Quote:
Originally Posted by biketrouble
One last thing, before the long weekend.
My advice to this group is that you need to have better projections of the capacity that is going to be required in the Broadway corridor. I asked this question a couple of days back, and the responses I got were along the lines of "I don't have hard numbers but it's obvious this area will grow like crazy." This is not going to be good enough, if you are advocating spending billions of dollars. It should be possible to do some estimates based on the plans the city already has for the corridor. If you can show that the population or the number of jobs in an area is set to expand by (for example) 30% in 10 years then you should be able to extrapolate from current ridership. You could also factor in converting some of the people currently travelling by car. In addition you can factor in some growth that is driven by the expansion of capacity. The important thing here is to have a plausible model that explains why capacity will need to expand, and by how much.
Without numbers like this, it's not all that productive to be debating the finer points of headways and car lengths with the likes of MJ. The thing that I find somewhat ironic is that much of the debate has been centered on a 20K pphpd figure that actually comes from MJ, almost certainly because it's the maximum plausible capacity of an LRT!
..Mark..
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I would refer to the COV study on
skytrain vs rapidbus vs LRT. I refer to pages 43, 49 and 51 (unable to post them, but click the link). Among other things, they use 1999 projections of growth to 2021 from COV, base a a 1% per year growth in enrollment at UBC, and assume that 'skytrain-like' rapid transit is running along cambie. Instead of giving pphpd figures, the give annual rides number and annual passengers new to transit. And of course, the skytrain analysis only ran until Arbutus, with rapidbus to UBC.
Interestingly, they predict similar numbers of high ridership for LRT and skytrain to arbutus (42 mil for lrt, 43 mil for skytrain/arbutus), meaning that LRT should be able to keep up with needs up until 2021. However, this is LRT in a semi-exclusive ROW and 3 minute headways on the surface - with its attendant effects on neighbourhood impacts. and of course, one has to wonder what demand would be like after 2021. They also report Skytrain will be able to attract more new riders than LRT.
For comparison, there were
33 million annual rides on the E and M lines in 2003.
Therefore, demand will be strong with either LRT or skytrain. Future growth past 2021, and other considerations (capital cost, neighbourhood impacts, etc) are the differences.