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Old Posted Feb 3, 2009, 9:39 PM
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SHiRO SHiRO is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: Barcelona
Posts: 15,728
So 40 years is completely unrealistic when it comes to immigration, but not when it comes to current population trends?

Neither you nor INSEE nor anyone else can accurately predict 40 years into the future. You don't know what the death-, birth- and immigrationrates are going to be! Maybe people will live to be a 120 in 10 years...Maybe Germany succeeds in attracting a lot of those needed immigrants...maybe for some reason many French will move to Germany even..., the point is noone knows. Things could look very different even a year from now. In demograpics, there is no such thing as "a long term trend" that can be projected into the future. And using current figures and projecting them into the future gets exponentionally more inaccurate every year you take it further.

It is completely unrealistic to assume that Germany is "just" going to loose nearly 20 million people and France will just keep cruising along.
For some the coast signifies the end of their country and for some it signifies the beginning of the world...
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