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What will drive Hamilton voters?
(Hamilton Spectator, Matthew Van Dongen, Oct 28 2013)

Brace for a collision between car commuters, bus boosters and light-rail advocates as Hamilton's marathon race for mayor really starts to roll.

Expect the election to play out in the shadow of a stadium that is also the city's biggest and most bitterly debated infrastructure investment in recent history. It could even turn on a toss of the dice over a controversial casino.

Above all, the municipal vote will hinge on the question of leadership, say opinion leaders polled by The Spec a year before the Oct. 27, 2014 vote. The right champion for the economy, transit and a council still divided along suburban-urban lines.

With campaign-style jousting already under way, The Spectator gives you a taste of a few meaty issues that could frame the battle for the city's top job.

Transportation

Keanin Loomis wants our next mayor to show "vision, leadership and ambition" in transforming our transportation system — which the chamber of commerce head considers the "biggest drag" on Hamilton's economy.

Different candidates will define transit leadership in different ways, predicts Marvin Ryder, an assistant professor in McMaster's school of business. He argues Mayor Bob Bratina "bet heavily" on bringing all-day GO Train service to Hamilton as a winning formula — even as Metrolinx pushes timely service further into the future.

Bratina has also infuriated transit advocates by refusing to champion a much-debated light-rail transit line that would run east-west through the city. His known competitors, Councillor Brian McHattie and former mayor Fred Eisenberger, are fervent LRT supporters — but they'd face a challenge keeping council support on the rails if Ontario doesn't pay the $1-billion tab.

It's not all about light rail. City bus ridership is languishing, and the debate over two-way traffic conversions and complete streets remains hot. Ancaster Councillor and rumoured mayoral candidate Lloyd Ferguson, an LRT fan, has warned against shrinking too many major traffic arteries for bike lanes or two-way conversions because of congestion.

The stadium

Just before the election, Hamilton voters should wander into a new $145-million Tim Hortons Field for the first time. Ryder wonders which memories will stick with them at the polls. "Will it be the Ticats' first game in the new stadium? Or will it be that empty wasteland in the west harbour? I think it's a very open question."

Eisenberger was pummeled in the last election over the bitter battle — an effort that saw the city spend millions to buy out reluctant homeowners for a failed west harbour stadium.

Bratina helped broker a deal with the Tiger-Cats — who had threatened to leave town over the west harbour plan — to rebuild Ivor Wynne instead.

But that forced compromise wasn't popular, said Larry Di Ianni. The former mayor, who said he isn't considering another run at the job "at the moment," suggested residents won't easily forget the divisive and sometimes ridiculous stadium battle.

"I think the considered opinion of the majority is the stadium is in the wrong place," Di Ianni said. "It's possible someone could be held to account for that."

Council relations

Bratina's thorny relationship with council looms large in the upcoming election.

In 2012, Bratina was found to have broken council's code of conduct after lying about who initiated a $30,000 raise for his chief of staff, Peggy Chapman. That finding spurred a unanimous council censure. Both were firsts for a Hamilton mayor.

The mayor is also awaiting the results of a second ethics complaint investigation spurred by a confrontation with city manager Chris Murray during a fractious LRT debate.

Finally, council tried to rein in the mayor's ability to lobby senior levels of government on his own by creating a "governmental relations" team to "assist" him in high-level talks.

An effective mayor needs a "thick skin" and a "strong relationship" with a majority of council colleagues, said Terry Cooke, past chair of the Region of Hamilton-Wentworth and champion of the eventual amalgamated city.

Cooke wouldn't discuss the record of Bratina or any other potential mayoral candidate. However, he said that in general, finding common ground in politically diverse Hamilton isn't easy. "When I left (politics), I said it was time to let someone else use my Kevlar vest. I was only half-joking."

Economy

Expect anyone on the current council gunning for the mayor's chair to "take credit for all the cranes," said Ryder, pointing to a construction boom that featured $1 billion in building permits in 2010.

The visible reminder of new prosperity may sway voters, he said. But on the other hand, "a lot of people are ready to just vote for the guy likeliest to keep their taxes down."

He said council should be proud of recent budget restraint, including an average 1.9 per cent tax bump in 2013. But that record could easily be forgotten in another "nasty showdown" next spring over a bulging police budget already north of $140 million.

Would-be leaders in pursuit of a zero-increase budget can't forget those Hamiltonians living in poverty, said Cooke, head of the Hamilton Community Foundation. "I think the debate has to include a conversation about how we build on momentum in our inner city neighbourhoods."

Casino

A $200-million downtown hotel and casino was shunted to the back burner this term after council voted to keep rural Flamboro Downs as its preferred gaming site.

But if the Ontario Lottery and Gaming Commission survives a change in leadership and an auditor's review of its expansion plans, the controversial casino proposal might still come alive to rile up a divided electorate.

"Our (chamber of commerce) membership is quite split, so it should obviously be an issue," said Loomis.

Cooke said many social and health agencies, including the foundation, are on the record stating a casino "would be particularly bad news" for downtown residents.

"I think (candidates) would have to declare themselves on that one pretty quickly," he said.