Millennium Line - Broadway Extension: Planning & Pre-Construction

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by misher

Anyone notice that there’s been a ton of new listings listed for much higher than normal along Broadway by Colliers since the election? Think there’s an inside link to city hall that’s told developers something is in the works?

Can you point to other listings? This one is easy to explain; Industrial Alliance Financial are moving (or maybe have moved) out of here to the new office building at Oak and Broadway.

How much are they asking - and how do you know it's 'higher than normal'? What's 'normal' for West Broadway? Sites have been selling consistently since it became apparent that the subway might actually get built. 901 W Broadway sold last year for $22,500,000 - $3m over the assessed value. 950 W Broadway sold in 2016 for $46-million, although it had been assessed at just $18-million. Denny's sold for the rental tower that's about to be built for $26m, in 2016.

[Hooknose]

Originally Posted by Changing City

Can you point to other listings? This one is easy to explain; Industrial Alliance Financial are moving (or maybe have moved) out of here to the new office building at Oak and Broadway.

How much are they asking - and how do you know it's 'higher than normal'? What's 'normal' for West Broadway? Sites have been selling consistently since it became apparent that the subway might actually get built. 901 W Broadway sold last year for $22,500,000 - $3m over the assessed value. 950 W Broadway sold in 2016 for $46-million, although it had been assessed at just $18-million. Denny's sold for the rental tower that's about to be built for $26m, in 2016.

A little bird told me that a site in the 1400 block of Broadway (north side next to the lane) sold for over 800 a foot for each of the 3 square feet you can build on one foot of ground. That is 2,400 dollars per ground foot (104 million dollars per acre).

That is one hell of a lot of lettuce.

[Hooknose]

Originally Posted by misher

Anyone notice that there’s been a ton of new listings listed for much higher than normal along Broadway by Colliers since the election? Think there’s an inside link to city hall that’s told developers something is in the works?

I don't think there is a secret cabal inside city hall that meets in the basement at 4 am with developers (where they exchange rumours about the Broadway line while cutting the heads off chickens and chanting in Mongolian).

Two things to keep in mind. FIRST - it is impossible to keep the line a secret. Things just get out. Drilling rigs in the middle of the street, with a cover story that the City is looking to build more mink farms, just does not cut it as far as keeping a secret goes. Planning and engineering will be asking questions of property owners that give clues. Politicians need to signal that they are doing a great job, and so on.

SECOND, developers are not idiots. They figure stuff out and they risk their skills and fortunes against the market all the time. They get pretty good at sniffing out truth against illusion. They get good at timing. They are always looking for an edge.

It is not just Sherlock who divines things.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by Hooknose

A little bird told me that a site in the 1400 block of Broadway (north side next to the lane) sold for over 800 a foot for each of the 3 square feet you can build on one foot of ground. That is 2,400 dollars per ground foot (104 million dollars per acre).

That is one hell of a lot of lettuce.

1451-1459 West Broadway (the possible station location) on that block is reported to have sold at $2,100 per sq. ft. [source] - so your little bird may be correct. The interim plan for West Broadway is designed to limit unrealistic expectations of huge density changes - but if someone paid $2,400 a sq. ft. it almost certainly wasn't on the expectation of the 3.3 FSR they can build today.

[misher]

Originally Posted by Changing City

1451-1459 West Broadway (the possible station location) on that block is reported to have sold at $2,100 per sq. ft. [source] - so your little bird may be correct. The interim plan for West Broadway is designed to limit unrealistic expectations of huge density changes - but if someone paid $2,400 a sq. ft. it almost certainly wasn't on the expectation of the 3.3 FSR they can build today.

The Pho place sold for $14 million (1451 W Broadway) on BC assessment. https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAwMTBVVg==

PS: I’m not saying there is a secret cabal hooknose. But the NPA or Stewart may have said something at one of the social or fundraising events that Colliers knows? The interim broadway plan made many people unhappy and I wouldn’t be surprised if one of them said they’d change things. I know Stewart’s probably going to push for lower CACs than the interim plan and it seems unanimous that permit times/development times be decreased which should also include the 2.5 year interim plan. GenWhy said he would be talking to them about Broadway soon too. The developer and real estate community tends to talk and have its own circle of gossip.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by misher

PS: I’m not saying there is a secret cabal hooknose. But the NPA or Stewart may have said something at one of the social or fundraising events that Colliers knows? The interim broadway plan made many people unhappy and I wouldn’t be surprised if one of them said they’d change things. I know Stewart’s probably going to push for lower CACs than the interim plan and it seems unanimous that permit times/development times be decreased which should also include the 2.5 year interim plan. GenWhy said he would be talking to them about Broadway soon too. The developer and real estate community tends to talk and have its own circle of gossip.

Perhaps you've overlooked all the pre-election sales? It seems more like since Broadway is an up-and-coming location - especially with a SkyTrain - developers will pay any price, deal with any regulations or taxes or "no condos" rules, so long as they can build something because it will make money regardless.

[Hooknose]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Perhaps you've overlooked all the pre-election sales? It seems more like since Broadway is an up-and-coming location - especially with a SkyTrain - developers will pay any price, deal with any regulations or taxes or "no condos" rules, so long as they can build something because it will make money regardless.

Reality always intrudes. The issue is not just the per square foot of present (or future) FSR. What also impinges on a profitable development are construction costs.

Just a few years ago, concrete was in the 200's per sq foot. (steel was little higher and wood a lot lower). but now, construction is at 400 for concrete - and I have heard some people chatting about 425 per square.

If you don't get the chance for higher density - which lowers the net per square foot price you paid - it is a tight squeeze.

If you have a trade ticket (welder, boilermaker, iron worker, etc) you are on easy street for the next long while. The moment on less building gets built in Vancouver, off you go to the hallowed LNG project.

That means no pressure at all to lower construction costs below 400 per square. That means that any new construction - like Bosa at Oak and Broadway - will be tight.

The demand is there. The Bosa project leased out at one go to basically one client. The buildings may not be.

[Hooknose]

Originally Posted by misher

The Pho place sold for $14 million (1451 W Broadway) on BC assessment. https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAwMTBVVg==

PS: I’m not saying there is a secret cabal hooknose. But the NPA or Stewart may have said something at one of the social or fundraising events that Colliers knows? The interim broadway plan made many people unhappy and I wouldn’t be surprised if one of them said they’d change things. I know Stewart’s probably going to push for lower CACs than the interim plan and it seems unanimous that permit times/development times be decreased which should also include the 2.5 year interim plan. GenWhy said he would be talking to them about Broadway soon too. The developer and real estate community tends to talk and have its own circle of gossip.

Okay, so my graphic description of a cabal came right out of some conspiracy movie and was intended to lampoon the idea.. but I do take your point.

People try and impress one another, people whisper, people hint, thing get heard and things get correlated.

Nothing stays a secret. What is important is when you hear it. Do you hear it first or last?

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by Hooknose

Just a few years ago, concrete was in the 200's per sq foot. (steel was little higher and wood a lot lower). but now, construction is at 400 for concrete - and I have heard some people chatting about 425 per square.

If you don't get the chance for higher density - which lowers the net per square foot price you paid - it is a tight squeeze.

If you have a trade ticket (welder, boilermaker, iron worker, etc) you are on easy street for the next long while. The moment on less building gets built in Vancouver, off you go to the hallowed LNG project.

That means no pressure at all to lower construction costs below 400 per square. That means that any new construction - like Bosa at Oak and Broadway - will be tight.

The demand is there. The Bosa project leased out at one go to basically one client. The buildings may not be.

Peak sand strikes again. Thanks, good information.

[GenWhy?]

Concrete construction definitely at / above $400 and up to $450.

[fredinno]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Peak sand strikes again. Thanks, good information.

We weren't running out of sand, it's just getting more expensive due to greater requirement of grinding rock from larger distances.

[misher]

Looks like 2331 Granville St. just sold. Listing price was $25.8 million, if they got this price which I doubt then they sold for $2389/sqft.

1451 West Broadway sold for $14 million, for $2395/sqft.

Let the Broadway speculation begin again?

[Hooknose]

Originally Posted by misher

Looks like 2331 Granville St. just sold. Listing price was $25.8 million, if they got this price which I doubt then they sold for $2389/sqft.

1451 West Broadway sold for $14 million, for $2395/sqft.

Let the Broadway speculation begin again?

Further to misher's comment about speculation, let me start one about buildings.

If land is cheap, then people tend to build very standard buildings that all look alike.

BUT if land is really expensive then you start to get buildings that try and stand out. Lots of office buildings downtown, now proposed, are coming out with varied buildings, offsetting them every few stories, jutting out here and there.

If land and building costs are high, then a few extra dollars for something spectacular is the right thing to do and reflects in higher rents.

Just saying, maybe this is for the best ... super rapid transit linking super buildings. Comments ?????

[misher]

Originally Posted by Hooknose

Further to misher's comment about speculation, let me start one about buildings.

If land is cheap, then people tend to build very standard buildings that all look alike.

BUT if land is really expensive then you start to get buildings that try and stand out. Lots of office buildings downtown, now proposed, are coming out with varied buildings, offsetting them every few stories, jutting out here and there.

If land and building costs are high, then a few extra dollars for something spectacular is the right thing to do and reflects in higher rents.

Just saying, maybe this is for the best ... super rapid transit linking super buildings. Comments ?????

The city actually pushes developers to design unique buildings. That’s why in US cities they tend to all be massive blocks that maximize floor space.

And yes our high land values has allowed developers to make a profit even though there adding things that increase costs.

All this adding greenery to buildings and curved custom glass is going to bight Owners on the ass later though. I’ve seen what one tree or bush costs long term and can’t imagine what there thinking. Plus I have no idea how much it’s going to be to replace a custom curved piece of glass.

[aberdeen5698]

Originally Posted by misher

I’ve seen what one tree or bush costs long term and can’t imagine what there thinking.

$554K price tag to replace iconic tree at top of condo building

Strata documents obtained by CTV show the owners of the building's condos have no choice in the matter. The city's building permit was contingent on having a rooftop tree, so owners will have to pay about $35,000 per unit for its replacement.

The reason the per-unit cost was so high is that this is an extremely high-end building with just one apartment per floor, so there aren't very many strata association members to spread the cost over.

[misher]

Originally Posted by aberdeen5698

$554K price tag to replace iconic tree at top of condo building


The reason the per-unit cost was so high is that this is an extremely high-end building with just one apartment per floor, so there aren't very many strata association members to spread the cost over.

The tree was one example but I’m referring to other things too. Like if you have a hedge on the side of the building how the hell do you prune it without a massive boom lift (or if it’s too high up then a guy jumping off the roof). How do you water and care for plants on a rooftop that’s outside the balcony? What do you do when the roots eventually grow into the building penetrating the membrane or exterior envelope, etc.

Plants are good for the first 10-20 years usually then they grow. And you can never remove them because the city won’t let you get away with it. We’re literally creating a new high paying job which is landscapers who are able/willing to do jumps.

[WBC]

Originally Posted by misher

The tree was one example but I’m referring to other things too. Like if you have a hedge on the side of the building how the hell do you prune it without a massive boom lift (or if it’s too high up then a guy jumping off the roof). How do you water and care for plants on a rooftop that’s outside the balcony? What do you do when the roots eventually grow into the building penetrating the membrane or exterior envelope, etc.

Plants are good for the first 10-20 years usually then they grow. And you can never remove them because the city won’t let you get away with it. We’re literally creating a new high paying job which is landscapers who are able/willing to do jumps.

Our strata had to get rid of 12 trees on the 3rd floor garden that 20 years after being planted got to be 40+ feet tall and whose roots have started to endanger the envelope...15K later trees are gone not ever to be replaced...We have grass and flower garden left, which is much easier to deal with.

All those green projects look and feel really good until you see the long term cost and complexity you are having to manage. Other then a one time cost of removing the trees we also pay 12K per year for gardening. So, in 20 years our 3rd floor garden cost us 255K...And this is in strata that does things cheaply...

[scryer]

Originally Posted by WBC

Our strata had to get rid of 12 trees on the 3rd floor garden that 20 years after being planted got to be 40+ feet tall and whose roots have started to endanger the envelope...15K later trees are gone not ever to be replaced...We have grass and flower garden left, which is much easier to deal with.

That has always been a question at the back of my mind. Do you think certain types of trees should be planted then?

[Metro-One]

Originally Posted by scryer

That has always been a question at the back of my mind. Do you think certain types of trees should be planted then?

Windmill palms seem to be a good fit for such gardens

[misher]

Originally Posted by WBC

Our strata had to get rid of 12 trees on the 3rd floor garden that 20 years after being planted got to be 40+ feet tall and whose roots have started to endanger the envelope...15K later trees are gone not ever to be replaced...We have grass and flower garden left, which is much easier to deal with.

All those green projects look and feel really good until you see the long term cost and complexity you are having to manage. Other then a one time cost of removing the trees we also pay 12K per year for gardening. So, in 20 years our 3rd floor garden cost us 255K...And this is in strata that does things cheaply...

And if those trees are in your plan you’ll need to replant them to get permits going forward. Your very lucky they were removed before the envelope was damaged. The must have been small trees since 15k sounds way too cheap unless you mean 15k an Owner.