Calgary International Airport II

[Mazrim]

Originally Posted by YYCguys

I got my invite for October 5th. The deadline to RSVP is Monday, and my schedule for October won't be released until Tuesday, but I still said "yes, I'll be there", and hope for that day off!

I got the same invite - it's the only day in my calendar that week that I have meetings I need to attend. Damn!

[holhm22]

Originally Posted by Mazrim

I got the same invite - it's the only day in my calendar that week that I have meetings I need to attend. Damn!

Same here as well, but I'm in high school, so no way I can make it.
Do remember to tell them you can't go in the RSVP so that they will ask you for other trials in the future if you haven't done so already

[Cage]

Originally Posted by holhm22

Same here as well, but I'm in high school, so no way I can make it.

What classes would you give up to partake in the trial?

I would argue that if gym is one of the classes, you would get more exercise and health benefits from walking the new terminal.

[cyeg66]

Originally Posted by holhm22

Same here as well, but I'm in high school, so no way I can make it.
Do remember to tell them you can't go in the RSVP so that they will ask you for other trials in the future if you haven't done so already

School shmool. You gotta rethink your priorities, kid. This is a once-in-a-generation thing, unlike school which goes on for...e....ver. I know which I'd choose. You shouldn't be writing finals, or even midterms, for that matter, around Oct 5th.
---> just playing the role of the devil on your shoulder.

[holhm22]

Originally Posted by Cage

What classes would you give up to partake in the trial?

I would argue that if gym is one of the classes, you would get more exercise and health benefits from walking the new terminal.

Math, Chem, Physics. All grade 12, trying to get into engineering. Can't afford to miss a class unfortunately.

[Takeoff]

hey guys i ham having a hard time figuring out why domestic pax is up but frequency are going down

[jmt18325]

Originally Posted by Takeoff

hey guys i ham having a hard time figuring out why domestic pax is up but frequency are going down

Bigger and fuller planes.

[Cage]

Originally Posted by ST1

One would have to think WS would have at least some part in it. Unless AT was significantly cheaper, it's not likely anyone would use the connector to YYZ for a Europe trip.

Any bets on how long it will take Noflyzone to give a grandiose announce that AT no longer will be doing overseas flights from YYC?

A connection at YYZ T3 is quite pleasant provided that TS stays in main terminal and GTAA does not impose a bus or infield terminal operation. For comparatives YYC terminal (pre new international terminal) has a similar footprint to YYZ T3.

AC mainline connection to Rouge at YYZ is what is powering the recent summer seasonal expansion to a dozen European cities. The rouge operation is profitable expansion into TS prime territory for the wide body operations. TS wide body is at 23 aircraft while rouge wide body fleet is 19 smaller aircraft.

Turning attention to the financial state of affairs: AC and WS have improving financial condition while Groupe TransAt is on the ropes. Groupe TransAt has not had a profitable quarter in over one year and the upcoming summer quarter does not look good.

Groupe TransAt has sold off the European package holiday business to turn around the company finances. This will be interesting as the Company is now required under accounting rules to split out European discontinued operations from the Canadian continuing operations. To be revealed in the next quarter financial release, are the Canadian operations profitable or break even. Initial releases suggest that the later is true.

There is a maxim in Canadian aviation circles, "a goose with a lawn chair on its back can make money in the Canadian summer holiday season". By early November we will know if Groupe TransAt can do better than the proverbial goose. If Canadian Ops are unprofitable in q3-2016, expect a major strategic shift by Groupe TransAt or a major shake-up at the executive management ranks.

The best news for Air TransAt (the airline portion of Groupe TransAt) is that WS 763 operational difficulties will likely postpone and further strategic moves by WS for at least the next 18 months. It is near impossible the WS board would give management the go ahead to purchase additional 763s for operational expansion. The WS board might give management the go ahead to buy one 763 for spare parts, but this will not be for operational use.

Additional saving grace for Air TransAt, any strategic move by WS to fix the wide body operation will require a new pilot agreement, further increasing the timeline for WS wide body expansion or replacement.

On the AC Rouge competition front, Air TransAt has continued need for migraine relief because the future is not going to get any easier. AC management is publicly talking about doing another deal with ACPA (pilot union) for rouge expansion. Further AC management is openly discussing the profitability of rogue wide body flying, further indicating that any rouge expansion will be at the wide body space rather than narrow body market. ACPA in the last few years has demonstrated to be the most open to mutually beneficial agreements, the union militant faction has largely retired or been reduced to a small minority of individuals. This signals that a new agreement for additional wide body aircraft is within easy reach for AC management.

With the Air TransAt crystal ball becoming opaque, there is increased probability of a significant disruptive event within the Canadian airline marketplace. This disruptive event would be in the order of an acquisition of Air TransAt by either AC or WS.

[jmt18325]

A Westjet purchase of TS would really increase their international capacity. I don't think they're ready for that yet.

I don't see how their fleet would help Air Canada, other than possibly the A330s. No way Air Canada would operate the 737s or A310s.

[outoftheice]

Great analysis of the current state of affairs with Transat. I'd agree with almost all of it except for the last bit about an acquisition of Transat but either AC or WS. Transat has a pilot group that is quite senior. Airline mergers and in particular merging pilot seniority lists tend to be an ugly affair and I think this would turn off AC from any acquisition. Transat is also very heavily unionized and I think that fact alone would turn Westjet off any acquisition.

In my mind the two most likely scenarios involve Air Transat simply folding up shop. Either Groupe Transat continues as a tour operator but begins to buy blocks of seats on other airlines such as Sunwing and Rouge (this has already started in a limited fashion) thus allowing it to wind up operations at Air Transat or the Groupe Transat operations are sold off piecemeal to competitors with the three most likely acquirers being AC Vacations, Sunwing Travel or another large Canadian tour operator and Air Transat is left out of the deals to either sink or swim as a stand alone scheduled holiday airline (at which point it would probably sink).

I hope I'm wrong as I quite enjoy Air Transat's product and service and I would like to see them enjoy continued success in the Canadian market (and that's coming from someone that works for a competitor!) Either way, the announcement of Air Transat expanding its cross country service to help it hub out of YYZ and YUL is good news for Calgary and if successful I can see further expansion of the service which might one day lead to expanded Air Transat wide-body service from YYC (if they see large demand for a specific destination not current offered)

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by outoftheice

Either way, the announcement of Air Transat expanding its cross country service to help it hub out of YYZ and YUL is good news for Calgary and if successful I can see further expansion of the service which might one day lead to expanded Air Transat wide-body service from YYC (if they see large demand for a specific destination not current offered)

But TS has actually done the opposite. In the last few years they've done nothing but wind back Western Canada operations. Gone are direct links from YVR to FRA and MUC and from YYC to FRA, MUC and GLA and of course pulled out of YEG completely. They've also dumped the YYC-LGW winter flights (other than a token 2 flights just for Xmas). Although they have expanded YVR-LGW to daily in the summer and expanded to twice weekly in the winter and added a new (well technically re-instated) YVR-FCO route. I don't think any further Western Canada-Europe expansion is on their radar other than feeding their YYZ and YUL flights hence their expanded transcon services.
For WS to fill their 3 weekly YYC-LGW flights in the winter will require a lot of feed/support from Westjet's Western Canada network and probably also some Western US cities. Probably why TS just abandoned the route in the winter anyway. Too small a market to have 4 wide bodies per week to LGW.

[PPAR]

The desirability of making connections in YYZ and YUL when heading to Europe is limited by the considerable additional travel time. After a 4 hour flight to Eastern Canada, the length of the European leg is only shortened by about an hour.
Direct flights out of YYC to Europe are about 8 hours, a connection through YYZ will often be a 13 hour trip. All but the most price sensitive travellers will be willing to pay a little more to get directly over the pond. Transat may not be as successful as they hope.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by PPAR

The desirability of making connections in YYZ and YUL when heading to Europe is limited by the considerable additional travel time. After a 4 hour flight to Eastern Canada, the length of the European leg is only shortened by about an hour.
Direct flights out of YYC to Europe are about 8 hours, a connection through YYZ will often be a 13 hour trip. All but the most price sensitive travellers will be willing to pay a little more to get directly over the pond. Transat may not be as successful as they hope.

Yes, and all it takes sometimes is one competitor to dump capacity at heavily discounted rates to affect the whole market, making connections like the Transat ones even less desirable.

[Johnny Aussie]

AC seems to be getting very bearish on the YYC (non-USA) sun destination market... and the USA one too really... But

This winter looks like only one weekly to CUN and one weekly to PVR both on mainline A319s. This is a far cry from the 9 weekly to 5 destinations last year.

[Bigtime]

I always forget that AC flies the CUN route, damn near everyone I know is always on WS for flights to there and other spots in Mexico.

[hoboman27]

Originally Posted by holhm22

Math, Chem, Physics. All grade 12, trying to get into engineering. Can't afford to miss a class unfortunately.

stop it, you are making the rest of us feel old.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by Bigtime

I always forget that AC flies the CUN route, damn near everyone I know is always on WS for flights to there and other spots in Mexico.

Maybe that's why AC is reducing the flights... Nobody is flying with them!

Last couple of winters there were three to four flights per week just to CUN on AC.

[Bigtime]

Funny enough I did fly AC down to CUN years ago. A319 and we had to fuel stop in DEN on the way back up.

[Cage]

Originally Posted by PPAR

The desirability of making connections in YYZ and YUL when heading to Europe is limited by the considerable additional travel time. After a 4 hour flight to Eastern Canada, the length of the European leg is only shortened by about an hour.
Direct flights out of YYC to Europe are about 8 hours, a connection through YYZ will often be a 13 hour trip. All but the most price sensitive travellers will be willing to pay a little more to get directly over the pond. Transat may not be as successful as they hope.

You are analyzing a nonstop out of YYC compared to a single connection YYZ. The TS YYC-YYZ flight connects to a dozen European destinations not served nonstop from YYC. If the pax is connecting anyway; YYZ T3 is much easier transfer over LHR/LGW, FRA, or AMS.

A little more money to get over the pond is running at $200-$300 round trip. For the visiting friends and relatives market this is a maybe, but for the packaged tour market that is TransAt bread and butter, the extra money is a non starter for nonstop over the pond.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by Bigtime

Funny enough I did fly AC down to CUN years ago. A319 and we had to fuel stop in DEN on the way back up.

The drop in flights is due to the ongoing move of leisure flights to rouge. AC doesn't seem interested in putting mainline metal on the sun routes. And as we know rouge closed their western A319 base. This makes it tougher as all A319 rouge aircraft have to cycle through YYZ eventually. This also seems to explain the reduced flying from YYC to PHX and LAS this winter. The other option is use the YVR based rouge 763s but they seem to be fully utilised and will be operating all of the YVR rouge flights this winter with the exception of one of the two daily YVR-LAS flights which will be on a 319. All other YVR rouge flights will be 763s (35 flights per week this winter).

Also, YYC-OGG would most likely have been rouged now if it wasn't for the NRT route still on mainline 763s. I'm sure AC is trying to figure out what to do with that but perhaps they will just leave it as 3 weekly 763s for some time.