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Old Posted Jul 26, 2009, 9:22 AM
MyFavco MyFavco is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 25
Growth rates of Australian Cities (not towns or regional areas) have historically been between 1.0 and 3.0%. That is a narrow band, and it is highly unlikely to change. Growth rates of our capitals are actually fairly steady and consistent.

The ABS makes futue population estimates using upper, middle and lower projections. Melbourne has had fantastic growth over the last three years, but who is to say that it will stay at the upper limit for ever? Like all things in life, these calculations always come back to the average.

For Melb to overtake Sydney, the growth rate required has to be consistently above the historical average. Also, Sydney would have to grow well below its average, peremantley.

The laws of probabilities tells us that this wont happen.

So, while 'one city overtaking another' makes for great reading, and this story is printed in each respective cities local rag every now and then, it is actually all a lot of fiction.
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