Homicide stats in Canadian Cities

[Mr Tall Forehead]

Interesting upticks in 2021 and especially 2022 in both US and Canada. I wonder what the cause of that was?

Anyway, nice to see them both drop a little in 2023.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Mr Tall Forehead

Interesting upticks in 2021 and especially 2022 in both US and Canada. I wonder what the cause of that was?

Anyway, nice to see them both drop a little in 2023.

Everyone blames BLM and defund the police in the US but I don't know if there is evidence for that. Seems it was the total breakdown in society and shoving everyone together in houses. An unbiased study would be helpful but these kind of topcis are toxic right now.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by Acajack

About one third of the Ottawa CMA is outside the city proper's limits. This is on the high end of population share compared to Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver.

But it's not really the "near entirety". (Also, over a quarter of the CMA is actually in another province.)

The areas of Ottawa's CMA outside of the city proper have about half a million people and generally 5 murders or less per year in total.

I didn't crunch the numbers but the GTA outside of the City of Toronto's limits doesn't strike me as much less or much more violent than the city itself. I think the City of Toronto + the rest of the CMA usually comes in around 100 murders a year at least.

Not sure where that fits in relative to stats across the country. It's not outrageous but at least to me does seem a bit high(ish) by Canadian and non-US western world standards.

Though perhaps we'll need to adjust our expectations to a different standard?

To me a country like Canada should have a homicide rate per 100,000 of between 1 and 1.5. We're around double that most years of late.

(Though that's exactly where Quebec and Atlantic Canada would be if they were a country.)

The link i posted earlier (here) seperates the Quebec and Ontario portion of the Ottawa CMA.

I'm not sure why you're under that impression WRT to the GTA. GTA's homicide rate was 1.73 per 100k last year. If JuelzJones is correct , the rate within the 416 was 2.43 so clearly the suburbs are bringing the average down. The national numbers are also available on that webpage, and the GTA has come in below the national average 8 out of the last 10 years.

[Acajack]

My position on here has not been that crime in the GTA is significantly worse than in Canada overall.

As for the stats showing murders and violent crime are going down, I don’t know anyone who thinks things are going better on those fronts in Canada.

And it’s not just the fault of social media.

[ScreamingViking]

Gun violence seems to be on the increase. It certainly is in Hamilton, and the total lack of "care" for bystanders and surrounding buildings is getting scary. I fear it won't be long before someone inside a home or business is killed during daylight hours (and I'm well aware it's happened in other cities, but the rise of it in my hometown is alarming)

This is just the latest example:
https://www.thespec.com/news/crime/m...635b912b1.html

Hamilton will soon eclipse its highest-ever total for shootings as police investigate gunfire on the east Mountain that sent a man to hospital and saw bullets rip through a strip plaza.

Det. Sgt. Steve Bereziuk told reporters that police received a 911 call for shots fired in the parking lot of a plaza at the corner of Fennell Avenue East and Upper Gage Avenue just after 11:15 p.m. Saturday.

At the scene, Bereziuk said officers found a man in his 30s suffering from a gunshot wound. He was taken to hospital but has since been treated and released.

...

Several businesses in the plaza, including a Big Bee Convenience store and a tanning salon, sustained damage from the gunfire.

That included a bullet that hit the window of the Big Bee — which was closed at the time — and tore through a potato chip display inside, said Bereziuk.

There were more than 50 people in the area when the shots rang out, he added, with several people running inside to take cover.

“We’re very grateful that nobody else was hurt,” said Bereziuk, standing in the parking lot. “This could have been something much worse.”

The latest shooting marks the 51st incident of recorded gunfire in the city this year, matching the annual record that was set in 2020.

...

[JuelzJones]

Originally Posted by theman23

The link i posted earlier (here) seperates the Quebec and Ontario portion of the Ottawa CMA.

I'm not sure why you're under that impression WRT to the GTA. GTA's homicide rate was 1.73 per 100k last year. If JuelzJones is correct , the rate within the 416 was 2.43 so clearly the suburbs are bringing the average down. The national numbers are also available on that webpage, and the GTA has come in below the national average 8 out of the last 10 years.

2018-2020 based on a population of 2.8 million

2021-2022 based on a population of 2.9 million

2023-2024 based on 3 million

[Acajack]

This site, which tracks homicides in Canada, has annualized the 2024 numbers into a rate over 12 months (if things continue at the same pace).

They say Toronto will end up at 3.06 per 100,000.

https://x.com/homicide_canada/status...73417282728406

[theman23]

Originally Posted by Acajack

My position on here has not been that crime in the GTA is significantly worse than in Canada overall.

As for the stats showing murders and violent crime are going down, I don’t know anyone who thinks things are going better on those fronts in Canada.

And it’s not just the fault of social media.

You responded to a post about the highest murder rates in the country being northern gateway cities by pointing out that the exception is Toronto. How else would that be interpreted?

I’ve never argued that Toronto is safer now than it was 10 years ago. It’s definitely worse. But it’s also ridiculous and out of touch to think that single women are afraid to ride the TTC anymore due to fear of crime. The city is still very safe.

Originally Posted by Acajack

QUOTE=Acajack;10289458]This site, which tracks homicides in Canada, has annualized the 2024 numbers into a rate over 12 months (if things continue at the same pace).

They say Toronto will end up at 3.06 per 100,000.

https://x.com/homicide_canada/status...73417282728406

I feel like we’re going in circles. I made the exact same point to you a month ago in reference to the exact same website. They’re using an up to date numerator with an out of date denominator, which doesn’t make any sense in a rapidly growing city. The census population they’re using as a denominator is from 2021, which was likely an undercount back then and is wholly out of date by now. Toronto’s population is probably 15% larger now than the census number, which drops the rate to 2.6. OTOH, statcan numbers are based on contemporary estimates of population sizes and provide more accurate rates.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Acajack

My position on here has not been that crime in the GTA is significantly worse than in Canada overall.

As for the stats showing murders and violent crime are going down, I don’t know anyone who thinks things are going better on those fronts in Canada.

And it’s not just the fault of social media.

How does one explain the contradiction?

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by Acajack

My position on here has not been that crime in the GTA is significantly worse than in Canada overall.

As for the stats showing murders and violent crime are going down, I don’t know anyone who thinks things are going better on those fronts in Canada.

And it’s not just the fault of social media.

You also live in Ottawa-Gatineau, which (the Ottawa side at least) has objectively seen a rise in homicides in recent years. There are a number of places that have seen localised increases in murders or other violent crime (and conversely, others that have seen drops) - though, Toronto isn't one of them.

I'd also imagine that the average citizen doesn't have much insight into whether murder rates are on the rise or not - they're too rare of an occurrence to have a personal affect on most people; and murders can be on the downswing while much more visible petty crimes or social disorder are on the rise.

Also, as mentioned in theman's post above, most people seem to have trouble understanding that even if the numerator rises, so too can the denominator. Per capita rates are in general a common source of confusion.

[Gresto]

Originally Posted by Acajack

This site, which tracks homicides in Canada, has annualized the 2024 numbers into a rate over 12 months (if things continue at the same pace).

They say Toronto will end up at 3.06 per 100,000.

https://x.com/homicide_canada/status...73417282728406

Toronto is having a bad year. It is probably just an aberration.

[kja384]

Lots of talk about immigrants so I'll leave this here

Number, percentage and rate of persons accused of homicide, by racialized identity group, gender and region

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1...101%2C20220101


Also i'll just leave the most detailed report on policing in Canadian history (which the mainstream media did not touch whatsoever) here as well.

Page 46 and 100 are the main ones. Just take a look at Vancouver, the numbers are insane.
Not so fun fact, the city of Surrey has the largest Black (highly privileged, self selected immigrants) and Indigenous (historically oppressed, equivalent to American Black people) population in BC, yet Black people have a higher arrest rate.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by kja384

Lots of talk about immigrants so I'll leave this here

Number, percentage and rate of persons accused of homicide, by racialized identity group, gender and region

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1...101%2C20220101


Also i'll just leave the most detailed report on policing in Canadian history (which the mainstream media did not touch whatsoever) here as well.

Page 46 and 100 are the main ones. Just take a look at Vancouver, the numbers are insane.
Not so fun fact, the city of Surrey has the largest Black (highly privileged, self selected immigrants) and Indigenous (historically oppressed, equivalent to American Black people) population in BC, yet Black people have a higher arrest rate.

Aren't you forgetting about the refugee population? Is your claim/read of the statistics that priveledged blacks have a higher murder rate than Indigenous Canadians? That seems dubious. (I don't see Indigenous broken out in your link actually) Seems more likely the X% black refugee population is so over-represeneted it skews what is still a small population in Surrey.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Aren't you forgetting about the refugee population? Is your claim/read of the statistics that priveledged blacks have a higher murder rate than Indigenous Canadians? That seems dubious. (I don't see Indigenous broken out in your link actually) Seems more likely the X% black refugee population is so over-represeneted it skews what is still a small population in Surrey.

"The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour."

I'm guessing aboriginal data is part of "Rest of the Population"

The data does seem to refute the claim that immigration is leading to a surge in homicides as some have claimed. By and large the rate is the same.


Source: Statcan

[kja384]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Aren't you forgetting about the refugee population? Is your claim/read of the statistics that priveledged blacks have a higher murder rate than Indigenous Canadians? That seems dubious. (I don't see Indigenous broken out in your link actually) Seems more likely the X% black refugee population is so over-represeneted it skews what is still a small population in Surrey.

So the only black people that commit crimes are refugees? You realize in Ontario 1 in 15 black men aged 18-34 has done jail time, right? And that includes foreign-born, imagine how insane the crime rates for Canadian born black men really is.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by kja384

So the only black people that commit crimes are refugees? You realize in Ontario 1 in 15 black men aged 18-34 has done jail time, right? And that includes foreign-born, imagine how insane the crime rates for Canadian born black men really is.

Well you mentioed that there are highly selective immigrant Black populations in Surrey but still there is a high level of crime. I find this doubtful. Well at least lower than immigrants who arrived via less selective means. The extremely small non immigrant black population also has high rates but statistically that is swamped by Haitans, Carribean and African immigrants and their children who have arrived in the last 50 years.

The article doesn't really tell us much about the groups in prison. Just 1 in 15 black Canadians "experience incarceration" (as if it falls from the sky). It's from 2010 so there would be a lot of first and second generation immigrants but was a much much smaller population than exists now.

If you exclude Indigenous Canadians the data seems to suggest immigration is a factor in murder rates but we don't know conclusively from this data.

I guess the question is what is your hypothesis that black Canadians are more likely to commit homicide regardless of background and socio-economic status?

[kja384]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Well you mentioed that there are highly selective immigrant Black populations in Surrey but still there is a high level of crime. I find this doubtful. Well at least lower than immigrants who arrived via less selective means. The extremely small non immigrant black population also has high rates but statistically that is swamped by Haitans, Carribean and African immigrants and their children who have arrived in the last 50 years.

The article doesn't really tell us much about the groups in prison. Just 1 in 15 black Canadians "experience incarceration" (as if it falls from the sky). It's from 2010 so there would be a lot of first and second generation immigrants but was a much much smaller population than exists now.

If you exclude Indigenous Canadians the data seems to suggest immigration is a factor in murder rates but we don't know conclusively from this data.

I guess the question is what is your hypothesis that black Canadians are more likely to commit homicide regardless of background and socio-economic status?

If you look at the racial arrest rates in the city of Vancouver and Surrey, based off socioeconomic status you would expect White people to have the lowest arrest rate, yet they don't. Oldest age distribution, highest incomes, lowest unemployment rate, lowest rate of poverty, high rates of education & household wealth, the list goes on. You can see the S/E/SE Asians have a lower arrest rate despite being worse off socioeconomically.

Imagine comparing a Canadian born Jamaican to a Filipino, the Jamaican would probably be at least 50x as likely to commit violent crime after accounting for household income.
In the USA, the disparities between Black & White people exist in 99% of income percentiles.

It's like that everywhere, you think London UK is any different?

"In 2020, Cressida Dick, Commissioner of the Metropolitan Police, stated that black people in the United Kingdom were eight times more likely to commit murder"

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by kja384

If you look at the racial arrest rates in the city of Vancouver and Surrey, based off socioeconomic status you would expect White people to have the lowest arrest rate, yet they don't. Oldest age distribution, highest incomes, lowest unemployment rate, lowest rate of poverty, high rates of education & household wealth, the list goes on. You can see the S/E/SE Asians have a lower arrest rate despite being worse off socioeconomically.

Imagine comparing a Canadian born Jamaican to a Filipino, the Jamaican would probably be at least 50x as likely to commit violent crime after accounting for household income.
In the USA, the disparities between Black & White people exist in 99% of income percentiles.

It's like that everywhere, you think London UK is any different?

"In 2020, Cressida Dick, Commissioner of the Metropolitan Police, stated that black people in the United Kingdom were eight times more likely to commit murder"

I don't see any of those links proving economic status is irrelevant or looking at as you say 99% of income levels. Nigerians in the United States have very high success levels and I thought also very low criminiality.

A U of Chicago student was recently allowed to claim it's becaues of low IQ. Netted them a $100 million anonymous donation. Big contrast with U Penn.

[Acajack]

Gatineau 3