Chicago has the fastest growing downtown in the country--again

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by CaliNative

Maybe I was thinking of the 1970s T.V. show Jeffersons, middle class blacks and Latinos who might be moving into downtown highrises and also far southside gentrifying lakefront areas with growth. "Moving on up, to the eastside, a deluxe apartment in the sky".

well, there's almost certainly some of that going on, but your earlier post made it sound like you thought the main driver of population growth in downtown chicago over the past decade was people fleeing the violence of neighborhoods like englewood, and that's not really what's going on, for the most part.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by CaliNative

Maybe I was thinking of the 1970s T.V. show Jeffersons, middle class blacks and Latinos who might be moving into downtown highrises and also far southside gentrifying lakefront areas with growth. "Moving on up, to the eastside, a deluxe apartment in the sky". But yeah, that was New York, and I know that many who are poor are leaving the area entirely to escape gang violence and crime, not having the financial means to move downtown even if they wanted to.

Basically, the majority of the North side is people who moved to Chicago from out-of-state and their children. People from out-of-state are not that knowledgeable about the Chicago metro, and most of the people in their social networks are also not from Chicago.

So the North side is an intense cluster of transplants who behave like an immigrant enclave.

Working-class Latino immigrants and their children have been increasingly moving into black neighborhoods to the West and Southwest.

Middle and upper-class black families have been opting for the South lakefront when given the choice, but college graduates from out-of-state are also beginning to compete for those areas.






https://www.google.com/amp/s/danielk...?client=safari

[the urban politician]

The downtown area growth is definitely NOT a result of poor, huddled refugees finding shelter from the warzone. Also, the growth in the south lakefront is also not the same, it's gentrification, and in the case of the south lakefront I'm reading that it's middle class black (and other) folks buying and renting there. The poor are almost certainly moving in the opposite direction.

Many middle class blacks are also bailing for the burbs and other regions altogether.

[Crawford]

A big portion of what's missed is the change in land use. So, for example, the West Loop and South Loop (and more recently, the Loop proper) likely show a large relative increase in population over the last few decades. Meanwhile, established core residential areas like Streeterville and River North show slower growth.

But this doesn't really mean that the South Loop is booming more than Streeterville, it simply means that the South Loop was largely nonresidential and parts were pretty empty. Growth seems more impressive when you're starting from a base of near-zero, as opposed to a mature residential neighborhood.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Meanwhile, established core residential areas like Streeterville and River North show slower growth.

not necessarily.

the loop proper is the only one of the 4 that saw a significantly higher growth rate last decade.

if we look at the "east of ashland" break-out i just did above for the MUCH too large near west side, the growth rates of the other three are all in the same wheelhouse, even if the numerical increases are quite different because of very different starting points.


Community Area: 2010 - 2020 - change

the loop: 29,283 - 42,298 - +13,015 (+44.5%)

near north: 80,484 - 105,481 - +24,997 (+31.1%)

near west:* 39,130 - 51,199 - +12,069 (+30.8%)

near south: 21,390 - 28,795 - +7,405 (+34.6%)
_______________________________________________

total: 170,287 - 227,773 - +57,486 (+33.8%)



(*) only the "east of ashland" portion

[mrnyc]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

Chicago’s downtown still fastest growing in country, report says
AJ LATRACE NOVEMBER 2, 2021



In the years leading up the pandemic, Chicago’s downtown was witnessing unprecedented growth — both in population and construction activity. Dozens of high-rises were being built at a time, adding thousands of rental units and hotel rooms to the city each year. And despite the downturn caused by the pandemic, Chicago’s Loop and broader central business district is still the fastest growing neighborhood in the city, and the fastest growing downtown in the nation, a report from the Chicago Loop Alliance suggests.

In terms of raw numbers, The Loop, saw an increase from 29,000 residents in the 2010 census to 42,300 residents in 2020 — its highest population yet. This is roughly a 45% gain, the report details, meaning that Chicago’s Loop remains the fastest growing community within the city. To put this in perspective however, Edgewater, one of the city’s most densely populated neighborhoods has a population of 56,300 residents while trendy Logan Square has just over 71,000 residents.

The Loop’s population growth has been significant in the last couple of decades, but the neighborhood still has a long ways to go in catching up with many other Chicago neighborhoods in total resident count.


But when we take a step back and look at the broader downtown area, which includes neighborhoods like River North, Streeterville, the West Loop, South Loop, and others, the numbers become even more significant. The report pegs the total population of Chicago’s downtown at 244,445 residents, or roughly 9% of Chicago’s total population. Double-digit growth in the Near North Side and Near South Side has helped Chicago’s downtown grow faster than any other major downtown district in the country, the Chicago Loop Alliance report proclaims.

While downtown Chicago has growth at a rapid pace in the last decade, the story is much different for the city’s far south side. Neighborhoods like Englewood, Roseland, West Pullman, and Fuller Park all witnessed double-digit population loss. The lop-sided downtown growth and far south side decline meant that the entire city of Chicago only had a 2% population gain between 2010 and 2020, bringing the city’s current population to 2,746,388.

if you replaced chicago with the cleveland version it would be practically the same news.

a real yin and yang there -- and i dk what to think about it.

its really impressive how the downtowns are stepping up, but not great people in other parts of the city are still leaving.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by mrnyc

its really impressive how the downtowns are stepping up, but not great people in other parts of the city are still leaving.

black flight in both cases (along with a fair bit of continued white flight in cleveland's case, which surprised me a bit, woulda thought it had bottomed out by now).

i don't think there's a major rust belt city left that isn't being significantly impacted by black flight.

even milwaukee, one of the last holdouts, saw its black population decrease last decade for the first time ever.

i know that, at least for chicago and detroit, the black flight loss last decade was much lower (roughly halved) than in the '00s, so at least the loss curves are beginning to bend the right way in some of these cities.

I'm not sure where cleveland is at in the process.

[Steely Dan]

i was curious to see how chicago's greater downtown core is doing since its nadir in the 1990 census. that census year, the near north, near west, and near south sides all reached their all-time bottoms, after the previous 4 decades of urban flight had knee-capped them well and good. the loop wasn't at an all time bottom in 1990, but it wasn't an area of terribly significant residential population at any point in the 20th century, so.....


Community Area: 1990 - 2020 - change

the loop: 11,954 - 42,298 - +30,344 (+253.8%)

near north: 62,842 - 105,481 - +42,639 (+67.9%)

near west: 46,197 - 67,881 - +21,684 (+46.9%)

near south: 6,828 - 28,795 - +15,139 (+221.7%)
_______________________________________________

total: 127,821 - 244,445 - +116,624 (+91.2%)


so, a damn near doubling over the past 3 decades, not too shabby at all.


for historical reference, those 4 communtiy areas had a combined population high of 267,893 back in 1950 (with over half of that in the near west side alone).

if current trends continue this decade, we'll blow past that mark by 2030 to set a new all time population high for greater downtown chicago!

[twister244]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

i was curious to see how chicago's greater downtown core is doing since its nadir in the 1990 census. that census year, the near north, near west, and near south sides all reached their all-time bottoms, after the previous 4 decades of urban flight had knee-capped them well and good. the loop wasn't at an all time bottom in 1990, but it wasn't an area of terribly significant residential population at any point in the 20th century, so.....


Community Area: 1990 - 2020 - change

the loop: 11,954 - 42,298 - +30,344 (+253.8%)

near north: 62,842 - 105,481 - +42,639 (+67.9%)

near west: 46,197 - 67,881 - +21,684 (+46.9%)

near south: 6,828 - 28,795 - +15,139 (+221.7%)
_______________________________________________

total: 127,821 - 244,445 - +116,624 (+91.2%)


so, a damn near doubling over the past 3 decades, not too shabby at all.


for historical reference, those 4 communtiy areas had a combined population high of 267,893 back in 1950 (with over half of that in the near west side alone).

if current trends continue this decade, we'll blow past that mark by 2030 to set a new all time population high for greater downtown chicago!

Awesome analysis. I see no reason why greater downtown won't exceed that goal in the next ten years. I'm pretty interested to see how the South side, and areas West of Ogden and south of Hyde Park evolve too. I'm really rooting for these areas to turn around and start filling back in. I would love to see Chicago be a city where people go to both the North and South sides equally and not just the North side. Not that the South side doesn't offer anything now, but it really has so much potential.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by twister244

I'm pretty interested to see how the South side, and areas West of Ogden and south of Hyde Park evolve too. I'm really rooting for these areas to turn around and start filling back in. I would love to see Chicago be a city where people go to both the North and South sides equally and not just the North side. Not that the South side doesn't offer anything now, but it really has so much potential.

1,000% yes to all of that!

and it's already starting on the south lakefront.






area ------------------------ 2010 ------ 2020 ----- growth

inner southeast side ---- 226,241 --- 239,282 --- +13,041 (+5.8%)

inner southwest side --- 355,247 --- 359,941 --- +4,694 (+1.3%)

far southeast side ------ 224,793 --- 208,941 --- -15,852 (-7.1%)

far southwest side ------ 244,147 --- 224,898 --- -19,249 (-7.9%)

TOTAL ------------- 1,050,428 --- 1,033,062 --- -17,366 (-1.7%)



that nearly 6% growth for the inner southeast side area is nothing to scoff at for one one of the most maligned urban places in one of the most stagnant major cities in the nation. it's absolutely only just a start, but also, IT'S A FREAKING START!!!

and the inner southwest side was stable/very modest growth, which again is wonderful to see given the overall context of "THE SOUTHSIDE" <said in a scary boogeyman voice>

however, yes, the far southside is definitely still struggling, and the significant population losses down there dragged the whole southside negative overall, but nowhere near as drastically as some of us had feared, given the southside's gut-punch population loss back in the '00s (-1.7% now vs. nearly -13% then).

[left of center]

Originally Posted by mrnyc

if you replaced chicago with the cleveland version it would be practically the same news.

One difference I feel the need to mention is that while Cleveland lost 25k residents in the 2020 census, Chicago gained 50k. While nowhere near the gain of cities in the Sun Belt or NYC, it definitely is notable that the city stopped the losses from the 2010 census.

That said, Chicago does need to work more towards stabilizing the neighborhoods that continue to see population loss in order to fully prosper and grow to its full potential. Progress has been made in that regard since prior censuses, especially along the south lakefront.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by left of center

One difference I feel the need to mention is that while Cleveland lost 25k residents in the 2020 census, Chicago gained 50k.

like all rust belt cities, cleveland is dealing with a very stiff black flight demographic headwind, but as i mentioned earlier, unlike some rust-belters it also still saw some significant white flight as well.

Cleveland demographic changes 2010-2020:

black: -31,395 (-15.1%)
white: -13,163 (-9.9%)
latino: +9,165 (+23.2%)
asian: +3,177 (+44.0%)
other: +8,025 (+87.7%)
_______________________

total: -24,191 (-6.1%)


now, it did see very strong percentage growths in the other demos, but they were starting from such relatively small bases that they weren't able to overcome the 1 - 2 punch of both continued black and white flight.



in chicago's case, we too experienced a large amount of black flight (-85K, -9.7%), but it was more than off set by positive gains in all the other groups (+135K, +7.4%), to more than make up the difference with a net gain of +50K, +1.9%.

i believe chicago and buffalo were the only two major rust-belt central cities that saw population growth last decade. buffalo is a bit of an outlier because it actually saw a very modest gain in its black population, but also experienced some continued white flight. very strong gains in latinos, asians, and others powered it to the best city-proper growth of the major rust-belters (+6.5%)

[the urban politician]

Damn, Asians are growing like bonkers in the downtown area

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

Damn, Asians are growing like bonkers in the downtown area

indeed, as a percent, asian population growth in greater downtown was +64.1% (from 24,127 in 2010 to 39,586 in 2020).

in fact, given the robust asian growth, combined with the slight loss in black population, asians are now the #2 demo in greater downtown (and that's not even counting armour square which contains the vast bulk of Chinatown).

that would have been hard to believe 25 years ago.



2020 greater downtown Chicago demos:

white: 139,985 (57.3%)
asian: 39,586 (16.2%)
black: 35,315 (14.4%)
latino: 18,806 (7.7%)
other: 10,763 (4.4%)
__________________________

total: 244,445

[Steely Dan]

check out the growth curve of greater downtown chicago over the past 3 decades:

1990 - 2000: 127,821 | 145,219 | +17,398 (+13.6%)

2000 - 2010: 145,219 | 186,038 | +40,819 (+28.1%)

2010 - 2020: 186,038 | 244,455 | +58,407 (+31.4%)


the growth rate has actually been increasing over time. if that curve continues, and we see 33% population growth this decade, that would be an additional 80,667 people, for a total of 325,112 in greater downtown chicago!

and even if 33% growth ends up being a bridge too far, 300K is still very much within sights with a growth rate of 25%.

[Chisouthside]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

check out the growth curve of greater downtown chicago over the past 3 decades:

1990 - 2000: 127,821 | 145,219 | +17,398 (+13.6%)

2000 - 2010: 145,219 | 186,038 | +40,819 (+28.1%)

2010 - 2020: 186,038 | 244,455 | +58,407 (+31.4%)


the growth rate has actually been increasing over time. if that curves continues, and we see 33% population growth this decade, that would be an additional 80,667 people, for a total of 325,112 in greater downtown chicago!

and even if 33% growth ends up being a bridge too far, 300K is still very much within sights.

you can see the physical evidence
https://chicagoyimby.com/2020/08/how...formation.html

[Steely Dan]

^ one of my favorite before/afters is this set looking south from the hancock observatory.



1975


source: https://cellcode.us/quotes/1975-heights-chicago.html





2019


source: http://www.reddit.com/r/chicago/comm...is_hands_down/

[the urban politician]

^ Can anyone here merge these two pics into one of those cool before/after montages?

[Steely Dan]

since this thread has sorta become a census 2020 chicago demographics catch-all:




Community Areas with purple dots on the map above:

15. Portage Park - went from white majority to white plurality
16. Irving Park - went from latino plurality to white plurality
22. Logan Square - went from latino majority to white majority

60. Bridgeport - went from white plurality to asian plurality

56. Garfield Ridge - went from white majority to latino majority
64. Clearing - went from white majority to latino majority
66. Chicago Lawn - went from black plurality to latino majority
70. Ashburn - went from black plurality to latino plurality

[the urban politician]

^ You're on a role, great stuff