Canadian Federal Election

[MonctonRad]

Current CBC Poll Tracker (27/03/2025)

LPC - 40.2%, 187 seats (majority government)
CPC - 37.3%, 127 seats
BLQ - 6.3%, 23 seats
NDP - 9.7%. 4 seats
GRN - 3,2%, 2 seats
PPC - 2.3%, 0 seats

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by JakeLRS

Poilievre announces he’ll add a $5000 top-up to TFSA on Canadian investments.

Huge for middle class people, like myself, who put are fortunate to put a good sum into a TFSA.

It's not huge. It saves maybe a hundred bucks in taxes for those already very well off. Doubt even 10% of us have maxxed out TFSAs. (edit it's actually 5% of TFSA holders who are about half the adult population who have TFSA's above $100k (current lifetime limit is $102k))

Copying Trump's platform of tax cuts for everyone and unspecified cuts to pay for it. The Senior tax cut combined with freezing OAS etc age at 65 is almost disqualifying if your reason for voting Conservative was fiscal responsibility. Almost certainly Carney will be more responsible with the budget and "print" less money if that's your bogeyman.

[Marty_Mcfly]

^ The TFSA top up is huge honestly.

Something I'll be keeping an eye on over the next few days, we have 2 polls now showing a dramatic tightening in the race in Atlantic Canada; EKOS (both their 3 and 5 day roll) and now this morning's Mainstreet rolling poll. Carney didn't really have a great start to his campaign in Atlantic Canada, so it's worth keeping an eye on.

We're talking about 2.5 data sets here with small sample sizes and large margins of error, and 1.5 of them being frickin EKOS of all places, but it's something I'll keep an eye on over the coming week or so.

A tightening in ATL that isn't replicated anywhere else though does not really impact the rest of the race, however if the CPC are to come back and win the election they need to make gains over here. The Liberals would just be content to keep what they have.

[missing_middle]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

^ The TFSA top up is huge honestly.

Something I'll be keeping an eye on over the next few days, we have 2 polls now showing a dramatic tightening in the race in Atlantic Canada; EKOS (both their 3 and 5 day roll) and now this morning's Mainstreet rolling poll. Carney didn't really have a great start to his campaign in Atlantic Canada, so it's worth keeping an eye on.

We're talking about 2.5 data sets here with small sample sizes and large margins of error, and 1.5 of them being frickin EKOS of all places, but it's something I'll keep an eye on over the coming week or so.

A tightening in ATL that isn't replicated anywhere else though does not really impact the rest of the race, however if the CPC are to come back and win the election they need to make gains over here. The Liberals would just be content to keep what they have.

That EKOS poll is just weird. Liberals at 50% but Atlantic Canada is more competitive and BQ gets demolished.

Hard to believe.

[LuluBobo]

The NDP could be in an interesting spot next federal election. Both Alberta and Saskatchewan could be voting in NDP governments, so a fully Orange prairie might be enough to push the federal NDP into 30+ seat range.

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by LuluBobo

The NDP could be in an interesting spot next federal election. Both Alberta and Saskatchewan could be voting in NDP governments, so a fully Orange prairie might be enough to push the federal NDP into 30+ seat range.

Huh? Polling right now has the NDP collapsing into single-digit levels of support and like 5-7 seats.

[LuluBobo]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

Huh? Polling right now has the NDP collapsing into single-digit levels of support and like 5-7 seats.

That's for this election.

Next election, without Singh, and with Nenshi and Beck as premiers, will present a whole new NDP.

Especially after ~14 years of Liberal leadership, the ABC vote will be unlikely to back a returning centrist.

[FrankieFlowerpot]

Nice to see PP trusts Mark Carney with his money

Poilievre’s most recent financial disclosure to the ethics commissioner’s office on June 23, 2024 lists ownership of six exchange traded funds, or ETFs.

Earlier this week, Conservative Party spokesman Sam Lilly told CBC News that Poilievre had sold his funds with international assets and bought Canadian assets.

According to a list provided by the Conservative Party, Poilievre provided an update of his assets to the ethics commissioner’s office. One of those is (VCE) Vanguard FTSE Canada Index ETF, an index fund invested in the Canadian economy.

One of the top assets in the VCE index fund? Brookfield Corp., which includes Carney’s old investment firm.

Poilievre also holds $8,124.61 worth of bitcoin (value as Monday).

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by LuluBobo

That's for this election.

Next election, without Singh, and with Nenshi and Beck as premiers, will present a whole new NDP.

Especially after ~14 years of Liberal leadership, the ABC vote will be unlikely to back a returning centrist.

Assuming your provincial predictions come to pass it's not assure, or even likely looking historically that that equates to a subsequent federal bump.

But regardless facing an extinction level election it seems like peak cope to think in 2029 there will be some surge.

[Marshsparrow]

If Canada is so broken and people have no money and our paychecks are garbage - how am I supposed to find another $5K to contribute to my TFSA?

Sounds like another move for the rich.

[BlackDog204]

Abacus just released their poll results. Now every single polling company has the Liberals in the lead. The previous Abacus poll last week had the Conservatives in a 3 point lead.

[Base]

Lots of interesting takeaways for me in that visual.

* Liberals look pretty dominant in Quebec. That's going to make the difference for them in my opinion in a tight race. The question will be does Carney's struggle with speaking French affect that at all? So far it doesn't appear it has.

* PPC while low support, I am still surprised that irrelevant party still has the support it has.

* CPC being down 4% to Libs in Ontario probably needs to be flipped to a 4% lead at least for them to gain power nationally.

* NDP looks like it is close to the bottom of what you might expect. Can they wrestle back any support to get closer to the mid/upper teens nationally? I have my doubts.

[BlackDog204]

Among those who have recently switched from another party to voting Liberal

Top two reasons for their switch:

New leader - Carney: 56%
Trump's stance towards Canada: 51%
Best shot at beating Conservatives: 30%
Trudeau leaving: 20%
Changed mind about Poilievre (CPC Voters): 14%
Changed mind about Singh (NDP Voters): 3%

Angus Reid / March 24, 2025 / n=2400 / Online

[CanSpice]

A riding to watch out in BC is Abbotsford-South Langley. Former BC Liberal MLA Mike de Jong was seeking the nomination to be the Conservative candidate, but despite being elected as a school board trustee, then MLA eight times, and being Minister of Forests, Minister of Labour and Citizens' Services, Attorney General, Minister of Public Safety and Solicitor General, Minister of Health, and Minister of Finance, the Conservative Party declined his nomination saying he was "unqualified".

Instead the Conservative Party selected Sukhman Singh Gill, a local farmer.

Mike de Jong is now running as an Independent in the riding.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Base

* Liberals look pretty dominant in Quebec. That's going to make the difference for them in my opinion in a tight race. The question will be does Carney's struggle with speaking French affect that at all? So far it doesn't appear it has.

I would imagine a strong Quebec presence in a majority federal Liberal government would mean a strong Quebec representation in cabinet, including some major portfolios. This should help negate the effect of Carneys quasi-unilingualism.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by CanSpice

A riding to watch out in BC is Abbotsford-South Langley. Former BC Liberal MLA Mike de Jong was seeking the nomination to be the Conservative candidate, but despite being elected as a school board trustee, then MLA eight times, and being Minister of Forests, Minister of Labour and Citizens' Services, Attorney General, Minister of Public Safety and Solicitor General, Minister of Health, and Minister of Finance, the Conservative Party declined his nomination saying he was "unqualified".

Instead the Conservative Party selected Sukhman Singh Gill, a local farmer.

Mike de Jong is now running as an Independent in the riding.

Stupid. de Jong should be running for the Liberals. What was PP's problem with him? Was he considered too woke or something???

[Marshsparrow]

There seems to be a large movement to counter vote splitting where a large # of Conservatives won... this probably further explains the NDP collapse and I highly doubt these voters will return and will be very determined to vote.

[CanSpice]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Stupid. de Jong should be running for the Liberals. What was PP's problem with him? Was he considered too woke or something???

Don't know, but it's a pretty stupid move on the Conservatives' part. 338 projection (yes yes we all know riding-specific views on 338 aren't really that great) has the riding 48% Cons, 40% Libs, so de Jong coming in and taking some of those votes from either party makes it a real three-horse race. A damp shirt could probably win as a Conservative in that riding anyhow (I doubt the Liberals would actually get 40% of the vote) but with de Jong as an independent...? Who knows!

[BlackDog204]

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by JakeLRS

Poilievre announces he’ll add a $5000 top-up to TFSA on Canadian investments.

Huge for middle class people, like myself, who put are fortunate to put a good sum into a TFSA.

I am increasingly disappointed in both parties. At what point do Canadians stop being impressed by governments throwing our own money (debt more like it) at us? If we had the money, perhaps OK, but we don't. They are just making a bad situation worse, imo.