Canadian Federal Election

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

The issue for the Tories is not so much the numbers but rather how they are distributed. He is still riding high on the Prairies but that doesn't come close to his troubles in Ontario, Vancouver, Winnipeg, AC, and Quebec. Liberal votes tend to be far more productive. Remember, O'Toole got more votes than Trudeau did but still ended up losing the election. Also Carney is making some solid gains in Edmonton and Calgary. In Alberta there is a HUGE social difference between Edm/Cal and every place outside of them.

As for the NDP, they are about to get a disaster of an outcome. At this point they are only ahead in 1 riding in BC, could lose the 3 seats they have in Ontario and be wiped out in AC. The NDP really are looking at a 5 seat scenario while just a few months ago they had a shot at official opposition and, according to some polls, were ahead of the Liberals. They had the opportunity to bring down the gov't several times but choose not to and now are paying dearly for their lack of vision. But hey, isn't the demise of a Party worth it when your leader gets his pension in exchange?

Yes 39%-39% and the Libs are certain to win decisively perhaps even a majority. My point is even if the NDP vote stays with the Libs and possibly even if the Bloc vote stays with the Libs the Conservatives can still win if they get back the English centrist voters they had 2 months ago. It is certainly possible even if not probable.