Growth worries pile up over I-5 bridge project
Some fear the Columbia River Crossing will add to sprawl and pollution
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
DYLAN RIVERA
The Oregonian
The governors of Oregon and Washington and the U.S. transportation secretary have called fixing the Interstate 5 traffic bottleneck at the Columbia River a top priority for the nation and the Northwest.
The $4.2 billion Columbia River Crossing bridge project could unclog congestion that inhibits freight movement, causes a high accident rate and slows mass transit to a crawl.
But in easing I-5 congestion -- and absorbing more traffic -- the region faces thorny questions that could influence growth for decades to come:
Will replacing a six-lane bridge with 12 lanes promote sprawl in Clark County, undermining land-use goals?
Will a bridge with 44,000 more cars a day moving at faster speeds raise the risk of traffic fatalities even as it reduces the number of fender benders?
Will the additional traffic emit more pollution into the air in North Portland and Vancouver, compromising public health or Northwest efforts to curb global warming?
These and other questions make this bridge more than just a bridge.
Engineers from the Oregon and Washington highway departments insist that the project will avoid all pitfalls. They say the Columbia River Crossing would improve safety and rein in sprawl by imposing steep rush-hour tolls and pushing MAX light rail into Clark County.
"It's not just a bridge project, it's not just a highway project, it includes all these other elements," says David Parisi, the lead traffic forecaster for the Columbia River Crossing. "I think people forget that there's going to be these other elements that will . . . reduce auto demand."
But some leaders from Metro Council, the regional planning agency, join Portland officials in arguing that less congestion means easier commutes and more bedroom communities.
"We're building it for rush-hour commuters from Clark County -- that's why this is under discussion," Metro Councilor Robert Liberty says. "Why are they the most important? Why are they different from rush-hour commuters from Washington County or Clackamas County?"
The 12-lane bridge will reduce congestion in North Portland and Vancouver by 2030 below the levels motorists experience today, project forecasters say. Instead of traffic chugging along at less than 30 mph for six hours a day, by 2030 the bridge area would be clogged only 5.5 hours -- but with many more vehicles.
The attack on congestion, planners say, is to ease the passage of freight through the area, which includes the ports of Vancouver and Portland as well as key industrial areas.
Planning for growth
But it is also designed to accommodate expected population growth. The Portland-Vancouver metro area is forecast to grow by 46 percent, to 3 million people, by 2030. Clark County is expected to exceed that: Its population could rise by 65 percent in the same period.
Portland City Council members have said at recent public meetings they fear the consequences of enabling Clark County population growth with a new bridge. It could encourage more people to live in far-flung areas of Clark County, chewing up the landscape and adding car use.
As Metro Council President David Bragdon sees it, the challenge is how to build a bridge "without 100,000 people thinking they can move to Battle Ground."
People buy homes and locate businesses based on the transportation infrastructure nearby, says Joe Cortright, a Portland economist who chairs Gov. Ted Kulongoski's Council of Economic Advisors.
"If we build more capacity there, what we're saying is we want more people to live in Clark County and commute to jobs in Portland," Cortright says. "This is contingent on keeping Clark County barefoot and pregnant economically."
But Cortright suggests another alternative: "It's just as easy to say that more jobs will grow in Clark County, and more of the people who live in Clark County will choose to work in Clark County."
More jobs in area
Bridge planners say they used the economic and population forecasts that planners in Portland and Vancouver agreed on.
From 2005 through 2030, Portland-Vancouver employment will grow by 65 percent -- with Clark County registering a 130 percent growth rate. In 2005, Clark County had 125,000 jobs, or 25 percent of the number Multnomah County had. In 2030, however, Metro planners expect Clark County will have 285,00 jobs, or 40 percent of the number for Multnomah County.
That job growth shows that bridge planners don't assume Clark County grows as a bedroom community to Portland, Parisi says. Clark County has its own urban growth restrictions that are intended to contain sprawl.
Expanding the bridge from six to 12 lanes would still limit the growth of commuting, Parisi says, because the new lanes would be less than a mile long, running from one highway on-ramp to another nearby off-ramp. Such "auxiliary lanes," as they are known, would ease traffic flow only in a five-mile stretch from Columbia Boulevard in North Portland to State Route 500 in Vancouver.
Still, the debate about growth will continue to shape discussion of the bridge.
Some fear more pollution
A 39-member task force of elected officials and community groups asked state highway planners to forecast the air pollution the new 12-lane bridge would generate.
Pollution from more highway traffic shouldn't be allowed to harm asthma sufferers and others, said Jill Fuglister, co-director of the Coalition for a Livable Future, a Portland-based sustainability group.
"Low-income communities are already starting with disparate health outcomes," she said at a task force meeting in January. "The effects have more impact on those communities because they're starting with more health impact."
Bridge planners say the project won't increase auto emissions and, in fact, could help decrease them -- even with 44,000 additional vehicles a day. That's because cars moving faster burn gas more efficiently, and bridge planners say Congress is likely to demand more fuel efficiency from automakers.
Carbon monoxide emissions would fall from 6.8 to 5.0 parts per million at the North Lombard-North Interstate Avenue intersection, bridge planners estimate.
In addition, about 20 percent of trips across the river with the new bridge would be on mass transit.
"You're transferring a fair number of people out of their cars and onto transit," says Jeff Heilman, environmental task lead for the project.
But not everyone in the planning business agrees.
The CRC analysis follows a standard argument of highway planners, says Todd Litman, a transportation economist and planner with the Victoria Transport Research Institute in Canada: Allow cars to go faster, they argue, so the vehicles use less fuel and emit less pollution.
But that doesn't hold in the long term, Litman says.
"Usually it works out that in the short term it reduces emissions and that the benefits disappear in a few years," Litman says. "In the long term it increases emissions."
Safety is a problem on the bridge now.
The accident rate for cars approaching the aging, narrow I-5 bridge is about double the rate of comparable highway sections in the Portland area. Motorists on the short bridge on-ramp from Hayden Island get into accidents at the highest rate of any spot on I-5 in Oregon.
"They don't have room to accelerate or decelerate or weave across the highway," Parisi says.
Death rates an issue
But planners, who say the new bridge will improve public safety, haven't studied how it would affect the rate of fatal accidents. Speed kills: The higher speed traffic over the crossing could generate more fatalities, transportation experts say, and as the project cuts congestion, it could boost the number of fatal accidents.
It's reasonable to expect fatalities to grow, as high-speed traffic grows, Litman says. But most transportation engineers "refuse to recognize" that reality, he says.
The rate of fatalities in the bridge area is relatively low now. About one person per year is killed in auto accidents in the five-mile I-5 bridge area, where 134,000 vehicles pass each day.
Bridge planners say it would be too difficult to forecast the number of traffic fatalities but say they hope to soon estimate the economic impact of fender benders and other accidents in terms of medical bills and lost productivity.
Lumping together efforts to replace obsolete, risky on-ramps with highway expansion makes it seem as if one has to happen for the other to also happen, which is not necessarily so, Litman says.
"They probably could come up with a $250 million project that could make the bridges safer," Litman says. "But instead, they want to do a $4 billion project because they want to expand its capacity and handle more vehicles."
Dylan Rivera: 503-221-8532;
dylanrivera@news.oregonian.com For environment news, go to
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