Canadian Federal Election

[travis3000]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Yes 39%-39% and the Libs are certain to win decisively perhaps even a majority. My point is even if the NDP vote stays with the Libs and possibly even if the Bloc vote stays with the Libs the Conservatives can still win if they get back the English centrist voters they had 2 months ago. It is certainly possible even if not probable.

I agree. Many Liberal fanboys are getting a wee bit too confident. Still 34 days to go in the campaign. Lots to unfold! Carney has surged fast because he is known to be very accomplished and smart. People are concerned about the Trump threat and are looking for competent government.

Carney does have a house of glass IMO. He needs to prove to his new voter base that he can make it through a campaign successfully. PP knows 35% of the voting public will vote CPC regardless of whether he spends the entire campaign railing on about Trudeau, WEF, globalists, or whatever. Vast majority of his voting block is locked in through hell or high water.

Carney looks to be sitting 5-6 points ahead of PP in the current polling. But it wouldn't take much for the numbers to tighten, or even see PP back in the lead. Risk wise, Carney has more. He also has more reward though. PP is locked in at 36-39%. He won't be going anywhere from that. Carney however can go to 45%, he can also go down to 33-34 which would give PP a minority.

Only an idiot would call this race already. I've made it well known I'm hoping for a Carney government. I feel it would be the best for the country right now. I also do not like Poilievre at all. The guy annoys me almost as much as Danielle Smith and Andrew Scheer. However, I refuse to spend the election with red coloured glasses on. It's important to stay rooted in reality as much as possible.

[MonctonRad]

Carney apologizes to Montreal massacre survivor running for Liberals after getting name and school wrong
Liberal leader misspeaks twice when talking about 1989 murder of 14 Montreal women
Verity Stevenson · CBC News · Posted: Mar 25, 2025 7:43 PM ADT | Last Updated: 3 hours ago
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/carney-apologizes-montreal-massacre-survivor-1.7493167

Oh dear.........

I'm glad he apologized. The Liberal candidate didn't mind that he made a minor slip regarding her name, but the Quebecois may be less forgiving when he mentioned the massacre happened at Concordia (English) rather than Ecole Polytechnique (French)

He might be able to get away with this once or twice, but, he will have to be very careful to avoid such mistakes in the future.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by LuluBobo

Cbc vote compass is up. Looks like the Liberals and Conservatives are very close

Found the questions incredibly loaded and focussed on culture war issues that aren’t anywhere close to the top issues of this election. It ended up recommending the party I intend to vote for, but I feel my placement on the matrix was inaccurate… both economically, and socially. I'm far closer to the NDP than the CPC, but I'm very much not down with the NDP's recent focus on identity politics. The questions about hiring visible minorities over other candidates was a ridiculous question. . .

I usually strongly recommend this tool, but this year, I’m hesitant to share it at all...

[ToxiK]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

We've seen enough already to know that he both understands and speaks French. The fact that someone who spoke French but not English could not get elected PM is likely true, but not relevant.

I use to think his knowledge of French was good enough (even if not great), but recent interviews and questions answering left me in doubts. Now with Carney avoiding a French debate, it raises even more doubts.

As for relevance, Québécois are accused of being difficult for asking decent knowledge of French in a Prime Minister while the ROC is ignoring the fact that they would never tolerate the reverse situation even more vehemently than Québécois. I am denouncing the double standards.

[ToxiK]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Carney apologizes to Montreal massacre survivor running for Liberals after getting name and school wrong
Liberal leader misspeaks twice when talking about 1989 murder of 14 Montreal women
Verity Stevenson · CBC News · Posted: Mar 25, 2025 7:43 PM ADT | Last Updated: 3 hours ago
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/carney-apologizes-montreal-massacre-survivor-1.7493167

Oh dear.........

I'm glad he apologized. The Liberal candidate didn't mind that he made a minor slip regarding her name, but the Quebecois may be less forgiving when he mentioned the massacre happened at Concordia (English) rather than Ecole Polytechnique (French)

He might be able to get away with this once or twice, but, he will have to be very careful to avoid such mistakes in the future.

Mistaking Pronovost for Provost is like mistaking Mclean with Mclennan, an easy mistake to make especially in a foreign language. However, making a mistake on the Polytechnique massacre, a key historic event in Québec, is bad. It might be a symptom of low grasp of Québec history, if not a low interest in Québec in general. Carney now has a strike against him. If he doesn't make other similar mistakes, it will be no big deal in the end. But if it happens again, and again, he may find himself out of the game.

So, benefit of the doubt for now, but he is on thin ice.

[casper]

Originally Posted by ToxiK

I use to think his knowledge of French was good enough (even if not great), but recent interviews and questions answering left me in doubts. Now with Carney avoiding a French debate, it raises even more doubts.

As for relevance, Québécois are accused of being difficult for asking decent knowledge of French in a Prime Minister while the ROC is ignoring the fact that they would never tolerate the reverse situation even more vehemently than Québécois. I am denouncing the double standards.

He is participating in one French language debate organized by the committee that is responsible for organizing debates. He is declined a second French language debate organized by a single TV station.

If he did not want to debate in French he would have declined both French debates.

[ssiguy]

I agree with Travis3000, the Tory support maybe falling but it's base foundation is rock solid which I wouldn't say for Carney and the Liberals. It wouldn't take much of a sway for the Tories to regain the lead but even if they do, the Tory base tends to be more concentrated and hence less productive.

Also, the bleeding from the Tories to the Liberals has actually been rather small. The Liberals have overwhelmingly seen their rise due to the plunge in NDP support and, to a lesser extent, the Bloc.

For myself, I am one of those once Tory voters who has now changed to Carney and I called Conservative headquarters in Ottawa to tell them that and why my sister & brother have done the same. I told them that PP can't control an industrial sized mouth piece that is Smith but his silence on the matter of her seeking foreign influence to change the outcome of the election was unconscionable.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Carney apologizes to Montreal massacre survivor running for Liberals after getting name and school wrong
Liberal leader misspeaks twice when talking about 1989 murder of 14 Montreal women
Verity Stevenson · CBC News · Posted: Mar 25, 2025 7:43 PM ADT | Last Updated: 3 hours ago
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/carney-apologizes-montreal-massacre-survivor-1.7493167

Oh dear.........

I'm glad he apologized. The Liberal candidate didn't mind that he made a minor slip regarding her name, but the Quebecois may be less forgiving when he mentioned the massacre happened at Concordia (English) rather than Ecole Polytechnique (French)

He might be able to get away with this once or twice, but, he will have to be very careful to avoid such mistakes in the future.

In fairness, there was a Concordia Massacre 3 years later.

[Gresto]

Originally Posted by ToxiK

He had a pretty strong accent, but he did manage to speak and understand English.

I had no issue with his English, and he seemed like an agreeable, intelligent chap, but he was a dreadful leader in terms of projecting strength and self-confidence. As I recall, his chin literally quivered when he was under pressure. Politics is too cutthroat for someone like him.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Trump did just make English the only official language in the United States ( presumably also including places like Puerto Rico and Samoa.

And, the protestations of nine million Quebecers won't mean much to a nation with a combined population of 375 million people.

It should be clear that Canada is the better option..........

It does seem that is getting through to many Quebecers and of course Canadians in other provinces who don't want to be American. Now is not the time to be focusing only on another type of sovereignty than Canadian sovereignty.

C'est le Canada ou c'est le 51e état.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

I think the size of the PQ majority (especially if it reaches super-majority status) will dictate the speed and timeline of the next referendum.

It'll matter in the sense of which leader represents the federalists during the referendum.

According to the latest Léger poll, the PQ only has 30% support. Sure they are leading but it wouldn't be a majority. The CAQ was at 24% and the PLQ at 19%. I just don't see the PQ winning big when Trump is president. The CAQ could have a comeback and the PLQ has had support rise recently.

Support for sovereignty is down to 32%. Not exactly trending in the direction the PQ was hoping for.

https://qc125.com/proj/2025-03-12-leger.pdf

[Gresto]

Off-topic, but let me ask this of Toronto and Ontario residents. I doubt anyone will have knowledge of this, but I remember it well: What I'm thinking of occurred during either a federal (most likely) or provincial election about 15-20 years ago. There was a relatively well-known Toronto journalist named Dale Goldhawk (formerly of CTV), who hosted 4-candidate debates, by Ontario riding, around a desk at Rogers 10, a cable channel that was put out to pasture several years ago.
During one Toronto-riding debate, there was a young, heavyset Conservative candidate who was so flustered that he was unable to answer a single question posed to him. He would shake his head embarrassedly or say, "I'm sorry...", something along those lines, when Goldhawk asked him a question. I felt terrible for the guy. Thankfully, Goldhawk and the three other candidates were extremely, commendably tactful towards this young man: instead of deriding him or drawing attention to his inability to put a sentence together, each proceeded as if all were normal, and I think eventually Goldhawk stopped addressing him entirely, which I'm sure the guy appreciated. I think this guy had a generic English name like John O'Toole.
Anyone else recall seeing this cringeworthy trainwreck, and the names of those who were involved?

[elly63]

Originally Posted by casper

He is participating in one French language debate organized by the committee that is responsible for organizing debates. He is declined a second French language debate organized by a single TV station.

If he did not want to debate in French he would have declined both French debates.

Tom Mulcair made some interesting points about the TVA debate (start at 4:25)

• Video Link

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Loco101

According to the latest Léger poll, the PQ only has 30% support. Sure they are leading but it wouldn't be a majority. The CAQ was at 24% and the PLQ at 19%. I just don't see the PQ winning big when Trump is president. The CAQ could have a comeback and the PLQ has had support rise recently.

Support for sovereignty is down to 32%. Not exactly trending in the direction the PQ was hoping for.

https://qc125.com/proj/2025-03-12-leger.pdf

You’re out of touch with Quebec then. The CAQ is on the way out. QS is basically dead this cycle with GND bailing. PLQ still a corpse too, no leader yet, not seeing why any potential leader would perform better than Anglade did (she was from the CAQ back when it was popular, yet she failed to do anything with the PLQ beyond their Official Opposition Mtl base. Couillard turned it toxic outside Anglo-Allo Mtl and it still is!)

I’d bet good money on a decent PQ majority in 2026, with popular vote numbers in the 30s%.

Look at how the PQ crushed all opposition in the 450 byelection last week. They’re the govt-in-waiting. High time to get rid of the CAQ and go with the available replacement.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by lio45

You’re out of touch with Quebec then. The CAQ is on the way out. QS is basically dead this cycle with GND bailing. PLQ still a corpse too, no leader yet, not seeing why any potential leader would perform better than Anglade did (she was from the CAQ back when it was popular, yet she failed to do anything with the PLQ beyond their Official Opposition Mtl base. Couillard turned it toxic outside Anglo-Allo Mtl and it still is!)

I’d bet good money on a decent PQ majority in 2026, with popular vote numbers in the 30s%.

Look at how the PQ crushed all opposition in the 450 byelection last week. They’re the govt-in-waiting. High time to get rid of the CAQ and go with the available replacement.

I'm looking at what the polls have been showing. Any party leading with only 30% isn't exactly doing well. The PQ is definitely an alternative and a fairly left-wing one which differs from the CAQ so there's definitely that.

I'm not going to make a prediction at this point because of what we're seeing at the federal level where an incumbent party who almost everyone said was finished is leading again.

[Loco101]

Most recent Léger poll:

https://leger360.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Leger-CAN_voting_intentions_March_24th-FINAL.pdf


LPC: 44%

CPC: 38%

NDP: 6%

BQ: 5%

GPC: 3%

PPC: 3%

Other: 1%

-----------------------------

The LPC is leading everywhere except the Prairie provinces. The Bloc is at only 23% in Quebec


-----------------------------

Leader Who Would Make the Best Prime Minister


Carney: 39%

Poilievre: 28%

Singh: 5%

May: 3%

Bernier: 2%

Someone else: 2%

None: 7%

Don't know: 14%

Refuse: 1%


-----------------------------

[Tvisforme]

Originally Posted by Gresto

Egads, I didn't know it was physically possible to fit so much asshole and douche into such a small area without the space-time continuum bursting apart in disgusted rebellion.

And those pics with O'Leary, Smith, and Dump just radiate smarmy plutocratic slime schmoozing with a sycophant who cheerfully does its bidding.

SSP needs a "post of the day" button...

[Djeffery]

Originally Posted by travis3000

PP knows 35% of the voting public will vote CPC regardless of whether he spends the entire campaign railing on about Trudeau, WEF, globalists, or whatever.

And yet, I bet he wastes a lot of his time in the next 33 days doing just that.

[missing_middle]

Carney is the dream opponent for the NDP yet they are ineffective:


Carney's green funds at Brookfield used Bermuda tax haven to attract investors
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/carney-brookfield-bermuda-tax-havens-1.7493419

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by missing_middle

Carney is the dream opponent for the NDP yet they are ineffective:


Carney's green funds at Brookfield used Bermuda tax haven to attract investors
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/carney-brookfield-bermuda-tax-havens-1.7493419

Carney's job at Brookfield was to look after his clients assets. He was simply fulfilling his fiduciary duties. I don't know how you can attack him for that. People do that all the time.

In medicine, we often do things that we may feel morally uncomfortable about, but, since it is in our patient's best interests, we do it anyway.

There is no difference.