[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by jawagord

1. Non-luxury EV’s are not profitable from any manufacturer, beyond meeting government regulations for fleet economy there’s no incentive to produce more EV’s when you lose money on each one. Toyota estimates a production level of 50,000 units per year is required to justify a vehicle model, how many EV’s are attaining that production?

Costs come down as production scales. Who is making EVs are the kind of scale where they can compete with lower cost gas vehicles?

Originally Posted by jawagord

2. Reduced battery costs are not going to dramatically lower the cost of EV’s. Tesla’s says a replacement battery will retail for $3000-7,000, then what does it cost Tesla to put batteries into a new car, $2-3 thousand? If you cut that price in half, you reduce the selling price of a model 3 by what $2000? https://interestingengineering.com/t...ound-5000-7000

That's true for Tesla. Not as true for every other carmarket. Otherwise, nobody could sell EVs for less than Tesla.

Originally Posted by jawagord

3. The cheapest Tesla EV is a small luxury car, which is a small and shrinking market segment. Tesla can grow by cannibalizing market share of other small luxury car manufacturers but overall this is a very small segment of the vehicle market that is becoming EV. The SUV market is where growth is and that market is dominated by ICE’s. https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2019-u...sales-figures/

Until appropriate competition shows up. I'm sure BMW, MB, Audi and Lexus didn't think they'd lose be losing sales from their highest volume models to an EV either.

Originally Posted by jawagord

4. Government subsidies for EV’s will go away at some point as sales increase, everywhere that has happened we’ve seen a dramatic drop in sales, we need only look at Ontario to see the effect. It’s catch 22 for EV sales.

Indeed. True when EVs cost $70k. But subsidies aren't needed when EVs cost $30k. And that's the direction things are going.

Originally Posted by jawagord

5. Lack of infrastructure for charging EV’s in condos and apartments will limit potential buyers as you have noted. We bought a new 2019 condo last year, no power at our underground parking stall.

Absolutely. Which is why I said, I don't think the obstacle is the cost of the car. It's infrastructure.

Originally Posted by jawagord

Seems to me there are plenty of hurdles to overcome for EV’s. Personally I think a plug in hybrid vehicle is a better choice for the Canadian climate and geography, but if Warren wants to gift me his Tesla I’ll take it!

Guessing you don't drive a hybrid. I do. I would either go full electric or back to gas. And batteries are advancing so fast that it that I think they'll be competitive with gas vehicles shortly. Plug-ins aren't going to be competitive for long.

Originally Posted by jawagord

It seems likely to me that Amazon and others will end up with a mix of EV and ICE vehicles that have specific niches of operation.

Bezos has specifically said that the Rivian order is part of a strategy to electrify Amazon's last mile delivery. That Rivian order is over 3x the size of the current Amazon delivery fleet. And they were specifically designed for Amazon, along with other vehicles they are working on. Amazon is also a major investor in Rivian with a $700 million investment. It's not some random relationship where they just order a few vehicles.

Originally Posted by jawagord

Amazon Buying So Many Commercial Vans, It's a Boom for Mercedes, FCA, and Ford

As the gray delivery vans head down your street with packages, relax knowing you've helped the auto industry even though you didn't even get in the car.

.......delivery vehicles Amazon uses today that have already helped other automakers that sell vans to the retail giant, in particular Daimler's Mercedes-Benz (Sprinter), Fiat Chrysler (Ram ProMaster), and Ford (Transit).

Automotive News says sales of all three of these vans are up this year, with the Sprinter up almost 3 percent year over year in 2019, Ram's ProMaster up 25 percent from 2018, and the Transit having a record third quarter. In fact, it's likely going to be a record year for fleet sales in general, according to Automotive News. It's not just Amazon: other companies, rental-car agencies, and governments have already purchased 2.6 million units for their fleets through November, the paper says, citing Cox Automotive data.


https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a3...-mercedes-fca/

Amazon is ordering regular delivery vans until they can get enough from Rivian. That shouldn't be a surprise for anybody. But it's not just Amazon. There's UPS with its order for 10 000 vehicles from Arrival, the company that is working to electrify Royal Mail in the UK. DHL actually owns a company that build its electric delivery vehicles: Streetscooter.

Electrified delivery vehicles will be the norm in a decade. Companies that don't are going to get run over by Amazon and their 100 000 Rivian fleet. Hard to compete with delivery costs that low.