When people speak of innovation as it pertains to oil, my eyes roll back in my head. I don't know what it means, but I'm pretty sure it has something to do with a wish and a prayer. Or perhaps something borne out of a Hollywood film script. A lot of people think that when oil becomes really scarce, we'll just input 'technology.' I don't know what that means either. Nobody knows what that means. This isn't Star Trek after all: Klingons, warp speed and photon torpedoes aren't real (though I wish they were).
People need to think long and hard about the future of oil. Forget twenty years because we're in big trouble already. I mean, look at what we're doing in Alberta - that's desperation. It's low grade oil that requires massive amounts of processing (and money of course), resulting in an ongoing, slow-motion environmental disaster. We're doing that because most of the world's big oil exporters are both producing less and using more at home.
Again, this is an situation nobody in the general public, the media or politics wants to discuss (or understands for that matter). But put your ear to the ground and listen to what geologists have to say - it's not good. You have to ignore the Forbes Magazines of this world because they're horribly biased on the issue. In fairness to them, though, they have to paint as rosy a picture as possible or what's left of the economy will go south in a big hurry - I get that. But it's geologists for BP, Shell and so on that we must listen to. They're the ones whose job it is to know how much oil there is and whether or not we can get our hands on it - they're worried.
And by the way, those predictions are not mine; they're the predictions of experts in this field. Yes, oil prices may go down (as the economy fluctuates wildly) but invariably they will rise.
The OECD, whose modus operandi it is to promote economic development around the world, predicts oil at $270/ barrel by
2020. Whether it's $270 or $150/ barrel doesn't really matter - we'll be in trouble either way.
Biofuels are a non-starter because there isn't enough corn and algae on the planet to fuel our insatiable appetites. And why wouldn't we just eat the corn? Isn't that more important than pumping it into our SUVs? The resultant deforestation involved with increasing our food to fuel program would far outweigh any net benefit anyway.
In the end, we'll destroy this planet in a vain effort to keep our cars on the road. What's the point in having a car if you've got no job to go to? These warehousing jobs won't be viable if oil prices rise as predicted. And as pointed out, cheap oil will only be an indication of a failed economy, so that's moot. After all, there are no new - massive - oil fields coming on line. That's been done unfortunately. All we're left with is the dregs.