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Old Posted Apr 21, 2017, 12:10 AM
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Location: Vancouver
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Originally Posted by Drybrain View Post
I just added up all the peninsula census tracts, and the growth indicated by the 2016 census was small, but it did grow, by about 300 and some people. I feel as if the peninsula may be overrepresented among areas that were undercounted as well.
I'm not sure how the census tract level data works; it if ever will be corrected or if the data from the last census will be corrected.

Development-wise the peninsula is really two different areas. There's the urban core which is open to development and is attracting lots of development and then there are the stable neighbourhoods which don't see much construction and generally slowly decline in population as household sizes shrink. It doesn't make much sense to add them together.

More importantly, five years ago, single-family home starts were around 1,000 annually. The last two years they've barely been 400, while peninsula multi-units have spiked, even as the residential vacancy rate has remained low, and in fact is lower on the peninsula than elsewhere. So that indicates accelerating population growth.
Major buildings like the Maple are going to have an impact on the numbers downtown. While there was a lot of construction happening during the time when information was being collected for the 2016 census, I'm not sure many of those buildings were occupied yet. I guess the big bump in population will happen in 2017 and 2018, and will show up in the 2021 census. I would not be surprised to see 3,000 or more people living in that downtown tract by 2021 (that is not much more than the rate of growth from 2011-2016). That tract had 1,738 people in 2001, so that is a substantial change.
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