Federal Government & Politics II

[lio45]

So, the correct answer/order was: Sunak-Biden-Trudeau. Congrats to those who bet correctly back in late June

(For a brief window of time, after both the Toronto—St. Paul's byelection and the US Presidential debate but before the British election, all six (3!) possibilities were all on the table.)

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by lio45

So, the correct answer/order was: Sunak-Biden-Trudeau. Congrats to those who bet correctly back in June

Trudeau has to make it to January 20th 2025. Likely but far from certain.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Trudeau has to make it to January 20th 2025. Likely but far from certain.

He's currently on a family vacation in BC. I wonder if this includes a walk on the beaches of Tofino...........

[lio45]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Trudeau has to make it to January 20th 2025. Likely but far from certain.

Nah, my vision for the bet was that it’s the timing of each of these leaders announcing they’re giving up/quitting/retiring. Much more interesting, and less predictable. Especially if the metric is the announcement of throwing in the towel on politics (it wasn’t a given that Sunak would quit as Tory leader even after a defeat) rather than the more easily predictable timing of his ejection from the PM seat.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by lio45

Nah, my vision for the bet was that it’s the timing of each of these leaders announcing they’re giving up/quitting/retiring. Much more interesting, and less predictable. Especially if the metric is the announcement of throwing in the towel on politics (it wasn’t a given that Sunak would quit as Tory leader even after a defeat) rather than the more easily predictable timing of his ejection from the PM seat.

Fair. As you say after St. Pauls Trudeau seemed like he might go. Biden obviously made the ultimate sacrifice but the early election call by Sunak also had let's get this over with vibes. Expecting trudeau to do anything magnamious seems like a poor bet. (granted the best choice for his values may be to stay as no replacement seems likely to do better). I am starting to wonder if he actually changes election law and tries to wait until 2026.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Fair. As you say after St. Pauls Trudeau seemed like he might go. Biden obviously made the ultimate sacrifice but the early election call by Sunak also had let's get this over with vibes. Expecting trudeau to do anything magnamious seems like a poor bet. (granted the best choice for his values may be to stay as no replacement seems likely to do better). I am starting to wonder if he actually changes election law and tries to wait until 2026.

It isn’t being magnanimous, it is avoiding a humiliating defeat and leaving it for someone else.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by acottawa

It isn’t being magnanimous, it is avoiding a humiliating defeat and leaving it for someone else.

For Biden or Trudeau? Biden seems to pass on the potential at least 1 in 3 to win the race. Trudeau is passing on a totally poisoned chalice and actually staying could be the more honorable thing to do.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

For Biden or Trudeau? Biden seems to pass on the potential at least 1 in 3 to win the race. Trudeau is passing on a totally poisoned chalice and actually staying could be the more honorable thing to do.

Trudeau, although maybe applies to Biden as well.

[Dartguard]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Trudeau has to make it to January 20th 2025. Likely but far from certain.

Trudeau has to make it to the August Long Weekend of 2025 as that would put him in Office for more days than Harper. Beating Harper of course being the entire philosophical and moral reason for Trudeau to be P.M.

I wonder if Trudeau will be getting that Jesus at Tofino speech from the folks he is travelling with. Maybe his teenage daughter will ask him if he needs the Guff anymore.

[Djeffery]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

For Biden or Trudeau? Biden seems to pass on the potential at least 1 in 3 to win the race. Trudeau is passing on a totally poisoned chalice and actually staying could be the more honorable thing to do.

Revitalized and energized Democratic party under Harris I think has a much better chance than Biden did.

[dreambrother808]

Originally Posted by Djeffery

Revitalized and energized Democratic party under Harris I think has a much better chance than Biden did.

Yeah online right now it’s a far more enthusiastic response to Harris than I would have imagined. Trump world seems panicked. Online at least.

[dreambrother808]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Fair. As you say after St. Pauls Trudeau seemed like he might go. Biden obviously made the ultimate sacrifice but the early election call by Sunak also had let's get this over with vibes. Expecting trudeau to do anything magnamious seems like a poor bet. (granted the best choice for his values may be to stay as no replacement seems likely to do better). I am starting to wonder if he actually changes election law and tries to wait until 2026.

Trudeau seems to think it’s all going to magically turn around at some point without him actually course correcting by limiting immigration. He’s going to wait out the election call. The only hope is Jagmeet growing some balls.

[casper]

Originally Posted by dreambrother808

Yeah online right now it’s a far more enthusiastic response to Harris than I would have imagined. Trump world seems panicked. Online at least.

Obviously, she is being welcomed into her new role with enthusiasm. The convention should turn into a coronation.

Assuming the Democrats with another term and the Liberals win another term, North America is well positioned for another five years of prosperity.

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

He's currently on a family vacation in BC. I wonder if this includes a walk on the beaches of Tofino...........

Probably not today. It is a bit overcast on Vancouver Island. But there is tomorrow for him to see the light and make that decision.

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by Edmonton_Ian

About time. He said he was going to be a one-term president and had he stuck to that his legacy would have been fine. Now it's worse than Bush and Trump and that says something....

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by lio45

So, the correct answer/order was: Sunak-Biden-Trudeau. Congrats to those who bet correctly back in late June

(For a brief window of time, after both the Toronto—St. Paul's byelection and the US Presidential debate but before the British election, all six (3!) possibilities were all on the table.)

Ironic that Sunak who was arguably the most intelligent of the three and the best qualified ti be a national leader was the first to go.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Djeffery

Revitalized and energized Democratic party under Harris I think has a much better chance than Biden did.

Agreed. It's an uphill climb. But people are vastly underestimating her energy. Biden gets to run the country. She gets to campaign. And money is going to flood in now. And what a contrast. 59 year old woman of colour against an the oldest nominee in American history. And then there's all the other contrasts (and this was from 2020):

• Video Link

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Agreed. It's an uphill climb. But people are vastly underestimating her energy. Biden gets to run the country. She gets to campaign. And money is going to flood in now. And what a contrast. 59 year old woman of colour against an the oldest nominee in American history. And then there's all the other contrasts (and this was from 2020):

Nobody not already certain to vote Democrat cares about what DEI category she checks off. A lot of swing voters know that's why she was chosen as VP. A lot of sexist though partially true crap about her sleeping her way to the top. She got absolutely zero traction when she ran for president. Normally that is indicative that she isn't ready for the big leagues but lots of failed primary candidates have roared back next round so it's all about the moment.

The Tech bros are already coming out against her after claiming they were only for Trump because Biden was senile and they'd happily vote for any younger candidate. I wonder if we will see the same with a lot of voters who were only pretending to be for Trump because Biden is old when really they want his anti immigration and other policies but are embarrassed to admit it.

[Djeffery]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

She got absolutely zero traction when she ran for president. Normally that is indicative that she isn't ready for the big leagues

So did the current President. He went nowhere the 2 or 3 times he ran for President before being VP propelled him up to the top job.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Djeffery

So did the current President. He went nowhere the 2 or 3 times he ran for President before being VP propelled him up to the top job.

Even if that’s the case, Obama gave him stuff to do. Maybe she is doing important behind the scenes stuff, but it certainly looks like Biden marginalized her.

[Dartguard]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Even if that’s the case, Obama gave him stuff to do. Maybe she is doing important behind the scenes stuff, but it certainly looks like Biden marginalized her.

She is going to be blamed for the Border mess with some justification.