Federal Government & Politics II

[plrh]

AA doesn't work for most addicts. But is not to say that it doesn't work at all. Or that it's not worth trying. If it works for 10%, isn't that enough to make it worthwhile to try?

Also, what is the definition of success for addiction treatment? In my mind a reduction of use, or a gain of control over use would count as a success. My experience with addiction treatment (I have never been to an AA meeting) is that you get sober for a time and then slowly escalate into full relapse, and then go back to treatment, over a period of years. And the addiction will never go away, but you end up minimizing the negative outcomes over a lifetime.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by whatnext

….It has long been known that addictive disorders are chronic and relapsing in nature [1, 2]. Recent estimates from clinical treatment studies suggest that more than two thirds of individuals relapse within weeks to months of initiating treatment [3, 4•, 5]. For 1-year outcomes across alcohol, nicotine, weight, and illicit drug abuse, studies show that more than 85% of individuals relapse and return to drug use within 1 year of treatment ..

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/art...PMC3674771/#R2

This is more in response YOWetal than yourself, but that is science. The success of a treatment doesn't determine whether it was predicated on science. It's not like homeopaths are writing scholarly articles scrutinizing the success of their treatment. Anyways, there is a fairly robust body of evidence around opioid agonist treatment (think methadone or suboxone).

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Gotta love how these days if something is outside comfort level or doesn't line up with one's political biases, it becomes "junk science". Always a line from those who haven't taken any science beyond that mandatory credit in their BA.

If you're going to criticize something, try and use something more than ad hominems.

You would think that such a course would have at least laid out an understanding of what science is, but it may have been a while since the poster in question received their BA.

[casper]

Originally Posted by plrh

AA doesn't work for most addicts. But is not to say that it doesn't work at all. Or that it's not worth trying. If it works for 10%, isn't that enough to make it worthwhile to try?

Also, what is the definition of success for addiction treatment? In my mind a reduction of use, or a gain of control over use would count as a success. My experience with addiction treatment (I have never been to an AA meeting) is that you get sober for a time and then slowly escalate into full relapse, and then go back to treatment, over a period of years. And the addiction will never go away, but you end up minimizing the negative outcomes over a lifetime.

There are multiple definitions. I don't work in this field, so I don't know what the experts use. I would think the average number of years until relapse would be an important one.

The goal of these programs should be to keep people out of morgues, hospital emergency rooms and prisons. The first is a social contract issue, the last two are extremely expensive ways of dealing with these problems.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by theman23

This is more in response YOWetal than yourself, but that is science. The success of a treatment doesn't determine whether it was predicated on science. It's not like homeopaths are writing scholarly articles scrutinizing the success of their treatment. Anyways, there is a fairly robust body of evidence around opioid agonist treatment (think methadone or suboxone).


You would think that such a course would have at least laid out an understanding of what science is, but it may have been a while since the poster in question received their BA.

There are no studies nor could there be showing that AA is better than a placebo. There are studies claiming it is better than other methods but of course there is a lot of self selection. But all that is veering off topic. The point is there is no study showing the current approach of not enforcing drug laws, handing out methodone, safe injection, treating addiction only as an illness leads to a healthier and less addicted society. A lot of circumstantial evidence suggests the opposite. Sure if you let some inject supervised by nurses there will be less overdoses in the short term and lots of "studies" can show this. We will take a decisive turn on this issue post election and yes over criminilzaing drugs will also have negative repurcussion but the harm reduction crowd has jumped the shark and will now have to reap what they sowed.

[OldDartmouthMark]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

It's a bit bizarre to expect young people to perform extraordinarily. To my knowledge, young people today have not seen voting drop exceptionally outside general trends in the decline of voting rates. And the overall aging of the population means that they will always be outvoted. Canada is not unique in this. A lot of the developed world is going down the same path unfortunately. What's a bit more unique here is the problems with housing affordability which usually is at the root of so many of our problems from low productivity to low birth rate.

The point you're missing is that it's not only 18 year olds that face a bleak future in terms of housing cost and availability, it's people well into their 30s and 40s, and even older people undergoing life changes such as divorce, finding themselves priced out of the housing market once the assets are split up. The discussion regarding younger people voting is kind of a tangent to that, but as older people die off, the younger people in those dire circumstances age. Not too hard to grasp, I don't think.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by OldDartmouthMark

The point you're missing is that it's not only 18 year olds that face a bleak future in terms of housing cost and availability, it's people well into their 30s and 40s, and even older people undergoing life changes such as divorce, finding themselves priced out of the housing market once the assets are split up. The discussion regarding younger people voting is kind of a tangent to that, but as older people die off, the younger people in those dire circumstances age. Not too hard to grasp, I don't think.

There is a point and it's mid thirties where home ownership rates means more people benefit from high prices. Divorcees and other issues can change that even for owners as you say but there is a reason the promises to bring prices down include ridiculous claims current homes won't change in value as we make new affordable homes for FTHBs. The voting on the issue isn't universal.

[OldDartmouthMark]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

There is a point and it's mid thirties where home ownership rates means more people benefit from high prices. Divorcees and other issues can change that even for owners as you say but there is a reason the promises to bring prices down include ridiculous claims current homes won't change in value as we make new affordable homes for FTHBs. The voting on the issue isn't universal.

This issue has been beaten to death, and I'm not really sure there's anything more to add to it. I just cringe at the continually repeated idea that certain demographics vote as a monolith in order to preserve the value of their houses. The notion is ridiculous for a number of reasons, but there's no sense in repeating it and continuing the circular arguments over and over.

I will say that it appears the majority of the voting population is not happy with current circumstances under a Trudeau LPC government, and I suspect that a large part of that is the housing situation and the erosion of quality of life, which just about everybody but the most staunch Liberal followers has seen as a negative for the country. The polling indicates that people are wanting change, even if that means holding their noses and voting for PP. All the other whitewash is just people wanting to reinforce their ideas and reasons for dissatisfaction with demographics other than their own.

Hopefully this all turns around in the next decade or I see things getting really bad, even after the dreaded boomers no longer populate the planet.

[whatnext]

A brilliant skewering of our government in the Globe & Mail:

How not to run a country: Government ineptitude and Canada’s economic malaise
Dan Breznitz
Includes correction
Special to The Globe and Mail
Published September 28, 2024

Dan Breznitz is the Munk Chair of Innovation Studies at the University of Toronto, as well as the co-director of the Canadian Institute for Advanced Research’s program on innovation, equity and the future of prosperity. He served as the Clifford Clarke Economist for the federal Department of Finance during 2021-22.

This essay is the second in a series, Prosperity’s Path. Successive governments have been warning about Canada’s slowing productivity for more than three decades. Now as the cost of living rises and per-capita economic output shrinks, this problem has reached an inflexion point. Dan Breznitz lays out how we got into this productivity crisis, and how we can get out.

In 2024 Canada has good news to share!

We now have a rapidly growing export industry, already considered to be one of the global top 10.

It is an industrial dream come true, consisting of selling advanced manufacturing goods to the Global South. Statistics are somewhat unreliable, but the annual revenues were above $1.5-billion in 2023 with 2024 promising to break that record.

There is only one problem with this new export – it consists of stolen cars.

Yes, we are now officially an international powerhouse in car theft, according to Interpol. The situation is so bad that in March, 2024, Toronto police advised citizens to leave their keys in the front door to avoid confrontation with the thieves as they enter private homes looking for them, and our Federal Minister of Justice had his government-issued car stolen twice in 2022.

Even more disturbing is what this industry entails: taking a very large object – an SUV – driving it without any apparent problems into a major port; putting said SUVs in a container; loading those containers on ships; and sending them to prearranged foreign destinations. In short, our government has limited ability to control our very own borders, a basic tenet of national sovereignty.

Interestingly, unlike other advanced countries that strategically invest in innovation to become more productive, Canada does not, so the Canada Border Services Agency does not have the same equipment that allows its U.S. counterpart to efficiently scan closed containers or check what goes into them. The only reason we know where our stolen cars end-up is thanks to Canadian citizens searching and finding them for sale on the internet....

... This story embodies the bizarre paradox of our federal government. We are adding people to the ranks of the federal service at an unprecedented pace, moving to a high of 367,772 in 2024 from a low of 257,034 in 2015. At the same time, the capacity of our public service to get things done, and done well, seems to be rapidly deteriorating....

....So, what about that basic function of government that allows it to pay for all those services – taxes? Turns out that the Canadian Revenue Agency (CRA) not only cannot answer the phone when citizens call but also has been systematically lying about its ability to do so.

According to the Auditor-General report that looked at the CRA’s call centres, the CRA has been blocking more than half the calls it received (over 29 million calls annually). Blocking means that the CRA did not even give the caller access to an automated answering system. Worse, the CRA did so in order to be able to claim that it has a brilliant record of addressing citizens’ requests, by counting only the calls actually answered....

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/busi...adas-economic/

[casper]

Originally Posted by whatnext

A brilliant skewering of our government in the Globe & Mail:

How not to run a country: Government ineptitude and Canada’s economic malaise
Dan Breznitz
Includes correction
Special to The Globe and Mail
Published September 28, 2024

....
In 2024 Canada has good news to share!

We now have a rapidly growing export industry, already considered to be one of the global top 10.

It is an industrial dream come true, consisting of selling advanced manufacturing goods to the Global South. Statistics are somewhat unreliable, but the annual revenues were above $1.5-billion in 2023 with 2024 promising to break that record.

There is only one problem with this new export – it consists of stolen cars.

Yes, we are now officially an international powerhouse in car theft, according to Interpol. The situation is so bad that in March, 2024, Toronto police advised citizens to leave their keys in the front door to avoid confrontation with the thieves as they enter private homes looking for them, and our Federal Minister of Justice had his government-issued car stolen twice in 2022.

Even more disturbing is what this industry entails: taking a very large object – an SUV – driving it without any apparent problems into a major port; putting said SUVs in a container; loading those containers on ships; and sending them to prearranged foreign destinations. In short, our government has limited ability to control our very own borders, a basic tenet of national sovereignty.

Interestingly, unlike other advanced countries that strategically invest in innovation to become more productive, Canada does not, so the Canada Border Services Agency does not have the same equipment that allows its U.S. counterpart to efficiently scan closed containers or check what goes into them. The only reason we know where our stolen cars end-up is thanks to Canadian citizens searching and finding them for sale on the internet....

... This story embodies the bizarre paradox of our federal government. We are adding people to the ranks of the federal service at an unprecedented pace, moving to a high of 367,772 in 2024 from a low of 257,034 in 2015. At the same time, the capacity of our public service to get things done, and done well, seems to be rapidly deteriorating....

....So, what about that basic function of government that allows it to pay for all those services – taxes? Turns out that the Canadian Revenue Agency (CRA) not only cannot answer the phone when citizens call but also has been systematically lying about its ability to do so.

According to the Auditor-General report that looked at the CRA’s call centres, the CRA has been blocking more than half the calls it received (over 29 million calls annually). Blocking means that the CRA did not even give the caller access to an automated answering system. Worse, the CRA did so in order to be able to claim that it has a brilliant record of addressing citizens’ requests, by counting only the calls actually answered....

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/busi...adas-economic/

Lets talk about the stolen cars....

In the 90s I went to Montreal with a business friend, he rented the car from Tilden for the trip. We came out of the restaurant and it was stolen. Apparently it happens all the time and is likely in a container to Africa.

This has been going on for decades. But it looks like action is being taken....

Minister LeBlanc announces the deployment of an X-ray scanner to the Greater Toronto Area to help detect more stolen vehicles


Today, the Honourable Dominic LeBlanc, ... announced the deployment of a mobile X-ray scanner to the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). This technology will increase the examination of containers in Ontario.

This is one of the initiatives being undertaken as part of the National Action Plan Combatting Auto Theft,

So far in 2024, the CBSA has intercepted more than 1,300 stolen vehicles in railyards and ports, including 452 in the GTA.

“The addition of this scanner in the GTA will provide border services officers with an additional tool to detect stolen vehicles before they can leave the country. We’ll keep taking action to crack down on auto theft and the organized crime groups behind it.”

https://www.canada.ca/en/border-serv...-vehicles.html

So, I don't know. Either the reporting is wrong, and we actually have a national plan and are buying and using scanners. Or the reporting is correct, we don't have any scanners and are doing nothing.

The truth? Well it is probably somewhere between the two. We probably don't have enough of them and could and should be doing more. There is a plan, and we are moving forward with that plan.

I know, PP wants to claim everything is broken and society has fallen into a lawless state. But it has not. Yes, there are problems that need more attention.

[Hecate]

Originally Posted by casper

Lets talk about the stolen cars....

In the 90s I went to Montreal with a business friend, he rented the car from Tilden for the trip. We came out of the restaurant and it was stolen. Apparently it happens all the time and is likely in a container to Africa.

This has been going on for decades. But it looks like action is being taken....



https://www.canada.ca/en/border-serv...-vehicles.html

So, I don't know. Either the reporting is wrong, and we actually have a national plan and are buying and using scanners. Or the reporting is correct, we don't have any scanners and are doing nothing.

The truth? Well it is probably somewhere between the two. We probably don't have enough of them and could and should be doing more. There is a plan, and we are moving forward with that plan.

I know, PP wants to claim everything is broken and society has fallen into a lawless state. But it has not. Yes, there are problems that need more attention.

This is like trying to put it a bush fire with a teaspoon

Canadas government needs a clean sweep, all the bureaucrats who over saw this increase in crime need to go.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by casper

Lets talk about the stolen cars....

In the 90s I went to Montreal with a business friend, he rented the car from Tilden for the trip. We came out of the restaurant and it was stolen. Apparently it happens all the time and is likely in a container to Africa.

This has been going on for decades. But it looks like action is being taken....

https://www.canada.ca/en/border-serv...-vehicles.html

So, I don't know. Either the reporting is wrong, and we actually have a national plan and are buying and using scanners. Or the reporting is correct, we don't have any scanners and are doing nothing.

The truth? Well it is probably somewhere between the two. We probably don't have enough of them and could and should be doing more. There is a plan, and we are moving forward with that plan.

I know, PP wants to claim everything is broken and society has fallen into a lawless state. But it has not. Yes, there are problems that need more attention.

This is peak Liberal cope. Things are worse than ever on this front and by a wide margin. I think courts and bureacrats and cops are as much or more to blame than politicans but there is a general malaise that we can't fix X becaues there is x rule or whatever. Change the rules and reallocate resources. Every car owner is paying for this. Actually EV cars are mostly exempt (nobdoy wants them overseas) so maybe it's all part of the plan.

[OldDartmouthMark]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Actually EV cars are mostly exempt (nobdoy wants them overseas) so maybe it's all part of the plan.

Brilliant!

[casper]

Originally Posted by Hecate

This is like trying to put it a bush fire with a teaspoon

Canadas government needs a clean sweep, all the bureaucrats who over saw this increase in crime need to go.

I know some really want to believe things are worse now. However, the data does not support this.

Auto theft rates peeked in 2004 at 550 per 100,000 residents. Now we are at 280 cars/per 100,000 residents. They have been stable since 2011.

Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ehicle-thefts/

[whatnext]

Isn't it funny (as in strange, not haha) that we never hear anything about who the suspects are in these auto thefts....

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Isn't it funny (as in strange, not haha) that we never hear anything about who the suspects are in these auto thefts....

Well those arrested are generally identified. What has been missing are more arrests of those at the Port of Montreal who facilitate.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by casper

I know some really want to believe things are worse now. However, the data does not support this.

Auto theft rates peeked in 2004 at 550 per 100,000 residents. Now we are at 280 cars/per 100,000 residents. They have been stable since 2011.

Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ehicle-thefts/

That is amazing - virtually everyone would assume that the problem has been getting worse. The chart only shows a modest uptick over the past two years.