[durandy]

here's my take on it so far:

Eisenberger and Sgro seems too close to call unfortunately. That's a bad sign for yesLRT even if Eisenberger wins because there won't be a strong mandate. They will pose some questions to the province and then wait for the response before holding a vote, so there won't be any clear answer until well into 2019.

I don't see any incumbents at risk except for Conley.

ward 1: I see Maureen Wilson winning this one. I live in the ward and while Jason Allan has campaigned well, Maureen has been everywhere and has a lot of support.

Ward 3: I think this will be Nann by a lot with a really solid campaign with lots of volunteers and endorsements.

Ward 7: I pretty much have the same non-opinion as in my previous post on this, it's really hard to tell these people apart.

Ward 8: from driving through the ward I see tons of signs for Adams, Ruddick and Danko, with probably the edge to Danko. My sense is Adams will do a lot worse than the signs suggest and Ruddick better. Hoping for Danko here though.

Ward 9: I'm betting Clark wins this back pretty easily. He's just so much more capable than Conley.


Making the results for LRT, including both/all candidates where it's close:

for: Wilson, Farr, Merulla, Danko, Nann, Eisenberger

against: Whitehead, Partridge, Conley or Clark, Johnson, Ruddick, Adams, pretty much everyone in ward 7, Sgro

somewehere in the middle: Pearson, Ferguson, Collins, Vanderbeek, Jackson

From this, seems to me there are four definite yesLRT wards and six no (unless Clark is being tricky in his recent aboutface, and giving no hope to Dan Macintyre)

However grim as that looks, correct me if I'm wrong, but the noLRT group needs nine votes to cancel the project, whereas the yesLRT only needs eight, since a tie would lose and a failure to cancel it means the project proceeds.

In any event, if Sgro wins as well as one of Ruddick or Adams, then only one more would be needed and it will surely die, maybe before end of year.

On the flip side, if Eisenberger and Danko win, then just two others are needed and I think Ferguson, Pearson, Collins and Vanderbeek will all follow that lead.

In most other scenarios, it comes down to the response from the province to the question of the availability of the funds for other projects.

So basically, big potential for tragedy, small glimmer of a miracle, and most likely, stay tuned for more all night LRT debates well into 2019.