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Originally Posted by rgolch
The potential shortage of ventilators is also a choke point. I don't think they're going to start encouraging people to be in public gatherings for a long while yet, because they can't manufacture another 100,000 ventilators overnight.
And a potential drug? Don't forget that the common cold is also a corona virus, and there's never been a know effective treatment for that. I wouldn't hold my breath. Buckle up, because we're in for a long ride.
My question to those with a background in economics is, is this market downturn short lived? Or is it years in the making? And will we continue this free-fall for the rest on the year? I know it sounds insensitive to say this, as many people are losing their jobs and businesses. But it's very frustrating to watch my net worth hemorrhage away.
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The common cold isn't nearly as serious. There isn't as much incentive nor interest in solving non-serious medical problems. There is some drug process for SARS 1, and with this being so widespread, that related research is being applied and accelerated to this SARS 2.
As for predictions what this downturn looks like, it's a fools errand because they're is nothing like it to base predictions on and we have no sense yet if how long the causes will last. We know the cause of this downturn, and can predict that when those are resolved things will then start to turn normal, but we don't yet know when they will be resolved. It has some similarities to the 2008 crisis, but also many differences, so even that isn't predictive.