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Old Posted Feb 3, 2009, 1:42 PM
New Brisavoine New Brisavoine is offline
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There are people who just can't accept facts. However you look at it, and no matter what scenario is used in the population projections, France will have a larger population than Germany in 2050. For Germany to still have a larger population than France in 2050 would require:
- either a big increase of the German fertility rate (unlikely; we're talking of a big increase here, something like going from 1.4 to 1.9 or so, not a small increase; the final descendence of German women has been very low for 30 years already, it's a long term trend)
- or massive immigration in Germany (and I mean MASSIVE, i.e. net migration superior to +300,000 every year until 2050; as we all know, the German society is not ready for immigration on such a scale)
- or a big fall of the French fertility (again, not a small fall, but a big fall, something like going from 2.0 to 1.5; since fertility rates tend to follow long term trends, I don't see this big fall very likely)

So the chances that any of these three conditions materializes are not totally impossible, but they are very low. It's like snow in June. Not totally impossible (it snowed in Western Europe in June 1787), but very low chances.

For an idea of the more likely scenarios:
- in 2050 France should have between 74 million and 84 million inhabitants. 74 million is the central scenario of the French statistical office, based on a net migration of +100,000 per year, but so far it is lagging behind reality (i.e. the French population these past years has been growing faster than in the central scenario, due to higher fertility than expected). In the high scenario of the French statistical office, which is the scenario that matches the population growth observed these past years, France would have 84 million inhabitants in 2050.
- in 2050, according to the central scenario of the German statistical office, Germany would have 74 million inhabitants if there is a net migration of +200,000 every year, 69 million inhabitants if there is a net migration of +100,000 every year, and 62.5 million inhabitants if net migration is 0 (as many people leave Germany as move to Germany). In 2008 the net migration in Germany was 0. In 2007 it was +43,912.
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