The Big Atlantic Canada Statistics Thread

[Monctoncore]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Saint John pessimism is cancerous.

If you'd like to provide some statistics to the Atlantic Canada Statistics Thread you're more than welcome to. I thought my contribution on tourism and accommodation occupancy were a good counter-perspective in our discussion on how Saint John's numbers were, and I quote, embarrassing, where I provided numbers to prove otherwise. You can view it as going after someone and I view it as providing a different, substantiated opinion.

You don't have to be a fan of me but not many are going to be a fan of you if you continue to berate their discussions on this forum.

I would say Saintjohner is having a bad week, it happens to us all. Your information JHikka is always wanted, it's nice to have people who can build on conversation instead of just kill it (SaintJohner)

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by SaintJohner

I'm just not a fan of him, comes on a defends everything Saint John does along with everyone else on here, then we have the Fredericton pages filled with page after page of boring talk about the same 6 things for months out of time. Moncton talking about retail and the constant need for chain restaurants, it's just silly. But as for JHikka he comes on here and goes after anyone who says anything negative (this is a discussion page for having debates and discussions about cities) he's a moderator and that's where it should end. Feel free to post, but don't use your power to go after people because they have a different opinion than you.

Sheesh, relax. JHikka didn't come after you, he simply provided some numbers to continue the discussion. You're acting like a child.

I agree with JHikka, hotel room rates probably don't reflect the whole story in Saint John considering the number of cruise ships which enter port each summer. It's a wildcard which Fredericton and Moncton don't have to deal with.

[MonctonRad]

Moneysense magazine has come out with their annual ranking of the best cities in Canada to live for 2016. The methodology is frequently attacked for being sketchy, and the magazine always fails to take into account the "intangibles" which can make one city seem more attractive than the other for whatever reason, but the rankings can be a source of lively debate.

As usual, the Atlantic Canadian cities have done poorly in the rankings compared to their central and western Canadian brethren, but here is the ranking of our cities, for better or for worse:

#49 - Moncton, NB
#74 - Halifax, NS
#99 - Charlottetown, PE

#109 - Fredericton, NB
#143 - St. John's, NL
#155 - Gander, NL
#188 - Corner Brook, NL
#191 - Saint John, NB
#193 - Edmundston, NB

#203 - Bathurst, NB
#206 - Summerside, PE
#208 - Kentville, NS
#209 - Miramichi, NB
#211 - Campbellton, NB
#212 - Amherst, NS
#214 - Bay Roberts, NL
#216 - Grand Falls/Windsor, NL
#217 - Sydney, NS
#218 - Truro, NS
#219 - New Glasgow, NS

Since there were only 219 communities in the rankings, the fact that 11 out of the 20 Atlantic Canadian cities in the survey didn't even crack the top 200 is quite an indictment.

There appears to be quite the urban/rural disconnect in Nova Scotia. Halifax did OK, ranking at #74 but none of the other five communities in the survey from that province ranked higher than #208. In fact, all three of the worst communities in Canada (according to Moneysense) were from NS......

[lawsond]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Moneysense magazine has come out with their annual ranking of the best cities in Canada to live for 2016. The methodology is frequently attacked for being sketchy, and the magazine always fails to take into account the "intangibles" which can make one city seem more attractive than the other for whatever reason, but the rankings can be a source of lively debate.

As usual, the Atlantic Canadian cities have done poorly in the rankings compared to their central and western Canadian brethren, but here is the ranking of our cities, for better or for worse:

#49 - Moncton, NB
#74 - Halifax, NS
#99 - Charlottetown, PE

#109 - Fredericton, NB
#143 - St. John's, NL
#155 - Gander, NL
#188 - Corner Brook, NL
#191 - Saint John, NB
#193 - Edmundston, NB

#203 - Bathurst, NB
#206 - Summerside, PE
#208 - Kentville, NS
#209 - Miramichi, NB
#211 - Campbellton, NB
#212 - Amherst, NS
#214 - Bay Roberts, NL
#216 - Grand Falls/Windsor, NL
#217 - Sydney, NS
#218 - Truro, NS
#219 - New Glasgow, NS

Since there were only 219 communities in the rankings, the fact that 11 out of the 20 Atlantic Canadian cities in the survey didn't even crack the top 200 is quite an indictment.

There appears to be quite the urban/rural disconnect in Nova Scotia. Halifax did OK, ranking at #74 but none of the other five communities in the survey from that province ranked higher than #208. In fact, all three of the worst communities in Canada (according to Moneysense) were from NS......

Halifax is becoming a larger and larger magnet within NS and growing and diversifying rapidly. The rural areas are totally tanking because of Halifax's magnetic pull. The outer suburbs of Halifax are sprawling in all directions. The downtown core is growing up into the air with 10 to 25 storey condos. the building boom Downtown is dramatic. nS will never again see areas outside the umbrella of Halifax...approx 100 km grow.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by lawsond

Halifax is becoming a larger and larger magnet within NS and growing and diversifying rapidly. The rural areas are totally tanking because of Halifax's magnetic pull. The outer suburbs of Halifax are sprawling in all directions. The downtown core is growing up into the air with 10 to 25 storey condos. the building boom Downtown is dramatic. nS will never again see areas outside the umbrella of Halifax...approx 100 km grow.

This is a major demographic trend all over the world. The "full service" metropolitan areas are growing the most, areas within day trip distance are doing okay, and areas farther away are shrinking.

Expectations around standards of living pretty much assume city services now. The wealthier and more mobile class expect to be near a major hospital and airport, they want to have good local schools and universities, they want good local cultural options, etc. Isolated small towns can't really cut it anymore and appeal to a narrower segment of society than they used to.

Often this trend is perceived within NS as being about Halifax somehow getting favoured or feeding off of the rural areas but it's more fundamental than that and is beyond the control of the provincial government at this point. If there weren't a city in NS for people to migrate to they would leave the province entirely. The situation isn't great if you're in Yarmouth or Cape Breton but most people in NS, including a large share of the rural population, are close enough to Halifax that the overall impact isn't too bad.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by lawsond

Halifax is becoming a larger and larger magnet within NS and growing and diversifying rapidly. The rural areas are totally tanking because of Halifax's magnetic pull. The outer suburbs of Halifax are sprawling in all directions. The downtown core is growing up into the air with 10 to 25 storey condos. the building boom Downtown is dramatic. nS will never again see areas outside the umbrella of Halifax...approx 100 km grow.

Originally Posted by someone123

This is a major demographic trend all over the world. The "full service" metropolitan areas are growing the most, areas within day trip distance are doing okay, and areas farther away are shrinking.

Expectations around standards of living pretty much assume city services now. The wealthier and more mobile class expect to be near a major hospital and airport, they want to have good local schools and universities, they want good local cultural options, etc. Isolated small towns can't really cut it anymore and appeal to a narrower segment of society than they used to.

Often this trend is perceived within NS as being about Halifax somehow getting favoured or feeding off of the rural areas but it's more fundamental than that and is beyond the control of the provincial government at this point. If there weren't a city in NS for people to migrate to they would leave the province entirely. The situation isn't great if you're in Yarmouth or Cape Breton but most people in NS, including a large share of the rural population, are close enough to Halifax that the overall impact isn't too bad.

You're right, someone. It's pretty much like this everywhere now, and it's especially prevalent in places like Atlantic Canada, where there are often only one or two major cities in a province; rural populations are either flocking there or being encompassed by the growing metro boarders.

Same thing here in Newfoundland in regards to St. John's. Minus the 10-25 storey condos downtown

[lawsond]

Originally Posted by someone123

This is a major demographic trend all over the world. The "full service" metropolitan areas are growing the most, areas within day trip distance are doing okay, and areas farther away are shrinking.

Expectations around standards of living pretty much assume city services now. The wealthier and more mobile class expect to be near a major hospital and airport, they want to have good local schools and universities, they want good local cultural options, etc. Isolated small towns can't really cut it anymore and appeal to a narrower segment of society than they used to.

Often this trend is perceived within NS as being about Halifax somehow getting favoured or feeding off of the rural areas but it's more fundamental than that and is beyond the control of the provincial government at this point. If there weren't a city in NS for people to migrate to they would leave the province entirely. The situation isn't great if you're in Yarmouth or Cape Breton but most people in NS, including a large share of the rural population, are close enough to Halifax that the overall impact isn't too bad.

Yup...and that is exactly the case in mor remote areas of NS. There is a resentment of Halifax somehow being given all the money while other people go without. But it is simply urban gravity which will eventually spread beyond the provincial borders. It would be ridiculous to suggest anyone would move to HRM to go to IKEA but it is symptomatic of that growing gravity. There are 20 stores I counted in HRM that are seen nowhere else east of Montreal and that is likely to accelerate. I was amazed to see Browns shoes in the HSC. MEC downtown as well as Khiels, Coach, fossil, a full service Banana Rep and many others now popping up. And of course IKEA. It blew me away that Hudson Bay has only one store in the entire Atlantic region in HRM. Money brings money. People bring people. And tastes for things increase beyond H&M and Old navy and Soft Moc.

[MonctonRad]

There is more than simply "urban gravity" going on here. There is an underlying disinterest in the more rural areas of the province by the intelligentsia in Halifax, in some ways bordering on contempt.

It is interesting that today, on CBC news, they reported on a well attended protest in Cape Breton dealing with doctor shortages. There are over 10,000 people in Cape Breton without a family doctor. One of the physicians speaking at the protest, referring to the fact that there is now only a single health care authority for the entire province, thus removing any semblance of local control, made this comment; "we've been left minding the farm, but they've taken the keys for the tractor to Halifax". Several private citizens at the protest made comments about how they always have to make a five hour car drive to Halifax to get any form of specialist care - to loud applause.

I remember when I did a paediatrics rotation at the IWK when I was a resident that there was a statistic floating about that there were 100 paediatricians in Nova Scotia, but that 97 of them practiced in Halifax. I found this appalling. This meant that well healed denizens in the south end could have private paediatricians for primary care of little Johnny or Jill, while residents of Yarmouth would only get referrals to a paediatric specialist for the most difficult of cases, and then have to wait months to actually see the doctor.

Is this fair?

There has to be more equity in NS. Halifax is the engine of the province to be sure, and should have all the resources that this status commands, but not at the expense of the rest of the province, or the region in general.......

[josh_cat_eyes]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

There is more than simply "urban gravity" going on here. There is an underlying disinterest in the more rural areas of the province by the intelligentsia in Halifax, in some ways bordering on contempt.

It is interesting that today, on CBC news, they reported on a well attended protest in Cape Breton dealing with doctor shortages. There are over 10,000 people in Cape Breton without a family doctor. One of the physicians speaking at the protest, referring to the fact that there is now only a single health care authority for the entire province, thus removing any semblance of local control, made this comment; "we've been left minding the farm, but they've taken the keys for the tractor to Halifax". Several private citizens at the protest made comments about how they always have to make a five hour car drive to Halifax to get any form of specialist care - to loud applause.

I remember when I did a paediatrics rotation at the IWK when I was a resident that there was a statistic floating about that there were 100 paediatricians in Nova Scotia, but that 97 of them practiced in Halifax. I found this appalling. This meant that well healed denizens in the south end could have private paediatricians for primary care of little Johnny or Jill, while residents of Yarmouth would only get referrals to a paediatric specialist for the most difficult of cases, and then have to wait months to actually see the doctor.

Is this fair?

There has to be more equity in NS. Halifax is the engine of the province to be sure, and should have all the resources that this status commands, but not at the expense of the rest of the province, or the region in general.......

For the most part the same is true on PEI. You always have to leave the province anytime you have a serious diagnosis.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by josh_cat_eyes

For the most part the same is true on PEI. You always have to leave the province anytime you have a serious diagnosis.

I don't mean this thread to get sidetracked into a medical debate, but in response to your comment:

There is no question that you should be prepared to travel to major centres to get subspecialist care for serious diagnoses like cancer, but there should be "generalist specialists" in all the smaller regional centres to act as an immediate back-up for GP's who may not have the appropriate knowledge to know what they are dealing with. It's also more appropriate and gives better patient satisfaction if the more mundane serious conditions can be dealt with close to home where there is family support to help the patient through a frightening experience. You wouldn't want to have to be air-evacuated to Halifax to have your appendix taken out after all.........

Back to the paediatrician example, the IWK is the paediatric referral hospital for the Maritimes, and it is only appropriate that the vast majority of paediatricians practice out of this facility (including all paediatric specialists) but it is simply outrageous that 97% of the paediatricians in the province work there and live in Halifax - 80%, possibly even 85% might be fair, but certainly not 97%.

Rural GP's need back-up, and this means general surgeons, general internists, OB/GYNs, general paediatricians and general radiologists in the community, not all clustered in Halifax..........

[Taeolas]

CBC article on some NB Population stats:

New Brunswick sets 3 populations records in first 3 months of 2016

An influx of Syrian refugees helped New Brunswick set what was likely a 70-year immigration record last winter, one of an unprecedented three separate population firsts experienced by the province during the first three months of 2016.

Overall, New Brunswick grew by 1,133 people during the first quarter of the year, the single largest gain in six years.

The growth was entirely the result of a modern high 1,994 immigrants, who came to the province between January and March, at least 60 per cent of those Syrian refugees.

...

But those stunning immigration numbers also hid two other major depopulation developments last winter, involving the filling up of the province's funeral parlours and the emptying out of its maternity wards.

According to Statistics Canada, the province set a modern record both for the most number of deaths in a three-month period (1,953) and the least number of births (1,563). Both counts also extend back to 1946.

New Brunswick first recorded more deaths than births during the first quarter of 2011 when the gap was nine.

This year the gap was 390.

[JHikka]

NB's Quarterly Population Estimate:

2015 Q2 754,185
2015 Q3 753,871
2015 Q4 754,164
2016 Q1 754,735
2016 Q2 755,868

http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26?lan...Val=1&p1=1&p2=31&tabMode=dataTable&csid=

NB has been seeing a pretty drastic swing in population location as its population ages. The following two maps should give an indication of that:





As the median age rises in the north the change in population provides for a centralization of NB's population in the south. Primarily, Fredericton and Moncton have been growing whilst the North has been shrinking. In 1991 Northern NB combined for 1/3 of NB's population; that has shrunk to nearly 1/4 in 20 years and will continue to shrink as the elderly population disappears as the younger generation has already left.

So placing the Syrian refugee families in the metropolitan areas will only increase the population divide between urban and rural NB and aid in the rapid centralization of the population.

[mmmatt]

Nice analysis and graphics JHikka!

I'm excited for the 2016 numbers so we can update stuff like this

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by mmmatt

I'm excited for the 2016 numbers so we can update stuff like this

Indeed. We'll likely be getting the population numbers for the 2016 Census in the spring of 2017 if the timeline is anything similar to the 2011 Census. Perhaps with technology we'll get them sooner but it's government so that's pretty unlikely.

The population estimates are updated to 2015 but should generally be taken with a grain of salt as they're simply just estimations. Their trend continues the trend that I emphasized in those maps which means a further hollowing out of rural areas and a further build on urban areas. If anything, the estimations 2011-2015 speed up the process of shifting population of the province. If the 2016 Census numbers are any continuation of the 2015 estimates then the population shifting will become more drastic than the most recent 2006-2011 period.

[pierremoncton]

Actually, 2016 population & dwelling counts are scheduled for release faster than ever - on February 8.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/eng/about/smr09/smr09_061

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by pierremoncton

Actually, 2016 population & dwelling counts are scheduled for release faster than ever - on February 8.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/eng/about/smr09/smr09_061

Ah! An accelerated schedule. Don't hear that in Ottawa every day.

[MonctonRad]

Tosin007 on the Canada section keeps close tabs on populations for Canadian CMAs, using official StatsCan figures, updating them on monthly basis using known growth rates for each municipality. I think they are pretty accurate.

Using his calculations, as of July 1st, Moncton has probably achieved a milestone. The Moncton CMA has likely surpassed 150k (150,345)

Here are his estimates for the 10 largest CMA/CA populations in Atlantic Canada as of July 1st, 2016.

1) Halifax NS - 422,300
2) St. John's NL - 216,962
3) Moncton NB - 150,345
4) Saint John NB - 127,128
5) Fredericton NB - 116,140
6) Sydney (CBRM) NS - 105,649
7) Charlottetown PE - 74,575
8) Truro NS - 47,694
9) New Glasgow NS - 38,504
10) Bathurst NB - 33,220

A grand total of 1,332,517 people live in these ten CMAs/CAs, out of a total regional population of 2,381,362 (56.0%)

[KnoxfordGuy]

Now let's push those numbers up to 85% urban and we will be on par with the rest of Canada haha if I recall Ontario was at 50% urban in like the 1940s lol

[JHikka]

Have to take Tosin's work with a grain of salt as it's entirely speculative.

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

Now let's push those numbers up to 85% urban and we will be on par with the rest of Canada haha if I recall Ontario was at 50% urban in like the 1940s lol

They're getting there. Smaller municipalities are getting smaller and larger municipalities are getting larger as a %. Municipalities between 10K and 20K grew on average of 4.5% between 2001 and 2006 whereas municipalities smaller than 2K shrank by an average of 4.9% during that same time period. Organized municipalities grew by 1% of the total share of population between 2001 and 2006 which will only increase as the rural areas age and empty out.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

Now let's push those numbers up to 85% urban and we will be on par with the rest of Canada haha if I recall Ontario was at 50% urban in like the 1940s lol

Currently NB is at 53/48 Urban/Rural split. Ontario was at that mark in 1911 and Quebec in 1921. NB is essentially a century behind on its urban development on a provincial level, at least compared to those two. Saskatchewan was at a similar level in 1971.

It's a bit of a plug for my blog but I posted on this subject this morning. The following table should give a good indication of where the population has gone and where it's going:


source:nbpolicy.com

It seems likely that NB's Urban/Rural split will slide up to 55/45 in the 2016 Census but that's purely speculation on my part. Getting to 60/40 would be nice for 2021.