[emathias]

Originally Posted by ardecila

Yes, the idea that you could "bypass downtown" on a Circle Line and head back out only makes sense to people who've never had to make a rail transfer in other cities. I think a lot of us recognized back then that for the new line to make sense as an investment, we'd have to do some serious upzoning along the corridor - which seemed crazy.

Now, of course, it doesn't seem so crazy that professionals might live and work in dense nodes outside of downtown.

I, for one, didn't think it seemed crazy then. Chicago used to predict the future and build for it. Sometimes the future changed by the time we were done building (Deep Tunnel/TARP, I'm looking at you), but we took the "make no small plans" thing pretty seriously. Today it seems like everyone is afraid to make big proposals in the public sphere. We get a few ambitious private plans (The 78, Lincoln Yards) or "public/private partnership" things (Millennium Park, that nonsense between Soldier Field and the South Loop), but when's the last time the City really aggressively pursued a generationally big infrastructure project? CREATE might meet the definition, but it seems to move so slowly. It's known to be needed, and needed to help maintain Chicago's dominance in transshipment and rail, two things we need and want to keep around, but for an amount that's relatively affordable for what it gives us, it's just slowly being done piecemeal. Rebuilding the Pink Line, Green Line, and Dan Ryan branch, extending the Brown Line platforms, the Red Line extension to 130th, and the Belmont Flyover are all important and add value, but aren't really fundamentally changing anything about how Chicago works. The Circle Line would have fundamentally changed Chicago's concept of the Central Area. But a truly grand plan would be even bigger than that. Chicago hasn't had a truly revolutionary transit plan since the 1968 plan that included moving the Loop into a subway and adding subways under Monroe and between Streeterville and McCormick Place. At the time that was proposed, the City saw the future - they saw a time when the West Loop, Streeterville and the South Loop were all going to be big, active parts of greater downtown and need better-than-bus connectivity. But then Chicago lost its mojo for a while and hasn't really gotten it fully back.

Don't get me wrong, I'm very glad that the City has still focused on maintaining what we have and making incremental improvements. While smaller and less extensive, pound for pound, I think the CTA rail system is better than New York's.

And I know budgets are tight and pensions at the City and State level are threatening to turn everything in the state into a budgetary nuclear winter.

But. Still.

Chicago still needs that Monroe/Streeterville/McCormick Place plan - now more than ever. Current plans in Chicago would really benefit from the Circle Line, too. The West Loop Transportation Center was proposed and then promptly shelved as unviable politically and economically, basically also pulling a Clinton Street subway off the table. Electrification of additional Metra lines gets mumbled about occasionally but generally ignored, despite the fact it would really help improve air quality downtown if we stopped running dozens and dozens of huge diesel engines in and out of downtown every day. The City built out a station under Block 37 but their only idea for the connection was a train to O'Hare and without that the station sits wastefully vacant despite the fact that connecting the Red and Blue Lines opens up some potentially interesting routing options. The Dearborn Subway also still has a stub at Lake Street to accommodate a Lake Street subway - that could be activated to send the Green Line underground under the Loop and to the State Street subway and then back up south of Roosevelt, freeing up space on the Loop. There are also portals next to the Blue Line's Congress subway portals at Halsted that could be put to use.

Ultimately, I'd love to see the City say, "Hey, our downtown is growing like crazy. To accommodate what has happened, and facilitate even greater future growth, we're going to:"

1) Change the Orange Line connection to the Loop by building tracks north through the 78 to connect to the Loop at Wells/VanBuren, with new stations at Cermak, Roosevelt and 18th and one in between. $350 million

2) Extend Lower Michigan Ave from Grand Ave to Lake Shore Drive at Oak Street. Do this as part of the LSD rebuild and lakeshore reconstruction being planned. Create a Lower Chicago Ave from just west of Orleans to just west of Fairbanks and implement real BRT for Chicago Ave west of the River to Kedzie. And turn both into bus-only. $225 million (if done as part of an LSD/Lakefront rebuild project)

3) Turn Carroll Street into a proper transitway, connecting to Lower Michigan and making some collection of streets between the east end of Carroll to Navy Pier transit-only, while making transitways in downtown all for dedicated electric buses. Connect the Carroll street transitway to a "bus subway" level in the West Loop Transportation Center, and make parts of Kingsbury bus-only, with dedicated (and enforced) lanes in segments with shared traffic. I want to make these rail streetcars, but unless we can make it a dedicated ROW the whole way, they are useless if they get stuck in traffic. $75 million.

4) Build the West Loop/Streeterville/McCormick Place circulator subway from the Medical district (Ogden/Western) and extend the Streeterville branch from the Hancock west to Clark, then initially north to Armitage but eventually with the goal of going north to Wilson under Broadway, and the south branch extending to 35th Street along the Lake. Can place a yard on railyard land near Western/Ogden. It's 11.5 miles of subway for Ogden/Western, Clark/Armitage, 35th/lakefront routings and roughly 23 stations. Initial cost for those segments, $6.75 billion. Extension to Wilson, $2 billion.

5) Build the West Loop Transportation Center, specifically including a Clinton Street Subway under Halsted from Clybourn to Division then under Kingsbury to Larrabee, then jogging over the Clinton. Then that jogs west to Halsted south of Congress, continuing to 40th, with future plans to extend it east eventually joining Woodlawn to serve Hyde Park, terminating at 63rd. And a subway busway for buses as originally proposed. Initial WLTC plus Clinton Subway going from Halsted/Clybourn to Halsted/40th and a rail yard at 40th: $7.25 billion. Extension east and south to Hyde Park $3.25 billion.

6) Build the Circle Line with the north end far enough north to serve Lincoln Yards (Cortland and Elston) then going east under Armitage Ave to join the north Branch of the West Loop/Streeterville/McCormick lines, and the southwest edge not joining the Orange Line, but following Bubbly Creek to 35th, then a subway to the Lakefront, joining the south end of the West Loop/Streeterville/McCormick subway. So piggy-backing off the circulator. $5 billion.

7) Extend Brown Line to Blue Line. Transfer only, no interlining. $1.5 billion

8) Elevate Brown Line from Western to west of Kedzie, then transition to subway for extension to Blue. Expand yard. $750 million

8) Stations no further apart than 1 mile - 1/2 mile being the target distance for each line - and then DX-16 zoning within 1/4 mile of every station and some sort of at least -4 zoning within 1/4 and 1/2 mile, and an outright ban on new SFH construction within a mile of any new station (or a $1 million tax on any new SFH within a mile of new stations so the really rich can have their cake if they want, while helping pay for the subways). Create a transit-TIF. Free to pass the laws.

Total additions to the system:
~71 stations over ~38 miles (2 stations on existing track, so average of about 1 new station per 1/2 mile of new track)

Total initial costs, without ultimate extensions, rounded up to nearest billion:
$21.9 billion

Total extensions:
$5.25 billion

Financing cost 66.7% financed for 30 years @3%: $9.375 billion

Total long-term costs:
$36.525 billion

Land area within 1/4 mile of new stations (38 stations*.125 square miles):
4.75 square miles

Land area within 1/2 mile of new stations, net of the area 1/4 mile (38 stations *(.5-.125) square miles):
14.25 square miles

Revenue:
Estimated homes within 1/2 mile of new stations, pre-investment: 120,000. Post-investment: 180,000

Estimated increase in property tax revenue from existing homes via appreciation and/or special district: $500
Estimated increase in property tax revenue from new homes: $3,000

Annual property tax residential revenue: (120,000*$500)+(60,000*$3,000)= $240 million per year
Annual retail/commercial property tax revenue (estimated 38 million square feet of space, retail, office, warehouse, etc): $450 million

Total new revenue per year, at completion: $690 million

35-year collection: $24.15 billion
Estimated State contribution: 20% of total $27.15 billion = $5.43 billion
Estimated Federal contribution: 20% of total $27.15 billion = $5.43 billion

Total state, Federal, and property tax collections @35 years:
$35.01 billion

Net unfinanced cost to come from other sources: $1.515 billion or, over 35 years, $43.29 million per year in unfinanced cost.

So for lack of less than $50 million/year, the CTA is making little plans.