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Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie
Thanks for your continuing updates. I find China to be the most difficult to put my finger on due to the constant changes and restrictions (unlike in Australia).
What is the current state of play with YVR-China flights? Is there an accurate breakdown by carrier and destination?
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Actually, I'm not too sure. The number 18 is being thrown around, now I'm not sure if it is 18x increase, or total 18x from each side.
Now thinking about it, if AC gets 14x weekly increase for a total of 18x, then 18x on each side make more sense.
From the leaked memo, both MU and CZ plan to increase the YYZ route to 4x weekly at the beginning of W24 season. If this is the case, then likely all will be announced by sometime next week. Even that, the lead time would be less than a month.
There are many versions of increase spreading around. For the 18x increase scenario (for a total of 24x weekly), the break down for each Chinese carrier is likely 7-4-4-3-3-3. For the total 18x weekly, then 4-4-4-2-2-2. Likely both of the 4s are already accounted for, and probably the only reasonable one to split the service into two routes is the 7x weekly scenario. For all other carrier, most likely for them is to increase the current route to the allotted frequency (splitting a 4x weekly into 2-2 or 1-3 wouldn't make sense?)
AC clearly stated that all China service will be out of YVR until they can fly through Russia. AC can increase PVG to daily as soon as the start of W24 season (when KIX ends). From the start of S25, AC still haven't reallocate the service from HKG reduction. If they once again reduce BNE to 6x like this summer, then they can add a 4x weekly route to PEK or elsewhere in China.
Technically AC still haven't allocated the 767 they bringing back to passenger service starting next Jan. For S25, AC had fully allocated all the non-767 widebodies, including a new 789 that's coming, with the assumption that TLV is not resuming. So I'm guessing if they are able to fly to TLV and/or want to give an extra plane for an additional daily flight to China, they can always use the 767 for shorter TATL routes like YYZ-MAN/EDI/DUB to free up 2 additional 787s. So it is still possible for AC to use all 18x weekly if they want to, but where will they put the extra 4x weekly? Adding YVR-CAN given that CZ is not resuming the route? Or they change their mind and add service out of YYZ, but then the 3-4x weekly from the HKG reduction can only originate from YVR...
Anyways, all of the above are just speculation. Maybe things will change and everything I said above will be wrong after the announcement as soon as next week...
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