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Old Posted May 14, 2019, 1:52 PM
lio45 lio45 is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
The bombed out neighborhoods of Detroit (and presumably other places) tend to not be particularly dangerous, because they have few or no people.

The highest crime neighborhoods in Detroit are the far NE and far NW sides, and they're fully occupied and suburban looking.
Yes and no.

Sure, the number of actual crimes per year is higher when there are people, but that's not the same thing at all as the odds of being a victim somewhere.

To illustrate:

If you go in nearly empty Neighborhood A, you're almost certain to get murdered or robbed. This happens 100 times a year (to crazy people who somehow go there for some reason).

Meanwhile, very densely inhabited Neighborhood B sees 200 crimes a year, but your odds of anything happening to you there are in the 0%-5% range.

Your numbers-driven logic leads you to think Neighborhood A is twice as safe (half the number of crimes), but in fact Neighborhood B is much safer.

Another factor is that not all crimes "concern you" equally. If Neighborhood C sees 500 crimes a year and Neighborhood D only 100, but in Neighborhood C (which is populated) it's all stuff like conjugal violence, while in Neighborhood D it's only muggings and robbings, then if you're going to walk alone in the streets as a tourist you're safer in Neighborhood C.
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