[MonctonRad]

I'm glad to see Regent currently doing so well in Freddy. I've always liked the mall, but I haven't been inside the mall in probably 18 months or so.

My thoughts:

Regent Mall

Has a strong stable of retailers and currently has the lowest vacancy rate of the "big three" in NB, but I do agree Taeolas that, paradoxically, Regent is the mall most at risk for the greatest fall.

As pointed out, Walmart could decamp for a standalone supercenter, Sears will likely die in the next 3-5 years (according to analysts, that's when their cash reserves will be eaten up) and Cineplex could choose to move to a new location rather than upgrade their current location in the mall. The loss of these three anchors could really knock the stuffing out of the mall. They would be hard to replace given the current Canadian retailing climate.

prediction - Regent will survive, and will prosper
- Walmart will stay and undergo a mini-superstore conversion like at Champlain Place
- Sears will die, but probably will be replaced by a Hudson's Bay store
- Cineplex will likely move, but this space could become attractive for new to market retailers in Fredericton.

McAllister Place

Currently the weakest of the three malls, and is the one in the greatest trouble. There are already big vacancies where Target and Sobeys used to be, and if Sears dies, then there are essentially no anchors left. Another big problem is that East Point is just up the hill, and this serves as a major competitor for the mall. If East Point continues to fill out, it could draw even more retailers from the mall to their own development.

prediction - McAllister Place will survive, but unless Hudson's Bay moves in to replace Sears, there will have to be radical changes, like converting the mall to a retail strip development or a power centre of some form.

Champlain Place

Has more vacancies than usually seen, but the vacancy rate is still only a paltry 3%. Any vacancies in the mall have not been because of any fault on the part of the mall and are more due to national chain bankruptcies or major chains contracting in size. Champlain Place still has more upscale tenants than the other malls in the province and has several unique to market retailers. The main issue with the mall is that, in the past, whenever a vacancy has occurred, it has been rapidly filled. This does not seem to be happening any more.

Prediction - Champlain Place will live on and prosper. Sears will fail, but will rapidly be replaced by Hudson's Bay. I wouldn't be at all surprised if discussions are ongoing right now between CF & HBC. Walmart will stay in the mall as a superstore conversion has already taken place. There are conflicting rumours about Sobeys, but I am currently inclined to believe that Sobeys will stay and will renovate. I'm also of the opinion that CF is preparing to reshuffle stores to allow consolidation of footprints in the mall for new to market retailers. This might be one of the reasons why vacancies are not currently being filled. They may be preparing for the "big fix".