Canadian Federal Election

[ssiguy]

No matter which Liberal leader takes the helm, with Singh now saying he will prop up the gov't once again, we may still be looking at a fall election. Any Liberal leader is hence going to be trying to maintain power during a time of economic collapse, soaring inflation, and skyrocketing unemployment.

If Canada brings in it's own tariffs, then the price of goods is going to soar as it will in the US. Added to this, the dollar will plunge meaning cutting rates further to help prop-up the real estate sector is a no-go. In fact they may have to start rising again in a nation with astronomical household debt. Then there will be hundreds of thousands being laid off and especially in our economic centre of Ontario resulting in collapsing gov't revenue amid soaring prices.

An oil embargo would hit the US very hard and immediately BUT it could also turn out to be even worse for Ontario. This is, once again, due to poor planning on Canada's part by focusing it's trade on a north/south axis. Ontario gets almost all it's oil, diesel, and jet fuel from the US. It comes from Alberta but the pipeline heads south into the US at Manitoba and then makes it way to Sarnia via pipelines. A shut off of oil to the US would crush the Ontario economy and with Trump demanding the auto makers and suppliers move back to the US, Ontario could collapse. It would take quite a while for rail to make up the difference and would be a logistical nightmare and cause the price of oil, and hence everything else, to soar but the immediate effect would be a basic shut-down of the Ontario economy.

Make no bones about it, Trump can bring our economy to it's knees and bring us to an economic and financial crisis we haven't seen since the Dirty 30s. Ottawa must be prepared to go completely nuclear and has to make it very clear to Trump that NATO and especially NORAD are on the table.

[theman23]

CBC: Freeland promises to cut cabinet and end PMO overreach

Chrystia Freeland says that if she becomes the next Liberal leader and prime minister, she will reduce the federal cabinet and the number of staff in the Prime Minister's Office by half.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/freeland-pledges-cut-cabinet-pmo-1.7444921

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

They'll have to fight a wall of provincial bureaucrats, unions and special interest groups who have profited mightily from these inter provincial barriers, and they'll defend the status quo to their death.

Lake Meech is still the poster child for being done in by petty provincial politics.

Populism 101: Who cares what the bureaucrats think. The people would overwhelmingly support this I'm sure.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Populism 101: Who cares what the bureaucrats think. The people would overwhelmingly support this I'm sure.

If populism really mattered, stuff like the Rogers - Shaw merger wouldn't have happened. The special interests have the ear of the government, not the public.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by theman23

CBC: Freeland promises to cut cabinet and end PMO overreach



https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/freeland-pledges-cut-cabinet-pmo-1.7444921

Good, practical idea, but only a start - the whole civil service needs a close look and adjudstments.

[trueviking]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

No matter which Liberal leader takes the helm, with Singh now saying he will prop up the gov't once again, we may still be looking at a fall election. Any Liberal leader is hence going to be trying to maintain power during a time of economic collapse, soaring inflation, and skyrocketing unemployment.

The opposite. Hold an election before it all happens. If I was Carney, I would call an election as soon as House is back. Don't even let them non-confidence you. You have two months to campaign before the campaign even starts. You have the spotlight. Ride that momentum directly into an election that is all about the coming doom. Sell yourself as the answer to the existential threat. Let Millhouse talk about the Carbon tax and Trudeau.

Millhouse is going to regret spending the last three years copying the Trump playbook....slogans on clothing, insulting nicknames and simple populist policies wont serve him well when the country is burning to the ground. People will want a mature and steady hand at the wheel....they will be looking for a grown-up to lead....not someone who appears to be part of the trump clown show.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

No matter which Liberal leader takes the helm, with Singh now saying he will prop up the gov't once again, we may still be looking at a fall election. Any Liberal leader is hence going to be trying to maintain power during a time of economic collapse, soaring inflation, and skyrocketing unemployment.

He said he'd potentially prop them up long enough to pass emergency legislation. He can still vote to bring down the government once that's passed, which is what he's indicated as of yesterday that he still plans to do.

I kind of like this for Singh though, he'd actually be able to campaign on being the ones who got the emergency package over the line.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

He said he'd potentially prop them up long enough to pass emergency legislation. He can still vote to bring down the government once that's passed, which is what he's indicated as of yesterday that he still plans to do.

I kind of like this for Singh though, he'd actually be able to campaign on being the ones who got the emergency package over the line.

Singh didn't mention it, but would he not be obliged to support the Throne Speech before the government could present any legislation?

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

If populism really mattered, stuff like the Rogers - Shaw merger wouldn't have happened. The special interests have the ear of the government, not the public.

Are we pretending groups like the BC Wine Growers have the same power at Rogers?

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Singh didn't mention it, but would he not be obliged to support the Throne Speech before the government could present any legislation?

If the government is getting nervous to the point of needing an emergency response to incoming tariffs then the house would need to be called back to pass this ASAP. There is no waiting for the end of March.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

If the government is getting nervous to the point of needing an emergency response to incoming tariffs then the house would need to be called back to pass this ASAP. There is no waiting for the end of March.

But since Parliament is prorogued, a Speech from the Throne is required upon return, no?

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

He said he'd potentially prop them up long enough to pass emergency legislation. He can still vote to bring down the government once that's passed, which is what he's indicated as of yesterday that he still plans to do.

I kind of like this for Singh though, he'd actually be able to campaign on being the ones who got the emergency package over the line.

Or maybe he is the exact opposite of the caricature and realizes we need to get this passed and can't wait until after the election when Polievre's answer to unemployment is probably tax cuts.

[CanSpice]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

But since Parliament is prorogued, a Speech from the Throne is required upon return, no?

Yes, the opening of a session is marked by the reading of the Speech from the Throne.

[SpongeG]

I saw some guy on threads the other day tell everyone to vote for PP in the March election. Are people that dumb? lol

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

But since Parliament is prorogued, a Speech from the Throne is required upon return, no?

Yes, but no need for a long one. In 1988 Mulroney recalled parliament after the election just to pass free trade and then prorogued again.

But this would require Trudeau to have a plan and to negotiate said plan with the opposition, so seems unlikely.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by trueviking

The opposite. Hold an election before it all happens. If I was Carney, I would call an election as soon as House is back. Don't even let them non-confidence you. You have two months to campaign before the campaign even starts. You have the spotlight. Ride that momentum directly into an election that is all about the coming doom. Sell yourself as the answer to the existential threat. Let Millhouse talk about the Carbon tax and Trudeau.

Millhouse is going to regret spending the last three years copying the Trump playbook....slogans on clothing, insulting nicknames and simple populist policies wont serve him well when the country is burning to the ground. People will want a mature and steady hand at the wheel....they will be looking for a grown-up to lead....not someone who appears to be part of the trump clown show.

You may be right. He has quite a lot of momentum and enthusiasm right now, I'm just not sure it's enough to overcome lead the CPC has in the polls.
If Kamala Harris could have had a July or August election and just a two month campaign, she probably would have won, because she had momentum behind her.

There's also the risk that Trump picks a fight with China or some other country and his Canada as the 51st state nonsense becomes old news.
Personally, I think a summer election is what we'll get.

I think Singh has at least realized there is no benefit to him or his party if he triggers an election earlier than necessary if polls still indicate a CPC majority. His bet is hoping the CPC’s lead in the polls continues to erode to the point where they are no longer in majority territory.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

You may be right. He has quite a lot of momentum and enthusiasm right now, I'm just not sure it's enough to overcome lead the CPC has in the polls.
If Kamala Harris could have had a July or August election and just a two month campaign, she probably would have won, because she had momentum behind her.

There's also the risk that Trump picks a fight with China or some other country and his Canada as the 51st state nonsense becomes old news.
Personally, I think a summer election is what we'll get.

I think Singh has at least realized there is no benefit to him or his party if he triggers an election earlier than necessary if polls still indicate a CPC majority. His bet is hoping the CPC’s lead in the polls continues to erode to the point where they are no longer in majority territory.

Yes there is no momentum but so far most people just know Trudeau is gone. Some of the long standing Liberal voters are therefore back in the Liberal camp but nowhere near all the 2019 coalition. To win them over Carney will need to break from Trudeau AND provide a new plan that attracts them. Creating fear of Poilievre might also work to be fair.

If the 25% fades away and we get steel and aluminum tariffs with some counter tariffs we will probably return to a more normal election. But it's also possible a chunk of the electorate remains afraid and upends the election question. This would give Carney more of a shot.

I have a weird feeling that non-Liberals signing up in ridings where there aren't Liberal members might just give us a surprise result. Not the actual joke candidates they might put first but if they put Carney last that still gives Freeland a lot of votes. If she is at 60-40 without that she could end up winning. She seems like she could cook up a deal with NDP to last until October. She would know all their asks for example.

[MolsonExport]

Carney could also remind people that Poilievre sided with the Karen Konvoy, which for me, was a low point of his undistinguished career.

[jonny24]

Originally Posted by yaletown_fella

To call Trump more intelligent than Poilievre shows you're just an ideologue .

If Trump were intelligent he would understand tariffs will just be costs passed along to the consumer/his voting base.

I think Trump understands that perfectly. It was his base that didn't understand it. He just let them keep thinking it.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Are we pretending groups like the BC Wine Growers have the same power at Rogers?

Are we going to pretend lobby groups like the BC Wine Growers are lone wolves, and won't band together with other more powerful special interest groups and BC unions to defend the status quo?