[RST500]

Originally Posted by Crawford

I don't see the Bay Area Asian population declining, at least not for pandemic-related reasons.

Was on a work conference call with a demographer earlier this week, and he compared pandemic homes sales/moving truck data, trying to localize changes, using NY, Chicago and Bay Area metros. There appears to be zero change in the San Jose metro, particularly in the Uber-techy Asian areas like Cupertino and Sunnyvale.

Of course we only have a few months of data, but the idea that people will be trading in their absurdly overvalued $2 million Cupertino ranches to work remotely somewhere cheaper doesn't appear to be supported by anything right now. In fact, the only Bay Area county that appeared to show slightly different pandemic-era migration patterns was SF, and even there, the outmigration was pretty modest and very localized to a few downtown neighborhoods.

In the NY and Chicago areas, the suburbs performed better than the city centers during the pandemic, but the difference was pretty modest. In NY metro, Kings (Brooklyn) was actually the highest performing county, though NY County (Manhattan) was the lowest performing county. In Chicago, Lake County was the highest performing county, and I think the lowest performing was some western exurban sprawl county.

This makes sense. I just don't see the same dramatic growth in the Asian population this decade that we saw in in the 2010s.

Nationally we could see a slow down in immigration and more growth will likely shift to cities like Atlanta, Austin, and Dallas.