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Old Posted Feb 3, 2009, 9:22 PM
New Brisavoine New Brisavoine is offline
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Originally Posted by SHiRO View Post
300,000 year for a country like Germany is peanuts. Spain added 400,000 a year in the last 10 years and Germany is twice as big and in the middle of Europe.
Spain has sustained these very high migration rates for only 10 years, not for 40 years. Here we're talking of 41 straight years with a net migration above +300,000 that would be needed. It's completely unrealistic.

In the past 10 years the net migration in Germany has been +123,195 per year on average, a far cry from +300,000. And in recent years the net migration in Germany has dwindled despite attempts of the German government to attract qualified immigrants.
2005: +78,953
2006: +22,791
2007: +43,912
2008: 0 (according to preliminary estimates of the German statistical office)

The reason why the net migration has dwindled is because many young Germans leave Germany to settle in Austria and Switzerland where they find better job opportunities. It's the German statistical office who say it, not me, for the records. For example in 2007, 680,766 immigrants came to Germany, but 636,854 people left Germany, so the net migration was only +43,912.
Originally Posted by SHiRO View Post
Also your ASSumption that France is going to sustain its birthrate for another 40 years is not entirely scientific.
It's not "my" assumption, it's the assumption of the French statistical office. And they didn't assume France was going to sustain the current 2.0 fertility rate, they only assumed France would sustain a 1.9 fertility rate to make their population projections.
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