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  #101  
Old Posted Sep 28, 2021, 9:08 PM
bossabreezes bossabreezes is offline
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Originally Posted by jd3189 View Post
I have accepted the fact that things will just have to get worse. How worse? Shit, I'm waiting for the tent cities to take over every major Western city and for van/car life to be a common thing everywhere. You think you can avoid Skid Row without being a millionaire in a gated community or a penthouse in a rich neighborhood? Get ready to see the rise of the American favela, the return of the Hoovervilles.
Tent cities have already taken up big areas of West Coast Cities though. And it doesn’t seem to be much of a problem for politicians, they are not held accountable. Probably because the general population does not care. They vote “progressive” because it benefits their own ego. The state governments of Washington, Oregon, and California have failed the people who need the most help, the mentally ill and substance dependent.

It will continue to get worse for sure, as we’ve been desensitized to seeing worse than third world living conditions all over LA, and many West Coast metrô regions. It’s not only in the cities anymore.

This housing bill will do absolutely nothing to solve the homeless issue. At best, it might slightly increase affordability but for those living in tents on the street- they will again be cast out by our politicians who dont give a shit about anything other than their own narcissism.
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  #102  
Old Posted Sep 28, 2021, 9:13 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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Originally Posted by mhays View Post
Yes, to a point. But generally that would be the underutilized sites and crappier houses.

Imagine two $700,000 townhouses on a new $100,000 development site.

Now imagine two $700,000 townhouses on a $700,000 property. The development cost is likely to be far higher than the $700,000 difference. Money will prefer the earlier option.

If the existing house needs major work and sells for $500,000, plus you can actually fit three $700,000 townhouses, then it might work very well.
I dunno... I think we'll see a lot of it unless cities start doing the equivalent of NYC's landmark commission. Which is possible. But market wise, the prices in coastal California are so through the roof that it would be easy to see how this turns into a developer free for all. In places like Cupertino, they can probably tear down something like this and sell two duplex units on the lot for the same price as that single house.
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  #103  
Old Posted Sep 28, 2021, 9:18 PM
jd3189 jd3189 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bossabreezes View Post
Tent cities have already taken up big areas of West Coast Cities though. And it doesn’t seem to be much of a problem for politicians, they are not held accountable. Probably because the general population does not care. They vote “progressive” because it benefits their own ego. The state governments of Washington, Oregon, and California have failed the people who need the most help, the mentally ill and substance dependent.

It will continue to get worse for sure, as we’ve been desensitized to seeing worse than third world living conditions all over LA, and many West Coast metrô regions. It’s not only in the cities anymore.

This housing bill will do absolutely nothing to solve the homeless issue. At best, it might slightly increase affordability but for those living in tents on the street- they will again be cast out by our politicians who dont give a shit about anything other than their own narcissism.

I know that tent cities already exist in the West Coast. I’m talking about their expansion though. The tent cities at Skid Row, Venice Beach, and other parts of LA city and county will soon be in Beverly Hills, Century City, all over Downtown near Staple Center, and quite honestly anywhere the cops will ignore. Soon, most people will have to not only see homeless folks, but interact with them on a daily basis.

I’m down for it, I guess. I don’t mind helping the homeless out and getting to know them. But it will sure be something that most Americans thought would never happen here. It will be just very ironic, considering that people come to this country for a better life, not to return to what they escaped from.
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  #104  
Old Posted Sep 28, 2021, 9:22 PM
bossabreezes bossabreezes is offline
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Already a reality ^^.

There is a large homeless encampment in Brentwood, one of the wealthiest zipcodes in the country. But I hear you and agree, it’ll get worse cause nobody (politicians) actually care about the issue.
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  #105  
Old Posted Sep 28, 2021, 9:54 PM
Obadno Obadno is offline
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Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
I don't think people are doing that, but just welcoming this as the first step in the right direction, specially in a state so NIMBY as California.

As we say in Portuguese something like "don't let the perfect to be the enemy of the good". California won't change easily, but if this will help them to add more housing units, why not?




"Only the US matter, you're hurt by that". This kind of childish nonsense.
Only the US matters, this is a US website (I think...who cares) Im telling you to accept this reality or continue to suffer
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  #106  
Old Posted Sep 28, 2021, 10:40 PM
mhays mhays is offline
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
I dunno... I think we'll see a lot of it unless cities start doing the equivalent of NYC's landmark commission. Which is possible. But market wise, the prices in coastal California are so through the roof that it would be easy to see how this turns into a developer free for all. In places like Cupertino, they can probably tear down something like this and sell two duplex units on the lot for the same price as that single house.
The economics still have to work. You're talking about buying building sites at "through the roof" prices in addition to selling at those prices. And construction is really expensive. Maybe if the existing house is worth a fair amount less than its neighbors...
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  #107  
Old Posted Sep 28, 2021, 10:52 PM
badrunner badrunner is offline
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That's actually a separate issue and another area that needs major reform. Institutional investors shouldn't be able to use their access to unlimited capital to snap up thousands of houses and distort the market for individual buyers.
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  #108  
Old Posted Sep 28, 2021, 10:56 PM
eschaton eschaton is offline
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Originally Posted by mhays View Post
The economics still have to work. You're talking about buying building sites at "through the roof" prices in addition to selling at those prices. And construction is really expensive. Maybe if the existing house is worth a fair amount less than its neighbors...
If a 3 bedroom 1 bath 1950s ranch goes for 1.5 million in the Bay Area, the vast majority of that price relates to land value, not house quality.
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  #109  
Old Posted Sep 28, 2021, 11:04 PM
mhays mhays is offline
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I don't know whether you're arguing against my points or in favor.

In any case, the math in that scenario would typically require far more than $3 million in completed sale value (2x current) to make it work.
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  #110  
Old Posted Sep 28, 2021, 11:06 PM
badrunner badrunner is offline
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Originally Posted by jd3189 View Post
The tent cities at Skid Row, Venice Beach, and other parts of LA city and county will soon be in Beverly Hills, Century City, all over Downtown near Staple Center, and quite honestly anywhere the cops will ignore.
It's actually moving in the opposite direction. For now. The Venice Beach and Echo Park encampments have been cleared out, and by law everyone has to be offered shelter when they are removed. These places didn't have tent cities before last year, so it's mostly pandemic related, and things are slowly returning to a more "normal" level of homelessness. The Venice Beach cleanup was big news and there was a bit of a controversy between the county and the city. It was the sheriff who eventually stepped in and started the process. But things are mostly back to normal there with the crowds starting to return.

Venice Beach Oct 2020 vs Sep 2021:

Video Link


Video Link


Echo Park May 2021:

Video Link
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  #111  
Old Posted Sep 28, 2021, 11:08 PM
mhays mhays is offline
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My area has been moving back toward normal also, for reasons already discussed. Still high but moving in the right direction.
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  #112  
Old Posted Sep 30, 2021, 4:42 PM
sopas ej's Avatar
sopas ej sopas ej is offline
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From CBS2LA:

Sitting On Money: Angelenos Cash In On Booming Real Estate Market With ADUs

LOS ANGELES (CBSLA) – When the pandemic hit, many people suddenly found themselves with extra time on their hands and got to work with home improvements, so much so that it drove up the cost of lumber. This period then prompted one of the hottest trends: turning homes into income property.

“It’s been more financially helpful than we even thought it would be,” landlord Mike Horowitz tells CBS2 News This Morning’s Suzanne Marques.

A charming cottage studio in the backyard of the Horowitz home in Atwater Village has become a little slice of paradise. Until a few years ago, it was a garage.

“The house was built in the 1920s, and it was a little garage that we weren’t using, mostly because the driveway was so narrow,” Horowitz said.

So Horowitz converted the garage into what is termed an Accessory Dwelling Unit (ADU). It’s a permitted home that can be rented out or used to house family members. Horowitz rents it out and now makes thousands of dollars a month.

“In a good month, it’s better than our mortgage payment, which is unbelievable,” Horowitz sad.

To help address the state’s housing shortage, California earlier this month passed Senate Bill 9, which allows homeowners to build multiple units on their lots. It’s so new, there are no set guidelines, but demand is expected to rise. The hope is that cities can keep up with demand and help the permit process, which often makes projects take much longer

Chen Yaacov specializes in building ADUs with his Reseda-based company Pearl Remodeling. The most common ADU is converting a garage, normally about 400-square-feet for a studio or one bedroom.

“The initial stage is obviously finding out what you can or cannot do because there’s certain restrictions that the city might apply for one property over another,” Yaacov said.

When the pandemic hit, business was quiet for a couple months, then Yaacov’s phone started ringing off the hook.

“People just making their domain a lot more comfortable for them, realizing that they might be staying home more than what they used to,” Yaacov said. “People are definitely thinking about how to get more money, and how to utilize things better. If somebody had an office that they were renting, and now they figured, ‘You know, I can have my own office.’”

Yaacov says there are two main things to consider if you plan to rent your space. The first is if you are comfortable with guests staying on your property. The second is the cost. ADUs can cost anywhere from $50,000 to $100,000. He says equity has made affording it much easier.

“Even if you don’t have the money,” Yaacov said. “If you are okay, and you’re considering getting some extra money and raising the value of your house, and you don’t worry about people in your property, then it’s the best investment that you could do because you’ll be making money the day we finish construction and you start renting it.”

Even if you don’t rent out your space, raising your square footage is one of the fastest ways to make your home worth more.

“Our initial calculation was that, if nothing else, it would help the property value,” Horowitz said. “So while you’re building anything, you always are wondering if it was a good idea while, you know, construction is happening and its a little bit of a disruption. But we’ve found it amazingly worthwhile.”

Link: https://cbsloc.al/3iklwyx

Video Link
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  #113  
Old Posted Oct 2, 2021, 5:47 PM
RST500 RST500 is offline
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Article on what areas would be impacted by SB9.

New California law meant to ease housing crisis likely won’t help much in Sacramento

https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/article254563882.html
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  #114  
Old Posted Nov 22, 2021, 4:57 PM
RST500 RST500 is offline
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"Governor Gavin Newsom recently signed into law, two new zoning reform bills, sb9 and sb10, which will dramatically reshape housing policy in California by limiting the power of local jurisdictions over zoning. Sb9 allows for homeowners, with certain restrictions, to subdivide their properties into duplexes and fourplexes, thus practically eliminating single family zoning statewide. The more modest Sb10 makes it easier for cities to zone for up to 10 units around transit. These zoning reform measures will increase California’s supply of housing but the question is to what degree they will result in a dramatic political, economic, social, and demographic paradigm shift?"

https://robertstark.substack.com/p/a...ism-compatible
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  #115  
Old Posted Nov 22, 2021, 6:58 PM
SFBruin SFBruin is offline
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Originally Posted by Obadno View Post
this is a US website (I think...who cares) Im telling you to accept this reality or continue to suffer
Ironically, as far as I have been able to tell from this confusing wikipedia article, this is a Canadian website.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SkyscraperPage
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  #116  
Old Posted Jan 6, 2022, 8:54 PM
kittyhawk28 kittyhawk28 is offline
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Posting here due to relevance regarding recent state laws and reforms mandating housing construction targets for localities:


https://planning.lacity.org/odocumen..._High_Res..pdf

Los Angeles' 2021-29 Housing Element upzones for 1.4 million additional new housing units in order to meet it's RHNA target of constructing nearly 500,000 new homes over the next decade

LA's existing zoning, on paper, could easily accommodate its state-imposed 486,000-unit housing production goals. However, IRL, not every parcel will be redeveloped to the maximum density allowed for in zoning, and not every redeveloped parcel will be built to the maximum possible density allowed by zoning. This is how, for the past few decades, despite on paper showing that current zoning rules allow for enough housing production to accommodate the state's RHNA goals, most California cities in fact end up constructing far less new homes and falling far short of their goals. Recent legislation has changed this somewhat, with laws like AB 1397 requiring cities to incorporate “likelihood of development” into their site capacity calculations in producing their zoning plans for the 6th 8-year RHNA cycle, in order to account for the fact that not every suitably zoned parcel will be redeveloped during the next 8 years, and not every property owner will necessarily want to redevelop their property.

LA partnered with the Terner Center to create a statistical model that would use recent residential development trends observed in the data as the basis for estimating future residential development, using data on permitting between 2015 and 2019 (5 years) to model the likelihood of new units being permitted on each Housing Element site, as well as the share of zoned capacity that would be developed over the next 5 years. The model accounted for parcels’ zoned capacity at the time with and without bonuses, market conditions and other factors.

What was found was that, even under current zoning rules and housing development programs, when accounting for factors like "development potential on vacant and underutilized sites, planned and approved development projects, and non-site-specific development potential that provide additional alternative means of meeting the RHNA", there would only be a total development potential of 230,947 units, far short of the RHNA of 486,000 units. As such, in order to bridge this deficit, the city identified 243,254 sites for their realistic redevelopment potential through the model developed with the Terner Center that should be rezoned for a up to 1,432,059 additional new housing units. The breakdown of this rezoning programme are listed below:

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Rezoning Strategy: |Parcel Count: |Total Units: |

Community and Neighborhood Planning (CPU): |33,749 parcels|627,638 units|

Residential Opportunity Corridors (OPP RC): |3,477 parcels|74,903 units|

Opportunity Avenues (OPP RC2): |5,316 parcels|23,643 units|


Commercial Opportunity Corridors (OPP C): |667|5,248|

Transit Opportunity Corridor Areas (TOPP C): |272|1,022|

TOC Expansion in Higher Opportunity Areas (TOC EXP): |11,792 parcels|150,402 units|

50% Density Bonus (DB50): |18,908 parcels|401,540 units|

Parking Zones (P): |1,032|4,736|

Adaptive Reuse (ARO): |10,153|43,128|

Micro Unit Regional Center (MURC): |1,250|21,639|

Accessory Dwelling Units (ADU): |48,797|4,141|

R2/RD Zone Update (R2RD): |64,570|18,079|

Affordable Housing Overlay (AHO): |34,034 parcels|45,516 units|

Public Facility Zone (PF): |6,407|7,116|

Faith-Based Owned Properties (FBO): |2,865|3,552|

Total New Zoning Capacity: |243,245 parcels|1,432,059 units|

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The bolded rezoning strategies are explained below:

Community and Neighborhood Planning (CPU):

Basically communities must produce individual rezoning plans to accommodate the maximum additional housing capacities in their community plans. A total of 16 Community Plans (four West Los Angeles plans, three Southeast Valley plans, three Southwest Valley plans, two Downtown plans, the Boyle Heights plan, the Hollywood plan, the Harbor-Gateway plan and the Wilmington plan); as well as three neighborhood Plans (the Orange Line Transit Neighborhood Plan (TNP), the Cornfields Arroyo Seco Specific Plan (CASP) and the Slauson TNP) will be in the process of being updated during the three-year rezoning period.

Residential Opportunity Corridors (OPP RC & OPPRC2):

Residential (R) zoned lots in Higher Opportunity Areas along certain corridors can be rezoned to allow for multi-family development, with an affordable housing requirement. The strategy assumes rezoning will occur on qualified sites fronting all major Boulevards, as well as certain Avenues located on a High Quality Transit Corridor (with 15-minute service all day, including Metro NextGen Lines).

Boulevards and Avenue designations are indicated in the City’s 2035 Mobility Plan. All Boulevards and Avenues on a High Quality Transit Corridor would qualify for a higher tier of incentives to allow multi-family buildings with minimum densities and mid-rise floor area ratios (3.0:1). Avenues without high quality transit would qualify for a lower scale standard, permitting at least four units per lot with a density bonus to allow six units building to certain contextual low and mid-rise forms (designated as OPP RC2).

TOC Expansion in Higher Opportunity Areas (TOC EXP):

Most Higher Opportunity areas are currently unable to take advantage of the Transit Oriented Community (TOC) Affordable Housing Incentive Program due to density limitations and the five-unit base density threshold needed to qualify for the program. As part of the Rezoning Program, residentially zoned sites including Residential (R) and Commercial (C) zones may be permitted at higher minimum intensities (mid-rise FAR levels up to 2.5) with higher affordability requirements.

50% Density Bonus (DB50):

The Rezoning Program includes a potential update of the City’s Density Bonus ordinance to allow for up to 50% density increases citywide in exchange for the maximum amount of affordable housing economically feasible.

Affordable Housing Overlay (AHO):

Projects that commit to significantly deeper levels of affordable housing should qualify for the largest development incentives. The Rezoning Program anticipates creating development incentives for projects that include at least 50% affordable housing in a wider array of areas of the city. While the state density bonus law already provides significant incentives for 100% affordable housing on sites that qualify under AB 1763, including density, additional height, and parking reductions, the Rezoning Program would extend incentives into other areas of the city and complement state rules. It is anticipated that these projects will not require a discretionary action, even when it would otherwise be required (similar to streamlining provisions in SB 35). Sites would allow at least 2.5 stories, 1.75:1 FAR, and mid form-based density limits for affordable housing development in most residentially zoned areas of the city.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Over the course of the next 3 years, the City will have to follow through and implement its rezoning strategies. I don't expect that all 1.4 million new units of upzoned capacity will be built in the next 8 years, as such an hypothetical increase in housing basically doubles LA's housing stock and population. But if it can meet its RHNA requirement, LA will increase its housing stock (and correspondingly population) by up to a third of its current housing stock by the end of the decade. This should substantially deflate the rapid rise in housing costs in the city, though LA, being an attractive coastal city with plentiful jobs, will likely remain more expensive than most other American cities.

Last edited by kittyhawk28; Jan 6, 2022 at 9:22 PM.
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