DENVER | Main Development Thread #6

[PLANSIT]

Originally Posted by The Dirt

Is that the north or south corner?

Any details on the Jebel tower usage and height?

Given the work that went into getting the zoning changes and the price paid for the property this summer, I'd guess the scale hasn't changed much from previous proposals.

[Fritzdude]

Originally Posted by PLANSIT

New hotel proposal at 15th and Stout:

I'm assuming this is on the south side of 15th. Interesting how the entire block will be made up of hotels with the exception of BubbaGump Shrimp.

[transistor]

Originally Posted by Fritzdude

I'm assuming this is on the south side of 15th. Interesting how the entire block will be made up of hotels with the exception of BubbaGump Shrimp.

Not really that surprising considering its right next to a convention center that hold +20000 people.

[PLANSIT]

Originally Posted by Fritzdude

I'm assuming this is on the south side of 15th. Interesting how the entire block will be made up of hotels with the exception of BubbaGump Shrimp.

1501 Stout. So, north.

[TakeFive]

I've heard that John Portman has taken a shine to Denver and would be interested in additional projects after Union Tower West. Maybe things are slow in Shanghai and Atlanta. They wouldn't be involved in 1501 Stout though so I'll be curious to see who and what is being proposed.

[pablosan]

Taken last week.

[Tykendo]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

I've heard that John Portman has taken a shine to Denver and would be interested in additional projects after Union Tower West. Maybe things are slow in Shanghai and Atlanta. They wouldn't be involved in 1501 Stout though so I'll be curious to see who and what is being proposed.

That's great news. Always been a fan of his work. A man with vision.

[COS]

Loving the proposal activity, here's hoping developers are finally going to fill in all the lots along 15th that form a giant canyon.

And I know it's been explained on here before, but I feel like our zoning height restrictions are crazy. If El Jebel becomes a new tallest, it'll technically be outside of downtown because we can't have shadows over 16th St Mall and block any other tower's view of the mountains? Am I the only one who feels a mixed use tower like El Jebel makes more sense for residents, businesses, and employees in a more central lot?

[lumos]

Originally Posted by pablosan

Taken last week.

I was counting the floors this week on Confluence and it seems like there may be just one pour to go to cap the last floor. Still finding it hard to love the cheap looking panels.

[DenverInfill]

Originally Posted by COS

Loving the proposal activity, here's hoping developers are finally going to fill in all the lots along 15th that form a giant canyon.

And I know it's been explained on here before, but I feel like our zoning height restrictions are crazy. If El Jebel becomes a new tallest, it'll technically be outside of downtown because we can't have shadows over 16th St Mall and block any other tower's view of the mountains? Am I the only one who feels a mixed use tower like El Jebel makes more sense for residents, businesses, and employees in a more central lot?

Let me help clarify this for you. The D-C (Downtown Core) zone district has no height restriction between 14th and 18th Streets. Buildings are only limited by Floor Area Ratio, but not height.

The row of blocks between 15th and 16th does have a Sunlight Preservation requirement that can limit the location of building massing on those blocks to avoid putting too much of the Mall in shadows, but technically not the building height. There are no ordinances that I'm aware of that restrict blocking any other tower's views of the mountains.

There are View Plane ordinances that restrict development to preserve mountain and skyline views from various places throughout the city, but none that I'm aware of that prohibit the blocking of mountain views from nearby towers. The closest to that would be View Plane ordinance that limits blocking mountain views from the State Capitol looking west. Another one that affects the El Jebel site is the City Park View Plane. I wrote about that in 2008 as it related to a different project nearby:

http://denverinfill.com/blog/2008/04/city-park-view-plane-too-close-to.html

However, the PUD for the El Jebel site exempted the tower from the City Park View Plane.

For the parts of the D-C zone between Cherry Creek and 14th, buildings are restricted to 200 feet. For the parts of the D-C zone between 18th and 20th and east of Broadway, buildings are restricted to 400 feet.

Here's a link to the D-C zoning code that includes a map of these downtown height zones:

http://www.denvergov.org/content/dam/den...Denver_Zoning_Code_Article8_Downtown.pdf

[RyanD]

I froze my rear end off this weekend but it was worth it for a new TOWER CRANE CENSUS!!!

http://denverinfill.com/blog/2016/12/tower-crane-census-winter-2016.html

There are 31 cranes in Central Denver. The new DenverInfill is really neat. There's a map at the bottom of the post which shows the locations of all the cranes!

EDIT: One interesting thing to note. The core on 1144 is stepping back for the upper floors. I was curious if this was going to happen or not:

[The Dirt]

Lovely photos, Ryan! With some new projects in the pipeline, I think we'll definitely stay above 23 in 2017.

[wong21fr]

Thanks for the tour, Ryan, and for braving those balmy temperatures while doing so!

[lumos]

Thanks for taking all the time to create a great reference. And we get photos as a bonus. I appreciate the hard work.

[RyanD]

Originally Posted by The Dirt

Lovely photos, Ryan! With some new projects in the pipeline, I think we'll definitely stay above 23 in 2017.

Thanks!! I think we'll be above 20 in 2017, yes. I just don't think we'll be in the 30's for quite a while again. Unless a condo boom happens!

Originally Posted by wong21fr

Thanks for the tour, Ryan, and for braving those balmy temperatures while doing so!

Originally Posted by lumos

Thanks for taking all the time to create a great reference. And we get photos as a bonus. I appreciate the hard work.

You're more than welcome! My wife tagged along, and we had a great chilly time doing it. It really was a winter wonderland downtown which made it quite fun.

That is until we had to drive around on the non-plowed roads (who knows what was going on there) to get the rest of them. Come May-ish 2017 I'll do another census.

[twister244]

Here's an interesting article on the delay of the HUB project in RiNo. While it's specific to this project, and RiNo in general, it does speak to a potential trend that may explain why we haven't seen the same onslaught of proposals we have seen in the past. This, in conjunction with the high number of apartment units under construction right now seems to indicate things are taking a breather right now. I am sure this company will be able to sneak their way into another RiNo development going up in the neighborhood if HUB can't get off the ground. Doesn't necessarily mean things are all going to come to a halt, but this time in 2017 may have less cranes than what we are used to. 31 construction cranes is a very high number for a city like Denver, and it can't go on forever.

http://www.denverpost.com/2016/12/19/rino-homeadvisor-denver-headquarters-delayed/

[DenverPoke]

Originally Posted by twister244

Here's an interesting article on the delay of the HUB project in RiNo. While it's specific to this project, and RiNo in general, it does speak to a potential trend that may explain why we haven't seen the same onslaught of proposals we have seen in the past. This, in conjunction with the high number of apartment units under construction right now seems to indicate things are taking a breather right now. I am sure this company will be able to sneak their way into another RiNo development going up in the neighborhood if HUB can't get off the ground. Doesn't necessarily mean things are all going to come to a halt, but this time in 2017 may have less cranes than what we are used to. 31 construction cranes is a very high number for a city like Denver, and it can't go on forever.

http://www.denverpost.com/2016/12/19/rino-homeadvisor-denver-headquarters-delayed/

That is a bit odd considering the anchor tenant was still on board. I believe the hotel was rumored to be an ACE, maybe that fell through and they are now looking at 19th and Grant.

[TakeFive]

twister244... That does look like more of a project/site specific issue. But I'd agree with you and RyanD that Denver is likely crane peaking. Pretty amazing though how much construction and how many cranes are out there.

The Trump mania that's driven the stock markets higher with a corresponding dive in the bond markets is weird to me. The 10-year T-Bill which mortgage rates are typically tied to has bounced a full percentage point in a short period of time. There's a saying that a Bull Market likes to climb a "wall of worry" but currently any "worry" is scarce. What few contrarian views there are suggest that by the middle of 2017 the euphoria will do a fast fade. Bond bulls think rates will drop back to near this years lows or about 1.5% (currently ~2.6%) on the 10-year T-Bill by the end of next year.

With absorption having been good in Denver it was easy to predict that developers would keep on truckin' since there was still plenty of capital available at good rates. Availability has already faded some and now with the bounce in interest rates a pause for the cause seems likely.

[PLANSIT]

So much for a slowdown:

Site Address and Description
2016PM0000745 - World Trade Center

Site Address and Description
1720 Platte St - 2016PM0000748 - Platte Street Hotel

Site Address and Description
1903 Chestnut Pl - 2016PM0000750 - Chestnut Place Apartments

Site Address and Description
1480 Wewatta St - 2016PM0000751 - Steelbridge Apartments

Site Address and Description
1150 N Bannock St - 2016PM0000752 - 12th & Bannock

[TakeFive]

^ That's encouraging. But as mhays has warned the decision to break ground is usually made right before they break ground.

I can't predict how much a 1% increase in cost of funds will make. As far as lenders requiring more equity from developers that's likely to be specific to each developer and project. Some have the ability so it's just a matter of do they want to put up the additional equity along with stomaching higher rates. If I had a guess I'd say they may want to move forward with some projects while others will get postponed.

And if we're lucky the contrarians will be right about rates doing a u-turn and maybe we even experience a Trump Recession before 2017 ends.