Winnipeg or Québec - 1 Million

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by vanatox

The 2016-2021 period is a bit of an outlier to predict anything regarding CMAs due to the pandemic. Some areas of the country experienced higher growth due to people leaving the big cities and relocating there. This movement of people is now reduced significantly. You see now a small trend of people moving back to the bigger city since they need to spend more days in the office. I see that in Ottawa. Other CMAs grew less. In Quebec for example growth from end of 2020 up to early 2022 was way lower then usual and other parts of Canada.

I actually think 2021 is kind of a good year--the last normal period before the pandemic weirded everything.

The data collection for the last census was done in 2021, and only the 12-month period preceding that would have been affected by COVID. And it turns out people were actually moving around less during that time, rather than more. With the exception of Winnipeg, for whatever reason, all the cities on the list below had slower growth in 2021 than in 2020, so the pandemic-era migration to smaller communities hadn't really kicked in.

It's possible that this is simply due to less international migration, and more moving was happening within Canada, but I don't think so. For example, Ontario-Nova Scotia migration was 9,903 from July 2020 to July 2021 which was only slightly above the previous year. The 2021-2022 number was almost 16,000. So that seems to show that the moving around really picked up after the data collection for the census. It'll be the 2021-2026 period where more of the pandemic influence is seen.

To get a one-year snapshot of the post-pandemic trends, the 2021-22 population estimates show all of those cities growing at much more elevated rates, though their rankings relative to one another moved around a little:

K-C-W +22,681
Halifax +20,713
London +16,844
Winnipeg +12,930
Quebec City +12,161
Hamilton +10,443

[trueviking]

I love seeing strong growth in Halifax. It would be great to have a true big city in the Maritimes. I’m definitely cheering for them.

[Razor]

when asked who do you prefer The Beatles or the Stones, I say "neither..It's Led Zeppelin"

So I say "neither.. it will be the dark horse Hamilton" (:

Carry on

[ssiguy]

Quebec stands out in Canada as being a very slow growth city. It's growing by about 0.7% a year which is OK but when compared to how the rest of the country is growing {including Montreal}, it's growth rate is very slow. Winnipeg will reach a million before Quebec City by a long shot but so will Hamilton and even possibly KWC.

[Architype]

Neither of these cities has a very healthy population pyramid, Winnipeg looks slightly better.


https://tomlin-quebeccity.weebly.com...n-pyramid.html


https://winnipegmanitobajuliet.weebl...ographics.html

[Zeej]

If Ontario continues adding 500,000 people/year - even for only a few more years, I predict KWC will hit 1M before both Winnipeg and Quebec City.

[vanatox]

I think it's worth reposting info that has been provided recently:

2021 CMA pop
Winnipeg 834,678
Quebec City 839,311


one-year snapshot of the post-pandemic trends (2021-22 population estimates)
K-C-W +22,681
Halifax +20,713
London +16,844
Winnipeg +12,930
Quebec City +12,161
Hamilton +10,443

Winnipeg is likely to be the first one to reach 1 million. Quebec City will be very close. The gap in population is too big for KCW, London or Halifax. People have been saying for many years that Hamilton will start growing more than Winnipeg and Quebec City but this is not happening even though Ontario is growing like crazy.

[Zeej]

Originally Posted by vanatox

I think it's worth reposting info that has been provided recently:

2021 CMA pop
Winnipeg 834,678
Quebec City 839,311


one-year snapshot of the post-pandemic trends (2021-22 population estimates)
K-C-W +22,681
Halifax +20,713
London +16,844
Winnipeg +12,930
Quebec City +12,161
Hamilton +10,443

Winnipeg is likely to be the first one to reach 1 million. Quebec City will be very close. The gap in population is too big for KCW, London or Halifax. People have been saying for many years that Hamilton will start growing more than Winnipeg and Quebec City but this is not happening even though Ontario is growing like crazy.

If we do a quick and dirty extrapolation of the 2021-22 growth (yes, I am very well aware that this is imperfect), it would take Quebec City roughly 13.5 years to hit 1M, 14 for Winnipeg based on 2021 estimates. KWC was at 575K in 2021. In those same 13.5-14 years at 22.5k/year growth --- and I think that running this exercise with growth rate instead would also support my argument --- KWC reaches 900k, considerably narrowing the gap. It will have joined the size category of both QC and Winnipeg. Adjusting this for even more recent growth trends, particularly as they relate to immigration policy, I think it is very likely that KWC will reach 1M before Quebec City and somewhat likely that it will reach 1M before Winnipeg. If it should fall short of hitting the milestone first, it will still likely leave both in the dust in the decades to follow.

[vanatox]

Originally Posted by Zeej

If we do a quick and dirty extrapolation of the 2021-22 growth (yes, I am very well aware that this is imperfect), it would take Quebec City roughly 13.5 years to hit 1M, 14 for Winnipeg based on 2021 estimates. KWC was at 575K in 2021. In those same 13.5-14 years at 22.5k/year growth --- and I think that running this exercise with growth rate instead would also support my argument --- KWC reaches 900k, considerably narrowing the gap. It will have joined the size category of both QC and Winnipeg. Adjusting this for even more recent growth trends, particularly as they relate to immigration policy, I think it is very likely that KWC will reach 1M before Quebec City and somewhat likely that it will reach 1M before Winnipeg. If it should fall short of hitting the milestone first, it will still likely leave both in the dust in the decades to follow.

Regarding immigration policy:
-14 years is a long period
-Ontario was already growing at record numbers in 2022
- Current levels are not sustainable in the long term if things remain the same.
-Quebec is already increasing its immigration target.
-So many things can happen...

However, I agree it is likely that KWC will considerably narrow the gap with both Winnipeg and Quebec City in the coming years.

[Djeffery]

There was a comment upthread about an area near Halifax now counting towards the Halifax CMA.

What factors determine what a CMA includes and what of the surrounding areas of KWC that aren't part of the CMA now could potentially also become part of that CMA in the next decade or so? Woodstock (almost 50k now) is only 16 miles from Kitchener at the shortest distance between the 2 city limits and there is constant construction towards each other. And there are a lot of people in between.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Djeffery

There was a comment upthread about an area near Halifax now counting towards the Halifax CMA.

What factors determine what a CMA includes and what of the surrounding areas of KWC that aren't part of the CMA now could potentially also become part of that CMA in the next decade or so? Woodstock (almost 50k now) is only 16 miles from Kitchener at the shortest distance between the 2 city limits and there is constant construction towards each other. And there are a lot of people in between.

Statistics Canada article on the 2021 boundary changes: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/...019002-eng.htm

There are different rules but the main ones are based on > 50% of commuters going to the CMA and spatial contiguity. The new area was added to the Halifax CMA because most commuters there commute to the Halifax CMA.

This is somewhat different from a lot of discussion you see with people saying one metro areas is too big or too small, etc. They are determined by the commuting flows.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Zeej

If we do a quick and dirty extrapolation of the 2021-22 growth (yes, I am very well aware that this is imperfect), it would take Quebec City roughly 13.5 years to hit 1M, 14 for Winnipeg based on 2021 estimates. KWC was at 575K in 2021. In those same 13.5-14 years at 22.5k/year growth --- and I think that running this exercise with growth rate instead would also support my argument --- KWC reaches 900k, considerably narrowing the gap. It will have joined the size category of both QC and Winnipeg. Adjusting this for even more recent growth trends, particularly as they relate to immigration policy, I think it is very likely that KWC will reach 1M before Quebec City and somewhat likely that it will reach 1M before Winnipeg. If it should fall short of hitting the milestone first, it will still likely leave both in the dust in the decades to follow.

Did you linearly extrapolate or use a rate of growth? People are not very good at judging the long-term implications of a compounding high growth rate. At the 2021-2022 growth rate, Moncton would have a million people around 2057 while Quebec City would not yet hit 1.4M.

It's also common to see claims that are too conservative around how population growth might shift up or down. That may be true with natural increase (though not always) but it doesn't have to hold at all for migration and that makes up the bulk of growth in Canada. The government could let in 2 million immigrants in 2030 or 0.

[Centerprovince]

People keep mentioning Ontario’s and Nova Scotia’s growth. But almost every province’s population has boomed in the last year due the the floodgates being opened to immigrants. Nova Scotia has grown by 40,000 in the last year, but Manitoba has grown by 42,000 during that same period. It’s pretty safe to say that at least 30,000 of those new residents moved to Winnipeg, that would put Winnipeg at over 900,000 as of July 1st 2023. The 2021-22 trend means nothing, considering the recent explosion in immigration in the last year, the 2022-23 numbers will be interesting.

[someone123]

I don't think it means nothing. The federal government seems to want to keep immigration high. It could change but a lot of policies are sticky.

The absolute number is about the same between NS/MB but the growth rate is higher in NS and the growth rate is much higher in Halifax than Winnipeg. If Halifax and Winnipeg both add the same population each year, they will eventually approach the same population. If the rates remain consistent (which is how it often goes; as a city grows its draw increases), the place with the lower rate will fall behind eventually.

Urbanism-wise the growth in Halifax is also pretty interesting as a lot of it (> 50% by value?) is happening through urban infill.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by someone123

I don't think it means nothing. The federal government seems to want to keep immigration high. It could change but a lot of policies are sticky.

The absolute number is about the same between NS/MB but the growth rate is higher in NS and the growth rate is much higher in Halifax than Winnipeg. If Halifax and Winnipeg both add the same population each year, they will eventually approach the same population. If the rates remain consistent (which is how it often goes; as a city grows its draw increases), the place with the lower rate will fall behind eventually.

The Okotoks growth theory.

[Centerprovince]

Again, 2022-23 will look a whole lot different. Winnipeg/Manitoba relies much more on international immigration, compared to Halifax/Nova Scotia, which rely on interprovincial immigration. The recent immigration influx will have a much greater impact on Winnipeg/Manitoba. Just look at the recent population increase that Manitoba has seen compared to the previous year.

[phone]

By 2050, Halifax will be on par with Calgary, while Winnipeg will have shrunk. It is a quite reasonable and plain-headed conclusion. There is nothing that could possibly interfere with the current trends as I interpret them.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Centerprovince

Again, 2022-23 will look a whole lot different. Winnipeg/Manitoba relies much more on international immigration, compared to Halifax/Nova Scotia, which rely on interprovincial immigration. The recent immigration influx will have a much greater impact on Winnipeg/Manitoba. Just look at the recent population increase that Manitoba has seen compared to the previous year.

Maybe, but the growth rate estimated for NS hasn't dropped and immigration to NS has gone way up.

I don't really have opinions on Winnipeg and I'm not arguing that any specific trend will continue in the future. Just pointing out that a lot of the explanations people put forward for what is going on demographically in NS are not consistent with the facts.

[Zeej]

Originally Posted by someone123

Did you linearly extrapolate or use a rate of growth? People are not very good at judging the long-term implications of a compounding high growth rate. At the 2021-2022 growth rate, Moncton would have a million people around 2057 while Quebec City would not yet hit 1.4M.

It's also common to see claims that are too conservative around how population growth might shift up or down. That may be true with natural increase (though not always) but it doesn't have to hold at all for migration and that makes up the bulk of growth in Canada. The government could let in 2 million immigrants in 2030 or 0.

I did a very very basic linear extrapolation. I'm aware that it's sketchy. I think the growth rates in Canada right now are highly unstable and could shift suddenly up or down in a big way, via a myriad of factors, so I would not make a projection based on compounding current growth rates. The government could certainly let in 2 million immigrants in 2030, could still even be largely via non-permanent residents. But hey, they could let in 100,000 instead arguing that the pendulum has swung too far. Who is to say?

[someone123]

The modus ponens of SSP:

1. I made claim X about Y,
2. You refuted X, therefore
3. You are guilty of horrible Y boosterism that I must counter