[markbarbera]

I doubt any of the seats in the area will be changing over. However, seeing as Ignatieff was in Stoney Creek on Saturday the Libs must think this riding is winnable for them.

Nationally, I am not convinced the NDP surge is going to translate into as many additional seats as the popularity polls suggest. Support for NDP is soft in Quebec and there is still a large undecided number in that province (most provinces actually). The NDP also don't have the organization in Quebec to bring out the vote. I am wondering about vote-splitting gaining an advantage for the Conservatives, but even if it does this will only affect a handful of setas and Con gains in Ont will be countered by losses in Quebec and BC.

I'm predicting the following seat projection (assuming NDP Quebec surge does not translate into seats):

Conservative 136 seats
NDP 67 seats
Liberal 66 seats
BQ 38 seats
Greens 1 seat

If the NDP surge actually is fully realized in Quebec today, then we're looking at a completely different ball game:

Conservative 135 seats
NDP 100 seats
Liberal 64 seats
BQ 8 seats
Greens 1 seat

This would be much more interesting outcome as it may mean finally the end of the BQ.

Either outcome, I am predicting a short-lived minority Conservative government, followed quickly by a NDP/Liberal government alliance similar to the 1985 Ontario Government Liberal/NDP Accord.