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Old Posted Jul 26, 2009, 11:24 AM
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UrbanMelb UrbanMelb is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 3
Originally Posted by MyFavco View Post
Growth rates of Australian Cities (not towns or regional areas) have historically been between 1.0 and 3.0%. That is a narrow band, and it is highly unlikely to change. Growth rates of our capitals are actually fairly steady and consistent.

The ABS makes futue population estimates using upper, middle and lower projections. Melbourne has had fantastic growth over the last three years, but who is to say that it will stay at the upper limit for ever? Like all things in life, these calculations always come back to the average.

For Melb to overtake Sydney, the growth rate required has to be consistently above the historical average. Also, Sydney would have to grow well below its average, peremantley.

The laws of probabilities tells us that this wont happen.

So, while 'one city overtaking another' makes for great reading, and this story is printed in each respective cities local rag every now and then, it is actually all a lot of fiction.
Well I guess time will tell. But I do agree with you that projections are not something which should be taken as Gospel however they do give one a good idea about how particular cities are currently fairing.

I am concerned that you misunderstood the emphasis of my post which was "in relation to any capital city outgrowing another.... not likely based on ABS projections up until 2056". Particular emphasis was on Brisbane not being close to overtaking Melbourne in the near or distant future. I thought it would be interesting to note the one projection where any city was projected to overtake another because it did not involve Brisbane - further adding to my original intention.
Melbourne @ 5 million
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