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Old Posted Feb 4, 2009, 12:21 AM
New Brisavoine New Brisavoine is offline
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Originally Posted by SHiRO View Post
So 40 years is completely unrealistic when it comes to immigration, but not when it comes to current population trends?
Germany doesn't even have a net migration of +300,000/year today. In the past 10 years it had a net migration of +123,195 per year on average as I said, so believing that somehow Germany could suddenly have a net migration of +300,000 every year over the next 41 years is what's unrealistic.
Originally Posted by SHiRO View Post
Neither you nor INSEE nor anyone else can accurately predict 40 years into the future. You don't know what the death-, birth- and immigrationrates are going to be! Maybe people will live to be a 120 in 10 years...Maybe Germany succeeds in attracting a lot of those needed immigrants...maybe for some reason many French will move to Germany even...,
Predictions are based on probability. If I plan to have my wedding in July, it's because I know that's the time of the year when there's the highest probability of sunshine, even though of course I can't be 100% sure, but still the probability is far higher than if I planned to have my wedding in March.

The population projections that have the highest probability to materialize are the central scenarios of the French and German statistical offices, like it or not. Your scenarios (sudden big increase in the German fertility rate, big fall in the French fertility, massive immigration in Germany) are not totally impossible, but they have a low probability. Just like a snow storm in the end of spring. Not totally impossible, but low probability.
Originally Posted by SHiRO View Post
It is completely unrealistic to assume that Germany is "just" going to loose nearly 20 million people and France will just keep cruising along.
Germany is not going to lose 20 million people. In the central scenario of the German statistical office, with a net migration of +100,000 every year, Germany would lose 13 million people between now and 2050. As for France, it will not "keep cruising along". Population growth in France will slow down due to the shape of the population pyramid. The slow down will be particularly strong after 2025, but the French population will nonetheless continue to grow, albeit slower than today.
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