Quote:
Originally Posted by YOWetal
The model doesn't reflect local candidate's start power at least not between elections so that is assuming a uniform movement across Ontario.
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I'd say this is definitely true for most ridings in the country at the moment.
In the case of Timmins-James Bay Gaétan Malette may be a good choice in that the Tories are generally the least favourite choice of francophones (they make up 40% or so of the riding). Francophones in Ontario typically vote as a kind of bloc, usually for the Liberals, occasionally for the NPD but rarely for the Tories.
A high-profile francophone candidate like Malette plus cross-Canada ascendency for the CPC sounds like a winning proposition for them in that riding at least.