Area housing market poised for rebound, firm says

KevinFromTexas · #1 Posted **Jan 8, 2010, 10:12 AM**

Quote:

Area housing market poised for rebound, firm says
Data suggest home starts have neared bottom as tax credit attracts buyers.

By Shonda Novak
AMERICAN-STATESMAN STAFF

Updated: 8:19 p.m. Monday, Jan. 4, 2010
Published: 8:05 p.m. Monday, Jan. 4, 2010

A bottom is in sight for Central Texas' new-home market, with a slow recovery expected this year, according to Residential Strategies Inc., which tracks the housing market.

...

http://www.statesman.com/business/re...ys-162474.html

Scottolini · #2 Posted **Jan 21, 2010, 3:44 AM**

Quote:

Austin home sales up 5 percent in December

By Shonda Novak | Wednesday, January 20, 2010, 02:21 PM

Sales of existing home sales in Central Texas rose 5 percent in December from the previous December, bringing total sales for 2009 to 19,005, down 6 percent from 2008, the Austin Board of Realtors reported.

The median price was up 6 percent in December, to $194,000, but throughout 2009 it slipped 1 percent, to $188,480, the board said.

...

http://www.statesman.com/blogs/conte..._the_real_deal

Scottolini · #3 Posted **Jan 21, 2010, 3:46 AM**

Slightly off topic, but it's funny that in the midst of one of the worst recessions in recent history, over 19,000 homes were sold last year, yet some folks act like a few hundred condominiums for sale in downtown is some insurmountable obstacle to overcome.

KevinFromTexas · #4 Posted **Jan 21, 2010, 4:06 AM**

Yep. There was a story on Fox7 tonight about Hanger Orthopedics opening offices at the Domain, and some guy remarking how that would require 163 new homes to be built complete with utilities and roads and other amenities "oh my". My first reaction was that developers would probably giggle at that modest number. Seriously? Most of the time developers build on speculation anyway, so his was a moot point.

tgbAustinite · #5 Posted **Jan 22, 2010, 4:41 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by KevinFromTexas

Yep. There was a story on Fox7 tonight about Hanger Orthopedics opening offices at the Domain, and some guy remarking how that would require 163 new homes to be built complete with utilities and roads and other amenities "oh my". My first reaction was that developers would probably giggle at that modest number. Seriously? Most of the time developers build on speculation anyway, so his was a moot point.

that's too funny. people who don't have a clue shouldn't be talking. can you say knowledge deficit?

Scottolini · #6 Posted **Jan 22, 2010, 9:41 PM**

Free speech is a wonderful thing, so long as you have an educated populace. Same thing goes for all of our freedoms.

H2O · #7 Posted **Jan 24, 2010, 6:17 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scottolini

Free speech is a wonderful thing, so long as you have an educated populace. Same thing goes for all of our freedoms.

That was none other than Brian Rogers, the guy who started the Stop Domain Susbsidies campaign.

KevinFromTexas · #8 Posted **Jan 25, 2010, 12:57 AM**

Really though, 163 homes is nothing really. My one street alone, which is 3/4 of a mile long, has 93 houses on it. And that's just one street in a neighborhood of 24 streets inside of an area that is .42 miles by .93 miles. Some of those streets are shorter than mine, some are longer. I would guess there's probably over 1,000 houses in my neighborhood.

Scottolini · #9 Posted **Jan 25, 2010, 1:37 AM**

And the city won't be building the houses. Private companies will, and that's a positive, as a whole lot of folks make a living in construction related jobs.

I'm sure the property taxes collected off these new homes will more than pay for those infrastructure improvements in not too many years.

Besides, that's what cities do is build infrastructure when needed. How that can be twisted into a negative is hard for me to grasp.

Austinite · #10 Posted **Jan 25, 2010, 7:29 PM**

The argument I've heard from some of my Downtown Austin Alliance buddies is that there are only 400 new condos for sale downtown and in a metro area of c. 1.5 million that's nothing. Well, that's 400 "new" condos; it doesn't count all of the condos that were bought as investments and are unoccupied and can't be resold for the original purchase price. Regardless, 400 condos is a lot of condos -- the entire Austonian has fewer than 200 units, if memory serves -- especially at up to a $1,000 per foot. Similarly, 160 houses is a lot of houses, especially at the Domain.

We've got a few more months to compare current home sales and prices with the worst sales and price figures of the recession; we've also got a few more months before the tax credit expires. Data over those months should look great. If, instead, it looks like the data from the past few months -- better than death but not as good as it should look given current incentives and rates and in comparison with the worst housing figures in history -- we're all in a bit of trouble.

Jdawgboy · #11 Posted **Jan 25, 2010, 9:04 PM**

^metro pop is 1.7 million not 1.5

KevinFromTexas · #12 Posted **Jan 25, 2010, 11:16 PM**

I also love how people say the market is oversupplied/overbuilt, but then still freak out at the idea of a need for 163 new homes. Well then, if the market is oversupplied and overbuilt, then wouldn't those required 163 new homes already exist? Of course the market isn't really overbuilt or oversupplied anyway. It's not as though you see huge areas or even single subdivisions that are vacant. Sure, a few homes sell slower, but that's normal in any market condition.

Austinite · #13 Posted **Jan 26, 2010, 2:10 AM**

[QUOTE=KevinFromTexas;4666534]Well then, if the market is oversupplied and overbuilt, then wouldn't those required 163 new homes already exist?QUOTE]

Well, yeah, Kevin, they do. Supply exceeds demand by many thousands of houses in this area. I wasn't defending the idea that 160 houses need to be built; I was refuting the idea that building 160 new houses here isn't a big deal right now. The Austin real estate market isn't going to be confused with Detroit's, but it still really, really, really sucks. It'll probably suck for a few more years. Then it won't, and we can start all over again.

Scottolini · #14 Posted **Jan 26, 2010, 3:06 AM**

The Austin housing market is not overbuilt by any stretch of the imagination. There are roughly 8-9 thousand homes for sale right now in the Austin market, with very little new being built. As the article above stated, last year over 19,000 homes were bought. These numbers are why it's being predicted there will be a housing shortage in the Austin market by next year unless the home builders start putting up homes at a much greater rate.

Scottolini · #15 Posted **Jan 26, 2010, 3:11 AM**

Quote:

CENTRAL TEXAS
Housing expert: Austin faces new-home shortage as economy rebounds
Too few lots under development for builders to meet demand, so prices will rise, local market tracker predicts.
By Shonda Novak
AMERICAN-STATESMAN STAFF
Thursday, August 06, 2009

A scarcity of new lots in the development pipeline, coupled with a continued slowdown in homebuilding through 2009, will create a shortage of new homes in the near future for Central Texas and an increase in home prices for buyers, a local housing expert said Wednesday.

"The fact is that there are not enough new lots being developed," Mark Sprague, the Austin partner for housing market tracker Residential Strategies Inc., said at the Home Builders Association of Greater Austin's midyear housing forecast.

http://www.statesman.com/search/cont...06housing.html

KevinFromTexas · #16 Posted **Jan 26, 2010, 3:16 AM**

^And that was back in the summer when the economy was a bit more unstable.

Austinite · #17 Posted **Jan 26, 2010, 3:48 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scottolini

http://www.statesman.com/search/cont...06housing.html

A housing shortage would depend on an increase in demand. Even with record-low interest rates, an unprecedented tax credit, and static or falling prices, demand for houses is, as it has been, weak in Austin. When the tax credit expires and interest rates rise -- two things that, unlike rising demand, aren't speculative but, instead, inevitable in the next few months -- houses will become more expensive even if prices don't rise.

We all know realtors. Not a single one of them would tell you, in a moment of candor, anything different. Sure, their trade association, consultants, and analysts say the worst is behind us and that things will get better. That may be the case. But it's not going to get better any time soon.

Austinite · #18 Posted **Jan 26, 2010, 3:50 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by KevinFromTexas

^And that was back in the summer when the economy was a bit more unstable.

Since that article came out, the market hasn't improved commensurately with the low cost of borrowing and the availability of incentives and foreclosures. As I suggested in my reply to the guy with the American Psycho picture, that scares everybody with skin in the game.