Dallas MSA, by 3.6 million.

The US is set to grow by 25 million or so between 2020-2050 while Dallas is projected to grow by almost 10 million (40% of the entire growth)... Seems legit...

[mhays]

Why would we only grow that much? Immigration alone will likely exceed that figure.

[MAC123]

Originally Posted by mhays

Why would we only grow that much? Immigration alone will likely exceed that figure.

25 million immigrants in 30 years? You sure about that? Idk

[mhays]

The US typically does a million a year, aside from Covid.

Persons Obtaining Lawful Permanent Resident Status:
2019 1,031,765
2018 1,096,611
2017 1,127,167
2016 1,183,505
2015 1,051,031
2014 1,016,518
2013 990,553
2012 1,031,631
2011 1,062,040
2010 1,042,625
2009 1,130,818
2008 1,107,126
2007 1,052,415
2006 1,266,129

https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-stat.../yearbook/2019

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by mhays

Why would we only grow that much? Immigration alone will likely exceed that figure.

Natural growth will most likely be negative from the late 2020’s onwards. So actually it’s way more than 25 million immigrants to make the 25 million.

[mhays]

I'm not sure I buy that. Death rates will decrease with Covid. Birth rates might recover partially as the Trump/Covid era goes away, even while many economic factors remain.

[MAC123]

Originally Posted by mhays

The US typically does a million a year, aside from Covid.

Persons Obtaining Lawful Permanent Resident Status:
2019 1,031,765
2018 1,096,611
2017 1,127,167
2016 1,183,505
2015 1,051,031
2014 1,016,518
2013 990,553
2012 1,031,631
2011 1,062,040
2010 1,042,625
2009 1,130,818
2008 1,107,126
2007 1,052,415
2006 1,266,129

https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-stat.../yearbook/2019

Hmm, interesting. Well I guess we could then. And that doesn't account for "unofficial" immigration either, which I don't really have a problem with.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by mhays

I'm not sure I buy that. Death rates will decrease with Covid. Birth rates might recover partially as the Trump/Covid era goes away, even while many economic factors remain.

Deaths trending high as expected and by 2030 baby boomers will start to die off. On the other hand, the number of births is collapsing, which is a worldwide trend since the mid-2010’s. Births can go up, but there is no indication in that direction.

Births might fall even further, to 3.3 million by 2030 as many millennials will be leaving the childbearing age whereas deaths will keep climbing from the 2.8 million in 2019 to 3.5 million by 2030 with baby boomers dying off. From there, it will be two more decades with negative growth as more and more people will die every year and less people will be born as there will be less people on child bearing age.

The Census Bureau hasn’t released the new projections. The last one was that from 2017-2060. I guess they’ll soon revisit this, as they were estimating a much higher birth rate. If I need to bet, I’d go with the 25 million increase.

[SAN Man]

I hope the US stabilizes at 400 million people. If we don't stabilize, what are we aiming for? A China/India situation in the Eastern third of the country?

[MAC123]

Originally Posted by SAN Man

I hope the US stabilizes at 400 million people. If we don't stabilize, what are we aiming for? A China/India situation in the Eastern third of the country?

It's unlikely we reach China or India's population within the next 2 centuries at the rate we're going (then again at the rate we're going we might not even match our own current population).

[SAN Man]

Originally Posted by MAC123

It's unlikely we reach China or India's population within the next 2 centuries at the rate we're going (then again at the rate we're going we might not even match our own current population).

Unlikely, that's why I was saying I hope we stabilize at 400 million.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by SAN Man

I hope the US stabilizes at 400 million people. If we don't stabilize, what are we aiming for? A China/India situation in the Eastern third of the country?

The most recent projections, taking into account the newest trends, show the US population won't reach 400 million and will decline much sooner.

Population stability is also very difficult to obtain, unless in a pre-industrial scenario will lots of births and deaths. In our world, population increases and when urbanization and industrialization kick in, women have less children and after two or three generations, population starts to fall.

[SAN Man]

I'm ok with us never reaching 400 million. Why and what's the point?

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by SAN Man

I'm ok with us never reaching 400 million. Why and what's the point?

There's no point. The US simply won't reach those numbers because late demographic trends (collapse of fertility rates, stagnation of life expectancy, hostility towards immigration) completely changed the population path.

I guess countries, including the US, should accept this fate and focus on adapt their socioeconomic systems to this new reality. It won't be easy.

[SAN Man]

Originally Posted by Yuri

There's no point. The US simply won't reach those numbers because late demographic trends (collapse of fertility rates, stagnation of life expectancy, hostility towards immigration) completely changed the population path.

I guess countries, including the US, should accept this fate and focus on adapt their socioeconomic systems to this new reality. It won't be easy.

I wouldn't say never though, as Russia is about to invade Ukraine there could be a surge in Eastern European refugees here. In our future there will be other events that prompt a surge of people seeking refuge to safer areas.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by SAN Man

I wouldn't say never though, as Russia is about to invade Ukraine there could be a surge in Eastern European refugees here. In our future there will be other events that prompt a surge of people seeking refuge to safer areas.

But those are specific events and they don't change demographics in the long run. Germany welcomed almost 1 million refugees from Syria in 2015 and then the flow eventually exhausted.

Ukraine is a basketcase for three decades now and they are leaving the country for Russia itself or the rest of Europe for a long time now. It's not like anything new nor the US will allow millions of people to fly there. Even tourism visas are not granted easily for citizens of such countries.