Encontrei uma matéria muito interessante, demonstrando que muitas cidades brasileiras já existem saturação de shopping centers, e adivinha quais cidades ainda tem muito espaço para expansão dos shoppings.... Brasília e Santos...kkkk
Brazil’s shopping mall industry under the microscope
X-Ray of Brazilian shopping malls and the listed players
In this note, we provide an in-depth analysis of the Brazilian shopping mall industry, based on a database we prepared using information from Abrasce, Alshop and other mall associations. Overall, we mapped almost 600 shopping malls (operating) plus 42
greenfields (to be opened), totaling ~16.8mn m² of GLA in Brazil. Having grown at a ~7% CAGR 2006-16 in the past decade, we forecast much milder growth in upcoming years as greenfield opportunities appear to be few and far between.
Brazil as a whole is undersupplied, but it is a different story in the main markets
At first glance, Brazil (76m² GLA/000’ inhabitants) is undersupplied vs. other countries (US – 2,200; Europe – 325; Chile – 167; and Mexico – 89). But adjusting for Brazil’s highly dispersed population (45% in cities with under 100k people and thus do not
absorb a regional mall), we reach a GLA/capita ratio of 135m²/th (positioning it between Chile and Mexico). The hard truth is that Brazil’s mall industry is very concentrated, but at least concentrated where it needs to be (i.e. where most people and income are!).
Oversupply is concentrated in a few cities… the “usual suspects”
We do not consider Brazil to be “undersupplied”, but nor do we see it as oversupplied. In fact, there are some (renowned) cities where GLA levels (vs. people and income) are too high: Ribeirão, Sorocaba, São José do Rio Preto, Vila Velha, Londrina, etc. But
there are also very few cities offering greenfield opportunities (Brasília and Santos). So, it is no surprise to see that most greenfields (47%) are targeting cities with no mall yet, ramming home the growth challenges in Brazil.
IGTA more exposed to competitive markets; ALSC “on its own” in more places
When looking at listed companies’ exposure to the main Brazilian cities, we see that Iguatemi’s portfolio has the biggest exposure to “oversupplied” cities (i.e. with higher GLA/capita), due to its malls in Ribeirão, Sorocaba, SJRP and Campinas. Iguatemi’s strategy has been to grow in cities where, despite higher competition, income ratios are higher. Aliansce’s portfolio (more B/C-class oriented), reflecting its presence in the North/Northeast and Rio, has the lowest GLA/capita ratio.
Fewer greenfield opportunities (time to focus on M&A?)
Based on our findings, and due to the presence of fewer “underpenetrated” markets (comprised of cities that do not absorb a regional shopping mall), companies may find it harder to keep growing via greenfields. In addition, competition in the “more obvious” markets is already strong, while a bleak macro certainly does not help. We thus believe companies should focus on M&A, taking advantage of those malls suffering from higher competition and/or buying minority stakes in their own portfolios.
BTG Pactual Affiliate Research
Banco BTG Pactual S.A.
Latin America
Shopping Mall
SectorNote
10 April 2017