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Originally Posted by Dariusb
If I'm not mistaken Sherman/Denison and adjacent Bryan County OK are already in the DFW CSA. I'm sure it's just a matter of time before Gainesville follows suit. I often wonder how big the Metroplex will ultimately be? I'm quite certain it'll exceed the Chicago and Boston-Providence CSA's. Do you think it'll pass the San Francisco-Oakland and Washington-Baltimore CSA's which are currently not far from the 10 million mark.
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DFW CSA will easily surpass Boston CSA and Chicago CSA. SF CSA will be harder but both DFW and HOU should pass it at some point.
It’s just a little behind Boston now and growing much faster. DFW adds 100k more people a year than Boston does so it’ll only take a few years for that. Chicago population is dropping and DFW is growing with the largest numbers in the US. So that one is prolly a sure thing too.
It’s more complicated with the other 2. SF CSA was booming in the beginning of the last decade but its slowed to a crawl now. But SF CSA can always add more territory as it always does. By adding more territory, SF CSA can always keep moving the goal post further ahead. If you look at the SF CSA definition from 2012, DFW CSA already surpassed that but SF just keeps adding more and more areas from the Central Valley and surroundings. I think DFW will surpass it because SF can’t compete with DFW’s population growth (without adding more territory). I also think Houston will jump Boston CSA, Chicago CSA, and eventually SF CSA too.
So that just leaves DC CSA. That’ll be the hardest one for DFW to jump. DFW’s growth is much higher than DC’s but DC’s growth is unpredictable. It basically resets every 4 years depending on what kinda government takes over. DC’s growth is tied to increase or decrease in government spending. And that changes with the president and Congress ever few years making DC’s growth hard to predict.
When all is said and done by 2050 I think DFW CSA will be #3 behind NYC and LA. And Houston will be either #4 or #5, behind NYC, LA, and DFW if it’s #4 or behind NYC, LA, DFW, and DC if it’s #5.