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Originally Posted by bossabreezes
The cookie cutter suburban areas are cheaper than the East Coast, but the places that people actually want to be are pretty outlandishly and artificially expensive IMO. I'm sure many East Coasters would agree.
I'm not trying to be rude or upset anyone when I say this, I just see this becoming a problem in the not-too-distant future. It could be a bubble on the horizon or some kind of slowdown due to the expense. I think Nashville is in a similar situation, although Nashville actually has more scarcity of land due to topography than Austin does and potentially justifies its high housing costs.
I don't see many young New Yorkers moving to Austin to live in a cookie cutter suburb, but precisely to the overly expensive areas that we're talking about. I know quite a few people, including one of my best friends who turned down a transfer to Austin due to its COL, and they currently live in New York. I've also worked out that living in Austin would cost more per month than it would in New York for me, mainly due to the necessity of having a car, something I don't have right now. Rents are actually not much cheaper out there for something nice.
In any case, I wish Austin the best and hope it can solve its housing issue.
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I wouldn't worry about Austin. It's going to do just fine. I think I read last month that 45% of new Austinites came from either the Bay Area, New York or Chicago (55% coming from intra-state). Maybe the New Yorkers moving there don't mind living in cookie-cutter neighborhoods?!? Maybe that is the appeal?!? I don't know. But, they're moving. Austin is just not right for everyone. And that is a-okay.
With regard to Austin's prices...value is based on what someone is willing to pay. Just like you are only worth what someone is willing to pay you. Supply and demand. And, there is quite a gap in Austin right now. As more housing comes online, prices will stabilize. There is currently no concern of a bubble within the real estate professional establishment.
Additionally, Austin has it own topographical (and ecological/environmental) challenges - especially in its entire western frontier (from northwest Austin metro to southwest Austin metro). And the east side is not exactly flat either.
All-in-all, I too hope that the city can fast-track the entitlement process for a myriad of housing projects in the pipeline.
*A few interesting recent data points - since a comparison to Nashville was broached:
Nashville: seeing about ½ of the active listings it saw at this point in 2020. Roughly 2.4 months of inventory.
Austin: seeing about ¼ of the active listings it saw at this point in 2020. Roughly 0.4 months of inventory.
Austin, Phoenix, Nashville, Tampa and Denver are expected to be the hottest markets in 2021. While New York, San Fransisco and Los Angeles are expected to be the weakest.