YVR & Sea Island Developments Discussion II

[hehehe]

Originally Posted by Zmonkey

1 out of 50 connected onto EK? Does that just seem wrong to people.
Also, no mention of the Russian airspace issue, for flights this length is a big issue in terms of cost/fuel and time. If that goes away it will change the economics of the flight - unless it really is 1 out of 50 connecting.

1/50 seems absolutely way too low. No way it's only 1/50.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by Zmonkey

1 out of 50 connected onto EK? Does that just seem wrong to people.
Also, no mention of the Russian airspace issue, for flights this length is a big issue in terms of cost/fuel and time. If that goes away it will change the economics of the flight - unless it really is 1 out of 50 connecting.

Originally Posted by hehehe

1/50 seems absolutely way too low. No way it's only 1/50.

Not sure you guys are understanding that statement correctly.

Out of everyone who flew from YVR to South Asia/middle east (so this includes basically every single passenger that flew AC and/or foreign airlines that took passengers from YVR and connected them to South Asia), only 1 out of 50 of those passengers flew AC/EK via DXB.

This is not surprising, considering its a winter seasonal route, operating less than daily since the get go. Also, EK's landing rights to India are maxed out, so EK can't add anymore flights to DEL. Meaning EK can charge a premium for connections to DEL, since they are capacity restricted and flights are always full. So people will choose cheaper options via other carriers.

[Johnny Aussie]

With little fanfare China Eastern resumed flights to PVG last week (twice weekly 359s). China Southern resumed to CAN the week before (twice weekly 789s)

So now we’ve hit 35 intl carriers operating

Also here’s an update on the North Runway modernisation program - nearing completion

https://www.yvr.ca/en/business/north-runway-modernization

[VancityAvgeek33]

Does anyone know what month the new rouge base in Vancouver will open?

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by VancityAvgeek33

Does anyone know what month the new rouge base in Vancouver will open?

When the 737 --> Rouge move was announced, they said it would happen by 2028.

So probably around then.

[nname]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

When the 737 --> Rouge move was announced, they said it would happen by 2028.

So probably around then.

2026 according to this presentation

https://content.presspage.com/uploads/3167/52a2eedd-dd73-4f34-82aa-91d880d02314/investorday2024.pdf

Page 71

[s211]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

The 330s and 772s are being phased out and replaced with A350s so their fleet will be a bit more streamlined

That is good to hear. Their business class offering in A330s was certainly showing its age.

[Calfan12]

Interesting YouTube video of Tway Air’s Vancouver Airport (YVR) operations - from Preparing for Arrival of the Airbus A330 - Check In & pre departure stuff related before Takeoff✅.

https://youtu.be/6WIWI7ACwb8?si=g3GkpZWpZT9sfCc9

[nname]

PD adds daily YVR-PHX starting Feb 2

PD645 YVR 1205 - 1610 PHX 246
PD645 YVR 1635 - 2040 PHX x246

PD646 PHX 1610 - 1929 YVR 246
PD646 PHX 2040 - 2359 YVR x246

[Johnny Aussie]

^ nice to see Porter continuing to expand at YVR and diversifying Transborder competition - Porter will be the 9th carrier offering Transborder flights

And reconnecting to the PHX AA hub with their new partnership

PHX becomes another Transborder route with (at least) three carriers on it as well

https://news.aa.com/news/news-details/20...ancing-North-American-travel-NET-ALP-09/

Nothing really new in here but a brief article about target markets

https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/a...s-sights-rome-ho-chi-minh-city-melbourne

[trofirhen]

Wow!! Ho Chi Minh City, Melbourne (would be nice to have it back!!), and Rome, plus eyes on Barcelona and Lisbon, and whispers of South America. This would make YVR a real global hub.

[ninjakafi_81]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

Wow!! Ho Chi Minh City, Melbourne (would be nice to have it back!!), and Rome, plus eyes on Barcelona and Lisbon, and whispers of South America. This would make YVR a real global hub.

I feel like Ho Chi Minh City will be the next Asian destination out of YVR but I would prefer if Vietnam Airlines started this route just so we have a new foreign tail at YVR.

Once Air Canada starts getting more 787's and XLR's, I could see them bringing back Melbourne and adding Rome and Barcelona. I think Lisbon would be a bit challenging due to constraints at the airport.

Latin America represents another long-term growth area. “There’s really strong business connectivity, particularly into Chile in the mining space, but also Argentina and Brazil,” Smart said. He added that YVR’s position makes it a natural connecting point between Asia-Pacific and South America.

I do wonder how much demand is there between South America and Asia.

[hehehe]

Originally Posted by ninjakafi_81

I feel like Ho Chi Minh City will be the next Asian destination out of YVR but I would prefer if Vietnam Airlines started this route just so we have a new foreign tail at YVR.

Once Air Canada starts getting more 787's and XLR's, I could see them bringing back Melbourne and adding Rome and Barcelona. I think Lisbon would be a bit challenging due to constraints at the airport.



I do wonder how much demand is there between South America and Asia.

I would prefer AC just because they'd be able to make the route more successful with connections and probably have a higher frequency. E.g. I don't think Thai could have made YVR-BKK work to the extent AC did, if at all.

[thenoflyzone]

Latin America represents another long-term growth area. “There’s really strong business connectivity, particularly into Chile in the mining space, but also Argentina and Brazil,” Smart said. He added that YVR’s position makes it a natural connecting point between Asia-Pacific and South America.

That statement is simply not true. If it were true, airlines like CA or MU would transit YVR instead of MAD or AKL on their way to South America.

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=pek-gru%2C+...+pvg-akl-eze%2C+pvg-yvr-eze&MS=wls&DU=mi

Originally Posted by ninjakafi_81

I do wonder how much demand is there between South America and Asia.

I believe the largest market is China-Brazil. More specifically PEK-GRU. Honestly, China to any of the major South American countries probably has decent demand, hence MU's imminent foray into Argentina.

Currently however, the only East Asian airline to fly to South America is CA, on PEK-MAD-GRU. Madrid lies on the great circle route of PEK-GRU. Flying via YVR would add 11% (over 1,000 nautical miles) to the route. (see first link above)

MU is about to start PVG-AKL-EZE in December. AKL is closer to the great circle route between Shanghai and Buenos Aires than YVR is. (again, see first link)

Japan-Brazil is also a big market, NRT-GRU being the primary one. YYZ and JFK lie exactly on the great circle route between the two. YUL is only 2 miles off. YVR isn't that far off (~ 40 NM) but nonetheless, it shows that YVR doesn't have a location edge when it comes to the largest markets from East Asia to South America, and the proof is in the pudding.

This doesn't mean YVR will never have a flight to South America. It just means it will be an uphill battle to secure a route. It probably won't be a foreign carrier. These types of 5th freedom routes are notoriously difficult to make money on. In my opinion, YVR's best bet is AC to BOG. I think it could happen. With 787-10s and XLR's joining the fleet, we'll find out soon enough how important YVR-South America is to AC.

[trofirhen]

I sometimes wonder why Asiana hasn't bid to fly YVR><ICN. Maybe the market just isn't there, but I always though ICN was a major destination, and that Asiana was *A. Anybody know?

[nname]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

I sometimes wonder why Asiana hasn't bid to fly YVR><ICN. Maybe the market just isn't there, but I always though ICN was a major destination, and that Asiana was *A. Anybody know?

1. AC already fly it, and OZ and AC were under the same alliance

2. When KE and OZ merger is confirmed, then it's even less likely for OZ to start the route. The more overlap they have, the more incentive they must give out for other airline to enter the market, whether it's Korean or foreign airline.

In fact, part of the reason that TW is able to expand globally is due to the merger. Most of TW's widebody fleet and European routes are actually coming from KE.

KE immediately increase YVR-ICN service after the merger is fully approved, so maybe it was probably already in the plan during the merger. Recently KE moved the YYZ flight from 73/74 to 77/78, leaving 3 pair of numbers for YVR (71/72, 75/76). Wonder if they will later update the YVR flight numbers, or they are planning for the 3rd flight to YVR...

[Calfan12]

AEROMEXICO NW25 BOEING 737 MAX 9 CANADA OPERATIONS

Aeromexico during Northern winter 2025/26 season schedules Boeing 737 MAX 9 aircraft on selected service to Canada. Planned 737 MAX 9 operations as follows.

Mexico City – Vancouver 02OCT25 – 27NOV25 737 MAX 9 replaces MAX 8 on Day 24

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/251003-amnw25ca

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

That statement is simply not true. If it were true, airlines like CA or MU would transit YVR instead of MAD or AKL on their way to South America.

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=pek-gru%2C+...+pvg-akl-eze%2C+pvg-yvr-eze&MS=wls&DU=mi



I believe the largest market is China-Brazil. More specifically PEK-GRU. Honestly, China to any of the major South American countries probably has decent demand, hence MU's imminent foray into Argentina.

Currently however, the only East Asian airline to fly to South America is CA, on PEK-MAD-GRU. Madrid lies on the great circle route of PEK-GRU. Flying via YVR would add 11% (over 1,000 nautical miles) to the route. (see first link above)

MU is about to start PVG-AKL-EZE in December. AKL is closer to the great circle route between Shanghai and Buenos Aires than YVR is. (again, see first link)

Japan-Brazil is also a big market, NRT-GRU being the primary one. YYZ and JFK lie exactly on the great circle route between the two. YUL is only 2 miles off. YVR isn't that far off (~ 40 NM) but nonetheless, it shows that YVR doesn't have a location edge when it comes to the largest markets from East Asia to South America, and the proof is in the pudding.

This doesn't mean YVR will never have a flight to South America. It just means it will be an uphill battle to secure a route. It probably won't be a foreign carrier. These types of 5th freedom routes are notoriously difficult to make money on. In my opinion, YVR's best bet is AC to BOG. I think it could happen. With 787-10s and XLR's joining the fleet, we'll find out soon enough how important YVR-South America is to AC.

Geographically, you are right in that air routes on MU (shanghai) or Hong Kong, even Beijing are closer to Brazil going through the Persian Gulf/Southern Europe. But flights more out of Norhteast Asia make more sense via Vancouver, especially to more westerly cities, BOG, sure, but also Lima and Santiago. anyway, you can play around and test out future routes on 2 links >

*try it out!! It's constructive fun !!
https://www.flightconnections.com/flights-from-hnd-to-gru

https://www.airmilescalculator.com/distance3/hnd-to-yvr-gru/
https://www.airmilescalculator.com/distance3/hnd-to-dxb-gru/
* Even stopping at DXB on to GRU, the connection via YVR is shorter by about 1000 miles / approx 1500 km. We have the location, or at least one of them, for being a well-placed Asia><South America connector.

Heading over the Atlantic stopping at DXB,over the pacific via YVR - the flight path of which goes over Houston and Dallas - both major connectors for South America.
Don't say YVR can't make it work.

[Johnny Aussie]

https://www.yvr.ca/-/media/yvr/documents...ated/2025_routesbrochure_jan_english.pdf

Needs a bit of updating (this was from Dec last year) but an excellent graphic nonetheless.

Certainly shows the seasonality of different regions.

Also missing China Eastern, China Southern, HongKong Airlines and T’way plus Sun Country.

I’m sure this will be updated soon!

[RedArbutus]

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

https://www.yvr.ca/-/media/yvr/documents...ated/2025_routesbrochure_jan_english.pdf

Needs a bit of updating (this was from Dec last year) but an excellent graphic nonetheless.

Certainly shows the seasonality of different regions.

Also missing China Eastern, China Southern, HongKong Airlines and T’way plus Sun Country.

I’m sure this will be updated soon!

Here's a question. How do they calculate flights per week? Ixtapa/Zihua is listed as 0/wk in the summer and 1/wk in the winter, and yet it says both AC and WS provide service.