Atlantic Canadian Politics Thread

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by sailor734

I'm really not a fan of third party ads during an election campaign. To me it's a slippery slope to US style PAC's and a flood of often misleading and slanted "spin". I'd much prefer to hear directly from the candidates about their proposals/policies and why they are the way forward.

I would agree however that CBC exhibits a distinct left/progressive bias in what they choose to cover and the way things are worded.

Spending limits are pretty low. This ain't citizens united.

Estimated $17,600 province-wide or $1,760 per single district

I'm not sure how far 1700 goes far on TV, facebook, google, or radio station. Someone with a marketing background would have to answer that

[sailor734]

Monday update from 338Canada. Those numbers make it pretty obvious why Singh doesn't want an election. He needs all the time he can get to try and distance himself from Trudeau. Tough task to accomplish while repeatedly voting confidence in the government.

https://338canada.com/

When does a federal party lose party status? 12 seats? NDP might come close.

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by sailor734

Monday update from 338Canada. Those numbers make it pretty obvious why Singh doesn't want an election. He needs all the time he can get to try and distance himself from Trudeau. Tough task to accomplish while repeatedly voting confidence in the government.

https://338canada.com/

When does a federal party lose party status? 12 seats? NDP might come close.

Yeah, no upside for Singh.

Roughly, based on vote efficiency a drop of 2% would probably put them in the range of 12 seats.

I'm surprised by the BQ. There is significant upside for them in gaining more seats from the liberals and ndp. 338 has them at over 50% of quebec seats; which probably is an underestimate with Trudeau's performance.

Going from 34 to 42 seats isn't insignificant, with the extra funding also in play from each vote. More butts in seats, and better funding.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by sailor734

I wonder why we are seeing virtually no polling in the NB election compared to years past? Is regional media that much more hollowed out/poorer that 4 years ago?

Yes, plus the 2020 polls weren't great at all. Forum, Mainstreet, and Ekos all dropped polls just a day or two before the election, and they all pretty much did the same thing: underestimated the Liberals and PCs to varying degrees and overestimated the Greens. In 2018, which was an odd election anyway, Forum, Mainstreet, and Nanos did better, again underestimating Liberals and PCs, and mildly overestimating PA.

Good rule of thumb to me would be push down the third parties in polls, and add a couple points to the reds and blues... but I don't think uniform swing will matter too much, with the PA mostly dead and drifting to the center, Liberal enthusiasm up in Anglo seats from the 2020 nadir, Trudeau (unfairly) serving as an albatross around Holt's neck, and Greens simultaneously recruiting well but not really having a 'moment'.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Yes, plus the 2020 polls weren't great at all. Forum, Mainstreet, and Ekos all dropped polls just a day or two before the election, and they all pretty much did the same thing: underestimated the Liberals and PCs to varying degrees and overestimated the Greens. In 2018, which was an odd election anyway, Forum, Mainstreet, and Nanos did better, again underestimating Liberals and PCs, and mildly overestimating PA.

Good rule of thumb to me would be push down the third parties in polls, and add a couple points to the reds and blues... but I don't think uniform swing will matter too much, with the PA mostly dead and drifting to the center, Liberal enthusiasm up in Anglo seats from the 2020 nadir, Trudeau (unfairly) serving as an albatross around Holt's neck, and Greens simultaneously recruiting well but not really having a 'moment'.

Do you think the Trudeau-Holt connection the PC's are pushing really works that well? I guess in a race this close you don't have to move all that many votes. I think the Holt Liberals are taking it seriously though. I'm seeing advertising with "Team Holt" featured prominently and either little or no use at all of the work "Liberal".....(sometimes just a small "L" logo)

I've talked to people in SJ that are at least as concerned about a Liberal government with the majority of caucus from the north and east
bringing a return to Graham/Gallant style graft and pork barrel spending.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by sailor734

Do you think the Trudeau-Holt connection the PC's are pushing really works that well? I guess in a race this close you don't have to move all that many votes. I think the Holt Liberals are taking it seriously though. I'm seeing advertising with "Team Holt" featured prominently and either little or no use at all of the work "Liberal".....(sometimes just a small "L" logo)

I've talked to people in SJ that are at least as concerned about a Liberal government with the majority of caucus from the north and east
bringing a return to Graham/Gallant style graft and pork barrel spending.

Won't know until later, but I assume it's not a bad idea. The Grit brand is... not popular. The NB (and NS/PEI/NL) Liberals are indeed formally associated with the federal Liberals. Anyone who looks it up will see on Wikipedia "while its leader acts only in the provincial capacity, the party executive organizes for both provincial and federal election campaigns.."

I don't think the median undecided voter is concerned (or even aware) about caucus composition of course. But "Holt = Liberal = Trudeau" is simple and direct messaging that would theoretically play well in 30+ ridings here. The inverse would probably HELP Higgs if the Liberals were dumb enough to try it (they aren't). I presume she keeps a narrow focus on replacing Higgs and local issues.

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Won't know until later, but I assume it's not a bad idea. The Grit brand is... not popular. The NB (and NS/PEI/NL) Liberals are indeed formally associated with the federal Liberals. Anyone who looks it up will see on Wikipedia "while its leader acts only in the provincial capacity, the party executive organizes for both provincial and federal election campaigns.."

I don't think the median undecided voter is concerned (or even aware) about caucus composition of course. But "Holt = Liberal = Trudeau" is simple and direct messaging that would theoretically play well in 30+ ridings here. The inverse would probably HELP Higgs if the Liberals were dumb enough to try it (they aren't). I presume she keeps a narrow focus on replacing Higgs and local issues.

The "Holt = Liberal = Trudeau" was probably focused grouped and a/b tested.

Campaign coordinator is really just another term for marketing manager.

The only money left on the table for the left wing is the younger (18-2x) crowd that undervotes by a huge measure. It will be interesting if there are any significant initiatives in play by the liberals to mobilize this set. This would have the ability to move a seat or two.

In addition could save embarrassment of Holt losing her own seat.

I wouldn't see the PC making any inroads here; outside of rural Anglo areas that they pretty much already own.

[sailor734]

Liberals just announced they would impose a 3% cap on rent increases beginning in 2025. I can't help but think that will resonate with a lot of people.

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by sailor734

Liberals just announced they would impose a 3% cap on rent increases beginning in 2025

Let’s break the rental market.

From statscan, 2022 #.
250600 households own their place in Nb
98400 rent.

Number of rentals have been increasing by 5% since 2018. # of owner households has increased less than 1% in the same period.

If capped to 3% would you consider buying a new place if the upside is also capped?

This is what happens when you rely on Acorn for your policy choices.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by TitleRequired

Let’s break the rental market.

From statscan, 2022 #.
250600 households own their place in Nb
98400 rent.

Number of rentals have been increasing by 5% since 2018. # of owner households has increased less than 1% in the same period.

If capped to 3% would you consider buying a new place if the upside is also capped?

This is what happens when you rely on Acorn for your policy choices.

Other markets with rent control have been outbuilding and outperforming us when it comes to housing so.......

.........and BTW, What does a streaming service for British TV shows have to do with with anything?

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by sailor734

Other markets with rent control have been outbuilding and outperforming us when it comes to housing so.......

.........and BTW, What does a streaming service for British TV shows have to do with with anything?

The UK approach to rental caps is it only applies to social housing, and is $cpi + 1%.

This leaves most of the housing untouched by policy. It also understands that cpi can swing widely; and by forgoing a fixed cap landlords are not left holding the bag.

I don't know what jurisdiction, ex covid mitigations, has a working cap and vibrant rental building. Examples?

Re Acorn: Didn't know they streamed.

https://acorncanada.org/locations/new-brunswick-acorn/

[sailor734]

https://acorn.tv/

NS has rent control right now (supposedly temporary) as do multiple other provinces including BC......lots of building there from what I see.

I'm not saying it's necessarily a prudent course of action, just that it will appeal strongly to many. Housing affordability is a hot button issue. Now, if they brought in an assessment increase cap of 3% people would be lining up to vote for them!

[lirette]

I haven't read much into rent caps working vs not working, will need to look more into it but one thing I do know is that it is something that continually polls well (over 65% support).

It seems to be like increasing supply has a much greater effect on "rent control" itself.

[sailor734]

New Mainstreet Research poll from Sept 17 has it 35%Libs, 32% PC, 18% undecided, 10% Green and PA at 3%. NDP not mentioned but those numbers add up to 98% so maybe 2%?

Interestingly, support for and opposition to Policy 713 seems to be pretty evenly split.

Holt has higher favourables than Higgs 46-37

For those with a TJ subscription......

https://tj.news/new-brunswick/virtua...-poll-suggests

[MonctonRad]

35 LIB - 32 PC could easily mean a weak PC win, given the inefficiency of the Liberal vote (concentrated heavily in the north and the east).

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

35 LIB - 32 PC could easily mean a weak PC win, given the inefficiency of the Liberal vote (concentrated heavily in the north and the east).

If I were the Liberals I'd worry about how many of that 18% are disgruntled PC's who, when push comes to shove and they get in the privacy of the voting booth, put their X where it's always been.

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

35 LIB - 32 PC could easily mean a weak PC win, given the inefficiency of the Liberal vote (concentrated heavily in the north and the east).

Agreed. Holt would have to be polling around 43-44% outside of the undecided to win a majority with the vote efficiency taken into consideration.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by sailor734

If I were the Liberals I'd worry about how many of that 18% are disgruntled PC's who, when push comes to shove and they get in the privacy of the voting booth, put their X where it's always been.

That pretty much describes me.

I am no fan of Higgs, but looking at the alternative, I will likely cast my vote the usual way.

[sailor734]

338Canada just updated their projection to 24 PC, 23 Lib, 2 Green.

So, how does it work again when after you appoint a Speaker the House is tied?

For some reason I think they can vote to break a tie but can't vote to bring down the government or to pass a budget......but I may well be wrong. A quick Google wasn't definitive.

I did find this but it was a Wiki article so.......

"Speaker traditionally votes only to break a tie and always in favour of the status quo."


edit.

It's interesting to see that they have moved Saint John Harbour and Portland-Simonds from "PC leaning" to "Toss up"

I can believe Harbour but I still think Dornan has an uphill battle in Portland Simonds.

[adamuptownsj]

Re: Mainstreet, it's easiest to just factor out undecideds [edit- cmon Mainstreet 18% undecided is laughable, push your participants please]. I agree there's likely 'undecided' PC voters to the right of Higgs, but I don't like to unskew.

Taking the poll at face value we get

35 + 32 + 10 + 3 = 80% decided voters

Libs 35/80 = 43.75
PCs 32/80 = 40
Greens 10/80 = 12.5
PA 3/80 = 3.75

Which sure seems like a more useful figure than those goofball numbers in the low 30s. Neither PCs or Liberals are getting below 40% this time, Liberals have popular vote edge, Greens stagnant, PA vote vanishes. At least, it fits my priors.