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Originally Posted by Crawford
I'm not clear why the "best time" to start a giant construction project is in the middle of a pandemic, national breakdown and great depression.
I also don't see why it matters if said project is a downtown highrise or exurban campus; right now most people are waiting this nightmare out. Once there's a vaccine and federal leadership, normalcy will ensue.
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A New Yorker should just have to look out the window to see a couple of skyline icons that were built during the Great Depression and functioned not only as projects keeping people at work but also something to be proud of for years to come.
The question for any developer has to be what the situation will be when the project is completed and ready for occupancy, usually 2 or 3 years hence. I think the US economy will be doing fine by then. We will have a vaccine for COVID and there will have, by then, been time to give it to most people who want it.
As always, the people who will make money are the ones willing to take a little risk but I don't see that much risk in starting most projects for which there was a market seen a year ago, now. Sure travel (and hotel use) may be slower to return than the need for housing and some companies may need less office space, but I don't think those effects will be as dramatic, once the vaccine exists, as people have been saying.