Quote:
Originally Posted by isaidso
Yes, we don't tend to think of London as a fast growing city. London has grown strongly in absolute terms and also in terms of population growth rates for a long time. London growth has been comparable to Toronto growth but I'm not sure if one can still say that. Recent data out of the ONS suggests that population growth has dropped off significantly the last 2-3 years. In terms of the UK and Canada, Canada has had significantly higher population growth rates for decades. In absolute terms, the increase has been very similar as the UK is working off a bigger base population.
As with the London - Toronto comparison, things have changed the last few years. Canada still has a much higher population growth rate than the UK but now its noticeably larger in absolute terms as well. What could only be viewed as a blip after the first year is now a trend line. The question becomes whether the population increase 2018-2019 in Canada and the UK is something we'll see repeated going forward. Is this the new normal?
Population growth 2018-2019
Canada +531,497 (+1.43%)
Australia +371,100 (+1.48%)
United Kingdom +361,257 (+0.54%)
(...)
https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/mf/3101.0
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/...020003-eng.htm
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...imates/mid2019 |
My bet is that all three will slow down as pretty much every country in the world. TFR keeps falling, resulting in an always smaller natural growth. Economic prospects on short term are not that great either.
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About the concept Australia and Canada will necessarily overtake the UK economically and demographically, in the 1960's-1970's, Canadian GDP had reached more than 70% of the British as opposed to 60% now.
On the past 50 years, the British had actually did better than its former dominions, leaving the post-war malaise. Same comparison is valid for Australia, and specially, New Zealand, that dropped from the highest GDP per capita on the developed world to one of the lowest.
And none could imagine on the late 1980's that London would surge the way it did, with a booming population and becoming once again the centre of world's finances.
That's why long term projections are just guesses or pure fiction. Adding Covid-19, even 2030 became to deep in the future.