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  #3061  
Old Posted May 29, 2021, 10:49 PM
Truenorth00 Truenorth00 is offline
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Originally Posted by esquire View Post
Totally agree that this is the real reason. The feds spend money on all kinds of things all the time so the ability to do so is not the issue at all here. It comes down to political will which is totally lacking.
Find me a political party that does anything without expecting electoral return. And that's really the problem. You want to convince any of the federal parties to invest in inter-city rail, you gotta show them which ridings can be flipped (or retained) and for how long. If I'm a federal Liberal MP, looking at the Transport Minister and this $4-6B HFR idea he's pitching in caucus, I'm thinking $20M in my riding can win me quite a lot of votes. Will HFR give me the same benefit? Now imagine the math for $16B HSR proposals.

It's also why the federal Liberals don't show much interest in rural rail. Trudeau could ribbon cut a Hyperloop to their doorstep and they'd curse him for it. And the Conservatives know those votes are in the bag, so they might as well use that money to buy votes elsewhere. There's a similar dynamic to why, for example, expensive subways (like the DRL) are ignored while governments will happily spend all kinds of money vote swinging suburbanites (like GO's $12B RER).

I don't blame politicians for playing politics. I blame voters for not caring enough.

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Considering the fact that the last meaningful progress towards HSR in the corridor was the purchase of Turbo trainsets in the 60s, the two provinces might as well step in and take over... it's not like they would really do any worse than Ottawa/VIA have over the last 40+ years.
I look at what is happening with GO RER and I think it's time to acknowledge that GO is going to outshine VIA in the Corridor. Even the feds are throwing billions at this. Their RER commitment even came before they started HFR studies or before GO had even finished RER definition!

And no political party at the federal or provincial level questions any of GO's plans any more. They ask for billions and they get it. And that's entirely because of the massive swing vote belt GO serves. Give them the Corridor and watch GO develop it at a pace that VIA's CEO could never dream of.
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  #3062  
Old Posted May 29, 2021, 11:07 PM
milomilo milomilo is offline
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Originally Posted by swimmer_spe View Post
Via could be broken up for different types of service, but that isn't the problem. The problem is that all rail lines are very busy. Some of that is due to shear increase in goods being moved by train, while other reasons have more to do with the fact that where there once was double track, some of it has been removed simply to save costs. Having a little plane land at YYZ during normal times is no different than adding more VIA service. Something has to change before anything better can happen outside the Corridor. HFR route is the answer for the Corridor. It won't be the answer elsewhere.
The "problem", if you can call it that, is that the routes you desire to have rail service do not have the ridership demand to justify it. That's all there is to it and where the debate ends.
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  #3063  
Old Posted May 29, 2021, 11:17 PM
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Originally Posted by Truenorth00 View Post
Find me a political party that does anything without expecting electoral return. And that's really the problem. You want to convince any of the federal parties to invest in inter-city rail, you gotta show them which ridings can be flipped (or retained) and for how long. If I'm a federal Liberal MP, looking at the Transport Minister and this $4-6B HFR idea he's pitching in caucus, I'm thinking $20M in my riding can win me quite a lot of votes. Will HFR give me the same benefit? Now imagine the math for $16B HSR proposals.

It's also why the federal Liberals don't show much interest in rural rail. Trudeau could ribbon cut a Hyperloop to their doorstep and they'd curse him for it. And the Conservatives know those votes are in the bag, so they might as well use that money to buy votes elsewhere. There's a similar dynamic to why, for example, expensive subways (like the DRL) are ignored while governments will happily spend all kinds of money vote swinging suburbanites (like GO's $12B RER).

I don't blame politicians for playing politics. I blame voters for not caring enough.
...and yet, when people like myself and GoTrans push for better service you curse us. We care. We care a lot. I care about service outside of the Corridor because as bad as the Corridor is, it is still much better than everywhere else. I live in a fairly safe seat for the liberals/NDP. Trudeau could ignore us and still count on it not going blue. That means that giving anything here is not a priority. I get it.

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Originally Posted by Truenorth00 View Post
I look at what is happening with GO RER and I think it's time to acknowledge that GO is going to outshine VIA in the Corridor. Even the feds are throwing billions at this. Their RER commitment even came before they started HFR studies or before GO had even finished RER definition!

And no political party at the federal or provincial level questions any of GO's plans any more. They ask for billions and they get it. And that's entirely because of the massive swing vote belt GO serves. Give them the Corridor and watch GO develop it at a pace that VIA's CEO could never dream of.
Part of the reason they are so successful is they own most of their lines. Look at where they own and look at where they are expanding and the 2 go hand in hand. Interestingly, the places they haven't expanded much on are CP owned lines. I doubt there would be much expansion of VIA if GO got involved. There just isn't the investment from the government that is needed to get the number of trains up. That is what is really needed; money, not changing ownership. If GO was played like Via is by the feds, you would see standing room only on every line GO ran on.
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  #3064  
Old Posted May 29, 2021, 11:18 PM
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Originally Posted by milomilo View Post
The "problem", if you can call it that, is that the routes you desire to have rail service do not have the ridership demand to justify it. That's all there is to it and where the debate ends.
It is kinda had to have ridership when the train is late and hardly runs in the first place. Would you fly if the plane may be 12 hours late? I wouldn't.
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  #3065  
Old Posted May 29, 2021, 11:31 PM
Truenorth00 Truenorth00 is offline
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The "problem", if you can call it that, is that the routes you desire to have rail service do not have the ridership demand to justify it. That's all there is to it and where the debate ends.
Yep. And again GO is instructive here. Think back 15 years, GO didn't own much track. It didn't have the huge parking structures. Or electronic fare payment. But the trains were packed. And those commuters were voters who were telling their MPPs this had to be fixed. GO saw billions in investment after that. I disagree with this, but consider that GO is now one of the largest parking providers in North America, shows you what can happen when genuine demand is there.

I used to wonder what would happen with that $12B RER price tag. Not only did nobody bat an eye, all parties and all levels of governments happily signed up. It was incredible to see.

Sadly, I don't think VIA being a national entity could pull this off because every part of the country thinks they are owed the same level of service as downtown Toronto. But if they actually had the demand, I doubt governments would ignore them.
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  #3066  
Old Posted May 30, 2021, 12:08 AM
milomilo milomilo is offline
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Originally Posted by swimmer_spe View Post
It is kinda had to have ridership when the train is late and hardly runs in the first place. Would you fly if the plane may be 12 hours late? I wouldn't.
It's also hard to have train ridership in places that don't have a railway connecting them. Do you care at all about them?

But it is easy to have public transit ridership on a superior method of transportation that won't be 12 hours late.
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  #3067  
Old Posted May 30, 2021, 12:12 AM
milomilo milomilo is offline
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Originally Posted by Truenorth00 View Post
Sadly, I don't think VIA being a national entity could pull this off because every part of the country thinks they are owed the same level of service as downtown Toronto. But if they actually had the demand, I doubt governments would ignore them.
I don't think it's as big a deal as you think. Despite what swimmer thinks, very few rural people care about having a train to their village. Why would they? It's not even because they are rubes, it just obviously wouldn't be useful to them.
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  #3068  
Old Posted May 30, 2021, 12:32 AM
thewave46 thewave46 is offline
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Originally Posted by swimmer_spe View Post
Via could be broken up for different types of service, but that isn't the problem. The problem is that all rail lines are very busy. Some of that is due to shear increase in goods being moved by train, while other reasons have more to do with the fact that where there once was double track, some of it has been removed simply to save costs. Having a little plane land at YYZ during normal times is no different than adding more VIA service. Something has to change before anything better can happen outside the Corridor. HFR route is the answer for the Corridor. It won't be the answer elsewhere.
The even bigger problem is that VIA needs capital funding for dedicated rail, but is beholden to political forces (i.e. federal politics) that prevent it from receiving anything near the capital injection it needs to accomplish any meaningful goal. So, any funding it does receive is so diffusely spread as to accomplish almost nothing.

By shuffling parts of that responsibility to a level of government with a vested interest in promoting travel within a province (i.e. within Ontario and Quebec) or to a directly adjacent province, it narrows the focus. Thus, with a politically supportive environment, one can make the case for large capital investments.

The feds don't have to justify spending in Ontario/Quebec if the province of Ontario/Quebec is taking on that responsibility. All those provinces have to do is sell it to the locals, which is easier if those governments can show tangible benefits to those voters.
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  #3069  
Old Posted May 30, 2021, 1:13 AM
swimmer_spe swimmer_spe is offline
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Originally Posted by Truenorth00 View Post
Yep. And again GO is instructive here. Think back 15 years, GO didn't own much track. It didn't have the huge parking structures. Or electronic fare payment. But the trains were packed. And those commuters were voters who were telling their MPPs this had to be fixed. GO saw billions in investment after that. I disagree with this, but consider that GO is now one of the largest parking providers in North America, shows you what can happen when genuine demand is there.

I used to wonder what would happen with that $12B RER price tag. Not only did nobody bat an eye, all parties and all levels of governments happily signed up. It was incredible to see.

Sadly, I don't think VIA being a national entity could pull this off because every part of the country thinks they are owed the same level of service as downtown Toronto. But if they actually had the demand, I doubt governments would ignore them.
GO owns about 370km. That isn't even the distance between Toronto and Ottawa. This is after 35 years. So, GO doing that along the Corridor would take 50 years to own between Toronto and Montreal? Currently Via owns 250km of track. Sounds to me Via is doing just fine when it comes to track ownership, unless you are talking coast to coast.

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Originally Posted by milomilo View Post
It's also hard to have train ridership in places that don't have a railway connecting them. Do you care at all about them?

But it is easy to have public transit ridership on a superior method of transportation that won't be 12 hours late.
If I were king for a day....
I have already said where I would focus on bring a train a day to. Let's start with our major cities with rail there.

The reason AC and WJ aren't late has nothing to do with the method of transportation, but the ownership of key infrastructure. Imagine i AC was legally allowed to buy the 10 biggest airports in Canada by aircraft movement. movement. Let's say they only allowed their aircraft on it, and focused on keeping it on time. Let's say they had to let WJ use it as well, but were not obligated to give their planes the same respect. Is that a good idea? How is that any different than Via?

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Originally Posted by milomilo View Post
I don't think it's as big a deal as you think. Despite what swimmer thinks, very few rural people care about having a train to their village. Why would they? It's not even because they are rubes, it just obviously wouldn't be useful to them.
You know, a whole bunch of rural people along Highway 11 in Ontario think it is a big deal for passenger service. So much so that the government is in the process of bringing them rail. Just imagine if other areas were to have the same vigor, say the people along AB Highway 2. Imagine they got together and pushed ether the province or thee federal government to put something in. Reality is, most people don't care about anything till it is taken away. If it is gone long enough, it becomes irrelevant. You keep talking that that corridor could have rail. Why isn't anyone organizing to get it back?
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  #3070  
Old Posted May 30, 2021, 1:16 AM
swimmer_spe swimmer_spe is offline
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The even bigger problem is that VIA needs capital funding for dedicated rail, but is beholden to political forces (i.e. federal politics) that prevent it from receiving anything near the capital injection it needs to accomplish any meaningful goal. So, any funding it does receive is so diffusely spread as to accomplish almost nothing.

By shuffling parts of that responsibility to a level of government with a vested interest in promoting travel within a province (i.e. within Ontario and Quebec) or to a directly adjacent province, it narrows the focus. Thus, with a politically supportive environment, one can make the case for large capital investments.

The feds don't have to justify spending in Ontario/Quebec if the province of Ontario/Quebec is taking on that responsibility. All those provinces have to do is sell it to the locals, which is easier if those governments can show tangible benefits to those voters.
2 words for Ontario and Quebec...





Equalization payments

Tell me how that plays into this and you might see why I am skeptical it can be run by the provinces. Once you read up on that, please explain how that will not be a problem.
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  #3071  
Old Posted May 30, 2021, 1:30 AM
thewave46 thewave46 is offline
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Originally Posted by swimmer_spe View Post
2 words for Ontario and Quebec...





Equalization payments

Tell me how that plays into this and you might see why I am skeptical it can be run by the provinces. Once you read up on that, please explain how that will not be a problem.
If we're at the point of 'equalization payments', I think I'm going to digress on the matter. This becomes a game of pointing fingers and saying that everybody is mandated to get the exact same mediocrity regardless of individual provincial or ridership circumstances.

I've offered my take on how to make the best of VIA's resources. I'm not going to filibuster this, because nothing will actually change. We've all made up our minds. VIA will continue to be mediocre and burn cash until the government decides to either fix it or shut it down if it requires serious capital injection. Given the status of it, I'd wager on the latter.

Cheers!
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  #3072  
Old Posted May 30, 2021, 1:32 AM
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If we're at the point of 'equalization payments', I think I'm going to digress on the matter. This becomes a game of pointing fingers and saying that everybody is mandated to get the exact same mediocrity regardless of individual provincial or ridership circumstances.

I've offered my take on how to make the best of VIA's resources. I'm not going to filibuster this, because nothing will actually change. We've all made up out minds. VIA will continue to be mediocre and burn cash until the government decides to either fix it or shut it down if it requires serious capital injection. Given the status of it, I'd wager on the latter.

Cheers!
You and I agree on the reality.
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  #3073  
Old Posted May 30, 2021, 3:09 AM
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The "problem", if you can call it that, is that the routes you desire to have rail service do not have the ridership demand to justify it. That's all there is to it and where the debate ends.
Unfortunately there's a little more to it than that. When it comes to government spending priorities a lot of it has to do with value judgements rather than pure economic utility. Over the last couple of weeks a few people have asked questions like, "Why should 1/2 of the country's population get 95% of the service?" These are ultimately questions of fairness or equity, which in turn is a nebulous topic that's inherently about social norms/values and personal perspective and therefore almost impossible to overcome by purely arguing facts and data. At its core, the concept of fairness comes down to whether a person or group feels they're being treated well, which is strongly based on individual perspective.

For instance, in thinking about a city's transit spending, one person may argue that there should be more transit service for community A because A is a poor area and it needs investment. Another may argue community B deserves it because it's wealthier, pays more taxes, and therefore deserves more services in return. Another may argue that community C deserves it because it's denser, resulting in greater ridership and therefore better returns on investment. Meanwhile community D says it's unfair for anyone but them to get it since it's been the longest since they've seen notable investment. They all believe their positions represent the true concept of fairness and are not going to change their minds.

People routinely value things for reasons other than pure functional utility and therefore aren't going to consider something like ridership levels to be the only justification for or against investment. As Jarrett Walker points out, this often comes up in transit debates regarding ridership vs coverage and there's no "stat" that one can present to overcome it. If one person predominantly values economic efficiency and another assigns greater value to aesthetics, user experience, or city/nation building, making arguments directed at one another based on one's own values is pointless. The other person will brush off such arguments simply saying things like, "It would be more successful if there was more investment." If there's any possibility to persuade one another on such issues, the first step is to fully understand what the other person's values are and why the person holds them.

In my case, i haven't said a whole lot on the issues because I don't have particularly strong feelings one way or the other. Yes I love the idea of having the train, but with the current iteration of The Ocean, I value the idea of it's existence more than it's utility. Even if it were to return to daily service (more than doubling its schedule) I still wouldn't be using it because it's slow and I'd have to travel further (across the harbour) to get to it. Unless they were to re-open the Bedford station, and run at least twice a day (preferably more) it's pointless for me. Perhaps it might help some people, but the train makes fewer stops than the bus - including not stopping at the airport - meaning there are fewer people in its catchment. So, unless it became significantly faster along with the improved frequency (right now trip time is actually slower than motorcoach) which would require huge investment, I can't see it helping many other people either.

Perhaps the investment would be worth it in terms of GHG reductions, but that isn't really clear either as it might be more effective to fund green power generation, subsidize electric vehicles or improve intercity bus service. That's why my main concern tends to be The Corridor. From a practical standpoint I feel like it could be extremely useful to a lot of people due to the ridership potential, and from an aesthetic standpoint I also have an attraction to the idea/imagery of core of the country having a frequent rail network similar to those in other countries. We're so sparsely populated as a country I feel like that's the one region that's really well suited to passenger rail. I enjoy the idea of trains being more spacious and comfortable, ultimately the main purpose of trains is that they're higher capacity since they can be much longer than a motorcoach. But with smaller passenger volumes you run into the issue of either it not being as cost effective to maintain the track for just that service, or if the service shares the track with freight, the issue of the two interfering with one another. That's why The Corridor getting a dedicated track intrigues me.

But the fact remains that these decisions are not purely economic and utilitarian. I remember one class I was in at Dalhousie which explored the idea of Canada as represented in art and literature. One module talked about the railway and how it was the focus of some of Canada's earliest art not made by indigenous people. For instance, there were extensive advertising campaigns which included innovative posters intended to market Canada to wealthy European travelers in order to sell rail tickets and fill the railway hotels. These posters married the Canadian railways with magnificent scenery and ideas of adventure and wilderness, making them some of the earliest and most enduring images of Canada in the global media and public consciousness. The railways have continued to be closely connected to the idea of Canada ever since. I can understand why someone would value the idea of the railway being connected to every part of the country or why they maintaining that specific mode important despite arguments in favour of buses, etc.

The fact is, things like railways can have cultural, social, and traditional significance beyond their nominal function, and governments can and do choose to subsidize things for reasons other than direct utility or economic return. Whether or not one thinks they should is always going to be at least partially a matter of individual values and priorities and that's ok. We can disagree as long as we can be nice and respectful to one another despite such differences. While I personally place a greater weight on the economic and utilitarian side of things (though I do place weight on both), to each their own.
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  #3074  
Old Posted May 30, 2021, 5:34 AM
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The provincial Liberals tried to do that with the Toronto-Kitchener-London HSR. How'd that work out?

The reality is that there's not enough of a constituency for rail in Canada. Other than some nutters like us on forums like these, nobody is voting according to start rail investment is offered. And certainly not in enough numbers and concentration to flip any seats.
They didn’t really try that hard, before every election they would announce some sort of new study, none of which were based on any understanding of Ontario geography.

I think there is a constituency for significant rail investment, but I think the projects that actually get presented are deeply flawed and not backed with enough analysis and the public can’t buy in.
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  #3075  
Old Posted May 30, 2021, 1:23 PM
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Just throwing this out there

Sell the 'Canadian' to Rocky Mountaineer. Let them operate it as a landcruise and charge whatever the market will bear. VIA could provide a subsidy to Rocky to haul a coach and possibly a basic sleeper for those that just have no other option. You want the domes, fine dining and other amenities...you pay for it.

In the east....the Ocean does serve a more transportation function but other than the coaches and possibly a basic sleeper......let Rocky operate the Sleeper Plus Class along with the domes and dining.
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  #3076  
Old Posted May 30, 2021, 1:41 PM
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Just throwing this out there

Sell the 'Canadian' to Rocky Mountaineer. Let them operate it as a landcruise and charge whatever the market will bear. VIA could provide a subsidy to Rocky to haul a coach and possibly a basic sleeper for those that just have no other option. You want the domes, fine dining and other amenities...you pay for it.

In the east....the Ocean does serve a more transportation function but other than the coaches and possibly a basic sleeper......let Rocky operate the Sleeper Plus Class along with the domes and dining.
Why should the government sell a business unit which generates a positive contribution towards its crown corporation's overheads except for those times of the year where Rocky Mountaineer doesn't operate?

And why would Rocky Mountaineer be willing to accept the burden of providing year-around service along the entire route (VIA equipment will still need to cycle regularly between Montreal/Toronto, Winnipeg, Jasper and - if that maintenance center is kept - Vancouver) for a subsidy payment which is lower than what the Canadian currently costs the tax payer (i.e. $6 million in a year like 2018 or none at all in a year like 2017), especially if that service (especially the subsidized sleeper) is in direct competition to their Hotel business? The only reason I can see Rocky Mountaineer willing to acquire the Canadian is to shut down this unwanted competition (against which they've been lobbying for as long as this company existed), but I don't see any interest in assuming the operation of any of VIA's fleet or services...

Last edited by Urban_Sky; May 30, 2021 at 2:00 PM.
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  #3077  
Old Posted May 30, 2021, 1:53 PM
Truenorth00 Truenorth00 is offline
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If we're at the point of 'equalization payments', I think I'm going to digress on the matter. This becomes a game of pointing fingers and saying that everybody is mandated to get the exact same mediocrity regardless of individual provincial or ridership circumstances.
And this is why I'm so skeptical about VIA achieving much in the Corridor.

Any investment to improve service in the Corridor is met by the arguments about fairness we see here. And of course, the solution naturally is to simply avoid all rail investment at all.

Time to turn over the Corridor to agencies that are not beholden to inter-provincial squabbling.
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  #3078  
Old Posted May 30, 2021, 2:03 PM
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Originally Posted by Truenorth00 View Post
And this is why I'm so skeptical about VIA achieving much in the Corridor.

Any investment to improve service in the Corridor is met by the arguments about fairness we see here. And of course, the solution naturally is to simply avoid all rail investment at all.

Time to turn over the Corridor to agencies that are not beholden to inter-provincial squabbling.
Hence my suggestion of Metrolinx running trains between Toronto and Kanata and of Quebec running theirs between Gatineau and Sainte-Thérèse, with LRT connection x3 (O-Train, Gat-Train, REM) in between. It sounds far fetched, but if interprovincial project is going to be this difficult to pull off, we need to make do.
At this point, sc*** VIA. (Sorry Urban_Sky.)
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  #3079  
Old Posted May 30, 2021, 2:17 PM
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They didn’t really try that hard, before every election they would announce some sort of new study, none of which were based on any understanding of Ontario geography.
Politics aside, what's the issue with TKL? The highways in the area are congested. Companies in Kitchener and London have been screaming for a connection to Pearson. The airport authority is supportive because it doesn't want to waste slots on flights to London. And the whole project was going to build on the Kitchener RER work.

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I think there is a constituency for significant rail investment, but I think the projects that actually get presented are deeply flawed and not backed with enough analysis and the public can’t buy in.
I am not sure about this. I think there will always be a segment for whom the level of analysis done isn't enough. It's also the nature of any investment this large that it's going to take years, see cost overruns and scope increases. Canadians just don't seem to have the ambition and patience to see these things through.

Hopefully, HFR comes in at the typical level of Canadian mediocrity. Would be good to get from Ottawa to a Toronto in 3.5 hrs.
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  #3080  
Old Posted May 30, 2021, 2:20 PM
Truenorth00 Truenorth00 is offline
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Hence my suggestion of Metrolinx running trains between Toronto and Kanata and of Quebec running theirs between Gatineau and Sainte-Thérèse, with LRT connection x3 (O-Train, Gat-Train, REM) in between. It sounds far fetched, but if interprovincial project is going to be this difficult to pull off, we need to make do.
At this point, sc*** VIA. (Sorry Urban_Sky.)
I don't even think the interprovincial part is the problem. Why would Quebec say no to GO trains from Ottawa to Montreal? Why would Ontario say no to Exo trains serving Cornwall and Ottawa? It's not like anybody cares who is running the trains or what the livery is. All they want is service.

I think GO should run HFR through Ottawa, to Montreal. GO should build the Kingston hub too and run trains through Cornwall to Montreal. Leave Exo to run services on both the north and south shore out of Montreal and the long haul to Quebec City and Drummondville.
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