Calgary International Airport II

[Cage]

I took a boo at the air whiners thread on YYC-IAH. After doing this route for the past year as part of my employment, I don't think there is strong market for WS and only limited market for AC. In short this market is totally for UA.

For a lot of Calgary based companies, there are offices in both DEN and IAH. My trips are indicative of a lot of people in that they would include both a DEN and IAH. In this space only UA can provide service. AC can provide partial service in conjunction with UA star partner. For WS to service the market, they would need both a IAH/HOU and DEN flight.

Additionally, there is a medium strength market size for service to OKC from YYC, this market is again the domain of UA, although DL can provide equivalent service on SLC or MSP.

Finally there is the issue of competition concerns on IAH run. Specifically, that if WS goes into IAH for a single season then AC UA can fully merge their operations on the transborder. This makes it unlikely that WS would enter the market in a speculation basis.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by Cage

I took a boo at the air whiners thread on YYC-IAH. After doing this route for the past year as part of my employment, I don't think there is strong market for WS and only limited market for AC. In short this market is totally for UA.

For a lot of Calgary based companies, there are offices in both DEN and IAH. My trips are indicative of a lot of people in that they would include both a DEN and IAH. In this space only UA can provide service. AC can provide partial service in conjunction with UA star partner. For WS to service the market, they would need both a IAH/HOU and DEN flight.

Additionally, there is a medium strength market size for service to OKC from YYC, this market is again the domain of UA, although DL can provide equivalent service on SLC or MSP.

Finally there is the issue of competition concerns on IAH run. Specifically, that if WS goes into IAH for a single season then AC UA can fully merge their operations on the transborder. This makes it unlikely that WS would enter the market in a speculation basis.

Thanks for the insight. Mine was just from a broad spectrum from thousands of km away.

This all makes sense. I guess with UA putting the 4th daily back on soon (even though it's only an E75) really is indicative of its dominance. The fact AC sticks to its 3 CR7s also confirms your viewpoint.

I was a bit surprised that YYC-IAH is almost double YYZ-IAH in numbers but when you really think about it... Does make sense. I think when people think Texas they think oil but really more Houston than Dallas by far which also makes sense when comparing Houston / Dallas numbers to Canada.

I was a bit surprised by its lower LF but I am sure more than made up for by yields.

[tuffyy]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Is the Southwest launch there a new launch or a transfer from Air Tran? And I also understand they are going to expand to 5 destinations within a few months and about 8 daily flights.

The only reason I ask is Southwest's (current) business model is they usually launch a new city with a minimum of 5 daily flights. And as pointed out by Cage they have a unique ground handling set up that requires dedicated gates etc. There were some other issues as well, but too lazy to go back and read them.
My concern with Canada is they would be unlikely to launch a city with just one or two flights per day. So like I say they generally go in big or don't at all. And longer thinner routes routes wreck havoc on their yields.
Really rethinking their strategy, I really don't see very many cities in Canada with enough transborder traffic that would suit their model. I am sure there is a lot of potential in Canada but when they really sit down and crunch their numbers they will find limited opportunities. I'm not saying it's not impossible but I would be surprised if they actually did launch Canada for at least a few more years. Also remembering their smallest plane seats about 140 pax. They don't have any Express size aircraft to suit the smaller thinner markets.
YYZ by far the largest market, but costs, AC and Porter would be huge barriers to entry.
YVR with rouge ramping up and a fairly diversified network and really only LA and SF areas large enough.
YYC with Westjet's base (unless they do somehow retry an alliance with Southwest of some sort) be tough other than say HOU.
YUL don't really know.
YEG despite its growth in % terms it seems to be struggling with its current flights, UA and DL cutting frequencies/capacity this winter. Bright spot being AA with the new DFW and soon to start LAX flight. But quite Express oriented.
As for the rest, doesn't leave many opportunities.

Yes it was basically a transfer from Air Tran metal to it's own on a few routes so far, with more to be taken over in the coming months.

[DizzyEdge]

Anyone know the cost of the terminal expansion? Wondering how it will compare to Indianapolis' 1.1 billion new airport
http://www.citylab.com/design/2014/08/th...s-a-destination-in-its-own-right/379043/

[YYCspotter]

http://www.tpr.alberta.ca/tourism/progra...df/AlbertaAirAccessQualityStudyFinal.pdf

This may well be the most interesting study of Alberta's air access that i've seen. The information is from 2011/2012 and includes a lot of O&D statistics (Pg. 77 onwards) for Calgary/Edmonton - many different countries, and then compares them to the rest of Canada. It's interesting to see how much larger Calgary is than Edmonton in respect to O&D numbers.

Remember that this data is two years old and some markets have experienced a lot of change since then.. think China growing at 25% per year..

There is so much interesting information here I don't even know where to begin.. just take a look..

[Cage]

Originally Posted by YYCspotter

http://www.tpr.alberta.ca/tourism/progra...df/AlbertaAirAccessQualityStudyFinal.pdf

This may well be the most interesting study of Alberta's air access that i've seen. The information is from 2011/2012 and includes a lot of O&D statistics (Pg. 77 onwards) for Calgary/Edmonton - many different countries, and then compares them to the rest of Canada. It's interesting to see how much larger Calgary is than Edmonton in respect to O&D numbers.

Remember that this data is two years old and some markets have experienced a lot of change since then.. think China growing at 25% per year..

There is so much interesting information here I don't even know where to begin.. just take a look..

Nice study, some interesting information, however I pity the consultant who goes over to the airlines and complains that some markets are under served. The airlines have the missing data from this study, that is revenue and yield information as well as market segmentation. Let's face it individual business traveller is more value to the airlines than group tour charter traffic.

My other problem with the study is that is lays blame for declining tourism and air traffic at the hands of the airlines and government air access policy. However there is no mention of other tourist factors. For example it's nice to have air access, but there has to be something to attract tourists to the region. In this regard, canada tourism authorities are falling behind. Seeing the Rocky Mountains is nice, but most tourists come here for the activities. Most horrific from inbound tourism perspective, there is a local NIMBY aversion to commercializing the national parks with recreation activities.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by YYCspotter

http://www.tpr.alberta.ca/tourism/progra...df/AlbertaAirAccessQualityStudyFinal.pdf

This may well be the most interesting study of Alberta's air access that i've seen. The information is from 2011/2012 and includes a lot of O&D statistics (Pg. 77 onwards) for Calgary/Edmonton - many different countries, and then compares them to the rest of Canada. It's interesting to see how much larger Calgary is than Edmonton in respect to O&D numbers.

Remember that this data is two years old and some markets have experienced a lot of change since then.. think China growing at 25% per year..

There is so much interesting information here I don't even know where to begin.. just take a look..

Intervistas is a former client of mine and very reputable.

Yes a very interesting and thorough analysis. But just like most industries, this info is already outdated. So many changes in international services since this was published along with the related trends etc. But it definitely does show how large the YYC market in relation to Alberta as a whole. Interesting how this points out the increasing # of visitors but goes against the recent developments of air services (mainly Europe). Lufthansa and Edelweiss gone. AC to LHR reduced capacity, TS rolling back capacity year-round etc. Yay to Condor and KLM though! But as Cage points out the missing information which explains all that rests with the airlines!

Even still looking at both the inbound numbers and the O&D outbound numbers just shows how large the YYC market is compared to YEG, but also how surprisingly huge the YVR market actually is too! Even with rapid growth with China (YYZ and YVR are experiencing similar) it really does show how much smaller the Alberta market is for China, Japan, Korea and Taiwan. No wonder YVR has so many Asian flights ;-)

[YYCspotter]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Intervistas is a former client of mine and very reputable.

Yes a very interesting and thorough analysis. But just like most industries, this info is already outdated. So many changes in international services since this was published along with the related trends etc. But it definitely does show how large the YYC market in relation to Alberta as a whole. Interesting how this points out the increasing # of visitors but goes against the recent developments of air services (mainly Europe). Lufthansa and Edelweiss gone. AC to LHR reduced capacity, TS rolling back capacity year-round etc. Yay to Condor and KLM though! But as Cage points out the missing information which explains all that rests with the airlines!

Even still looking at both the inbound numbers and the O&D outbound numbers just shows how large the YYC market is compared to YEG, but also how surprisingly huge the YVR market actually is too! Even with rapid growth with China (YYZ and YVR are experiencing similar) it really does show how much smaller the Alberta market is for China, Japan, Korea and Taiwan. No wonder YVR has so many Asian flights ;-)

Exactly, it really does show how big the YYZ and YVR markets are in comparison to YYC. It is interesting to note the potential China market from Alberta in the coming years. Based on the 2012 O&D statistics with China from Calgary (46,212), and a year over year growth rate of 25%, in 2014 YYC's China O&D should be around 72,000 passengers annually. This works out to be about 100 PDEW between YYC and China. If half of those are going to and from PEK, which is entirely possible, then it supports the YYCAA claim that there are 50 PDEW each way between YYC and PEK.

If you use the same parameters (25% growth rate) for the whole of Alberta, then the Alberta-China market in 2014 should be around 119,000 passengers annually, or 163 PDEW. The market size still pales in comparison to YYZ and YVR but at the rate it is growing, the demand volume wise for non-stop service will grow too.

Although as Cage stated there is a lot of information such as yields and market share that haven't been taken into account from the report, but with the growing Chinese investment in the oil patch I would like to believe they (yields) should be getting stronger by the day.

[Policy Wonk]

Originally Posted by Cage

I took a boo at the air whiners thread on YYC-IAH. After doing this route for the past year as part of my employment, I don't think there is strong market for WS and only limited market for AC. In short this market is totally for UA.

You no doubt noticed the sea of Aeroplan and MileagePlus status tags...

These are mileage whores, they wouldn't fly WestJet on the company's dime with a gun to their head.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by YYCspotter

Exactly, it really does show how big the YYZ and YVR markets are in comparison to YYC. It is interesting to note the potential China market from Alberta in the coming years. Based on the 2012 O&D statistics with China from Calgary (46,212), and a year over year growth rate of 25%, in 2014 YYC's China O&D should be around 72,000 passengers annually. This works out to be about 100 PDEW between YYC and China. If half of those are going to and from PEK, which is entirely possible, then it supports the YYCAA claim that there are 50 PDEW each way between YYC and PEK.

If you use the same parameters (25% growth rate) for the whole of Alberta, then the Alberta-China market in 2014 should be around 119,000 passengers annually, or 163 PDEW. The market size still pales in comparison to YYZ and YVR but at the rate it is growing, the demand volume wise for non-stop service will grow too.

Interesting but inbound PEK does represent about 50% of China visitors into YYC. So pretty spot on.

New connections to SEA and increasing buildup of other China flights from the west coast from YVR all the way down to LAX is giving so many other options to get to China which does make it a bit more difficult to nab a non-stop flight in any market as each of these routes entice connecting passengers.

I also think part of the "problem" in gaining more direct Asian flights is geography and that YYC and YEG are seen as competing airports. This is something the report alludes to. Despite YYC being that much larger than YEG and much more lopsided when it comes to inbound visitors, to look at the markets as a combined total is tough. For China, you would think Edmonton has a slight advantage in geography but YYC in market size. Airlines are shying more away from shared services for the additional costs attributed to them (unless 5th freedoms exist). I can see it happening but I would think still a few years away. Plus of course AC's YYC-NRT as Japan still has a geographic advantage into Asia from our region.

It doesn't take much to steal a few pax in a market to kill a direct flight. Icelandair in YEG, for example, may be (repeat may be) partially the reason why AC pulled YEG-LHR, TS pulled YEG-LGW and UA has now pulled YEG-EWR.

[holhm22]

YYC gate renumbering news article: http://www.yyc.com/News/tabid/91/article...ts-Ready-to-Renumber-its-Facilities.aspx

[Johnny Aussie]

http://www.yyc.com/en-us/media/factsfigures/passengerstatistics.aspx

Another excellent month!

Records broken again... Best month ever for overall and domestic and best July ever for transborder and international.

Total pax close to 8.8 million.

Rolling 12 months just shy of 15 million.

Overall up 6.4% to 1,446,643 (up 87,000) YTD up 7.5%
Domestic up 7.1% to 1,051,844 (up 69,300) YTD up 7.5%
Transborder up 5.0% to 274,331 (up 13,000) YTD up 8.2%
International up 4.1% to 120,468 (up 4,700) YTD up 6.4%

August should be the first 1.5M month :-)

[cyeg66]

^not bad at all. Funny how I find a 6.4% increase only mediocre because it's the second lowest monthly growth this year so far, higher only than March's 5.1% growth. That said, YYC always revises their stats upwards with the next month's reveal. For example, June was initially released showing 7.8% growth but somewhere in their books they found enough unreported bodies to raise it to 8.9% (closer to what I initially thought June would bring in). I suspect July will really come in close to 7% when they revise the numbers. Hello 15M, goodbye 15M....

[Bigtime]

Crazy town indeed, just wait until the IFP opens and all those A388's start showing up...

[cyeg66]

Originally Posted by Bigtime

Crazy town indeed, just wait until the IFP opens and all those A388's start showing up...

You know it's funny 'cause someone always takes the bait on A.net, aka the point of confluence of all aviation professionals.

[Johnny Aussie]

Originally Posted by cyeg66

^not bad at all. Funny how I find a 6.4% increase only mediocre because it's the second lowest monthly growth this year so far, higher only than March's 5.1% growth. That said, YYC always revises their stats upwards with the next month's reveal. For example, June was initially released showing 7.8% growth but somewhere in their books they found enough unreported bodies to raise it to 8.9% (closer to what I initially thought June would bring in). I suspect July will really come in close to 7% when they revise the numbers. Hello 15M, goodbye 15M....

I didn't even see that. But thanks for the update. Don't think I've seen that big an adjustment before. Looks like the revision was due to an undercount of about 12,000 in domestic. That's quite a few unreported bodies. The main driver of growth is coming from domestic. I was expecting Int'l to be a bit slower growth but would have expected it to be a bit higher than the 4.1% recorded though with the AC 77Ws. About 75 additional intl pax per day departing.

[Spring2008]

Crazy some months have been close to 10% growth. We should finished well over 15M pax this year. Prob closer to 15.5M

[Johnny Aussie]

I think most airlines have finalized their winter scheds. Although as we all know UA sometimes changes by the hour!

Comparing to last winter (note when I say gains I mean capacity not necessarily service - I still have yet to fly rouge but I have 2 coming up):

GAINS

AIR CANADA

LAX - rouged - 2 daily 319 (up from 2 daily mainline E90s)
PHX - rouged - daily rouge 319 (up from daily mainline E90)

note: LAS - rouged - 1 daily 319 (up from 1 daily mainline 320) - technically this is a wash in seats
note: OGG has escaped being rouged this year!

ALASKA

SEA - up 7 weekly to 4 daily DH4s (Horizon)

AMERICAN

DFW - upgauge to 2 daily 738s from 2 daily M83s

DELTA

SEA **NEW** - 2 daily ( 1 each CR7 and CR9)
MSP - up 1 weekly to 2 daily E75s

UNITED

SFO - 2 of 3 daily upgauged from CR7 to E75

WESTJET

PSP - up 2 to 16 weekly
PHX - up 2 to 19 weekly
LAS - up 1 to 21 weekly

LOSSES

UA - DEN - All Express flying. Last winter 2 of the 5 daily were mainline. Plus a slight reduction in frequencies early December.
UA - IAH - 1 of 4 daily mainly downgauged to E75
WS - MIA - 6 weekly discontinued

And I think that's it.... for now

[AlbertanToo]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

I think most airlines have finalized their winter scheds. Although as we all know UA sometimes changes by the hour!

Comparing to last winter (note when I say gains I mean capacity not necessarily service - I still have yet to fly rouge but I have 2 coming up):

GAINS

AIR CANADA

LAX - rouged - 2 daily 319 (up from 2 daily mainline E90s)
PHX - rouged - daily rouge 319 (up from daily mainline E90)

note: LAS - rouged - 1 daily 319 (up from 1 daily mainline 320) - technically this is a wash in seats
note: OGG has escaped being rouged this year!

ALASKA

SEA - up 7 weekly to 4 daily DH4s (Horizon)

AMERICAN

DFW - upgauge to 2 daily 738s from 2 daily M83s

DELTA

SEA **NEW** - 2 daily ( 1 each CR7 and CR9)
MSP - up 1 weekly to 2 daily E75s

UNITED

SFO - 2 of 3 daily upgauged from CR7 to E75

WESTJET

PSP - up 2 to 16 weekly
PHX - up 2 to 19 weekly
LAS - up 1 to 21 weekly

LOSSES

UA - DEN - All Express flying. Last winter 2 of the 5 daily were mainline. Plus a slight reduction in frequencies early December.
UA - IAH - 1 of 4 daily mainly downgauged to E75
WS - MIA - 6 weekly discontinued

And I think that's it.... for now

My AC flight in February 2015 has been "Rouged" to OGG now.

I'm just trying to figure out the schedule juggle with that OGG bird being a Rouge 763 cause then they can't turn it to NRT as AC9. On OGG days that mainline plane would get in before dawn and just sit all day long before operating 850 to LHR. Right now AC3/4 YVR-NRT and our NRT flight share a couple of 763.